根據鏈度指標，比特幣（BTC）可能進入了可能的市場冷卻階段。

該分析公司的數據闡明了比特幣已實現的帽和熱帽之間的關係 - 這兩個指標與整體網絡估值有關。

CryptoQuant's analysis of key on-chain metrics has revealed that Bitcoin (BTC) might have entered a possible market cooldown phase.

隱式對關鍵鍊鍊指標的分析表明，比特幣（BTC）可能已經進入了可能的市場冷卻階段。

The analytics firm's data highlighted the relationship between Bitcoin's Realized Cap and Thermo Cap, indicators related to the overall network valuation.

該分析公司的數據強調了比特幣已實現的上限和熱帽之間的關係，這與整體網絡估值有關。

The emergence of a "Dead Cross," where the Thermo Cap dips below the Realized Cap, has historically been observed to correlate with significant Bitcoin price corrections. This observation has put some traders on edge regarding near-term price action.

從歷史上觀察到，“死十字”的出現在其中，熱帽傾角下方下降到已實現的帽子以下，這與比特幣價格更正相關。這一觀察結果使一些交易者在近期價格行動方面處於優勢。

If this past trend repeats, Bitcoin may retreat toward the $75,000 support level, despite broader underlying bullish market sentiment often cited by analysts.

如果過去的趨勢重複出現，儘管分析師經常引用了基本的看漲市場情緒，但比特幣可能會撤退到75,000美元的支持水平。

Understanding Bitcoin's Realized Cap vs. Thermo Cap

了解比特幣的實現帽與熱帽

The Realized Cap represents Bitcoin's aggregate network valuation based on the price at which each coin last moved on the blockchain.

實現的上限根據每個硬幣上次在區塊鏈上移動的價格代表比特幣的總網絡估值。

This metric provides a more accurate picture of the network's true economic value by reflecting actual transaction prices and effectively filtering out likely lost or long-dormant Bitcoin holdings, explained CryptoQuant analyst Bilal Huseynov.

加密分析師Bilal Huseynov解釋說，該指標通過反映實際的交易價格並有效地過濾了可能丟失或長期休眠的比特幣持有量，從而更準確地了解了網絡的真實經濟價值。

The Thermo Cap, conversely, depicts the total cumulative US dollar value of Bitcoin introduced into circulation via miner block rewards paid out over the network's entire history.

相反，Thermo Cap描繪了通過礦工塊獎勵在網絡的整個歷史記錄中付出的循環中的比特幣累積美元價值。

Analysts use the Thermo Cap alongside other valuation metrics like Market Cap and Realized Cap to help gauge potential market cycle tops or bottoms and evaluate net capital flows into or out of the Bitcoin network.

分析師使用Thermo Cap與其他估值指標（如市值）一起使用，並實現了CAP，以幫助衡量潛在的市場週期頂部或底部，並評估淨資本流入或從比特幣網絡中評估。

When the Thermo Cap value crosses below the Realized Cap value, this specific pattern has historically signaled the potential onset of a significant market correction phase for Bitcoin.

當Thermo Cap值越過已實現的CAP值以下時，這種特定模式在歷史上表明了比特幣的重要市場校正階段的潛力。

This is reminiscent of a similar "Dead Cross" that occurred on this indicator before Bitcoin's major 2022 bear market phase, which saw prices fall from around $45,000 down to approximately $16,000.

這讓人聯想到比特幣主要2022年熊市階段之前在該指標上發生的類似“死十字”，該指標的價格從約45,000美元下降到大約16,000美元。

Bitcoin's Bullish Case Despite Red Flags

儘管有危險，但比特幣的看漲案例

Now, with this Thermo Cap/Realized Cap indicator flashing red again according to CryptoQuant's charts, concerns about a potential temporary price reversal are rising among some on-chain analysts.

現在，隨著該熱帽/實現的帽指示劑再次根據加密量的圖表再次閃爍紅色，對潛在的臨時價格逆轉的擔憂正在上升。

Huseynov, who credited fellow analyst Avocado_onchain for highlighting the pattern's recent development, also suggested that based on this signal's history, a price retest of the $75,000 level could potentially occur before Bitcoin resumes any further significant upward momentum.

豪斯諾夫（Huseynov）歸功於分析師鱷梨_onchain（Avocado_onchain）強調了該模式的最新發展，他還建議，基於該信號的歷史，重新測試75,000美元的價格可能會發生在比特幣恢復任何進一步的重要上升勢頭之前。

However, other analysts argue that Bitcoin's underlying strength, driven partly by ongoing institutional demand, remains generally intact.

但是，其他分析人士認為，比特幣的基本強度部分是由持續的機構需求驅動的，它通常仍然完好無損。

For example, investment firm Metaplanet continued its aggressive Bitcoin strategy by buying another 160 BTC (worth over $13 million) recently, bringing its total reported corporate holdings to 4,206 BTC.

例如，投資公司Metaplanet最近購買了160 BTC（價值超過1300萬美元），繼續其積極的比特幣戰略，這使其總報告的公司持有量達到4,206 BTC。

What Should Traders Watch Now?

交易者現在應該看什麼？

Large institutional moves like Metaplanet's provide some underlying support and bullish market momentum signals.

諸如Metaplanet的大型機構舉動提​​供了一些基本的支持和看漲市場勢頭的信號。

But short-term traders should likely remain more cautious as historical data suggests that indicators like the Thermo Cap/Realized Cap cross often precede noticeable price pullbacks, even if the longer-term uptrend remains valid.

但是，由於歷史數據表明，諸如Thermo Cap/已實現的CAP交叉之類的指標通常在價格下跌之前，即使長期的上升趨勢仍然有效，短期交易者可能會保持更加謹慎。

If this "Dead Cross" signal is confirmed by further negative price action, traders will watch key support levels closely.

如果通過進一步的負價格行動確認了“死十字”信號，則交易者將密切關注關鍵支持水平。

Whether Bitcoin will defy this historical on-chain pattern this time, or if a market cooldown period is indeed ahead, remains to be seen.

這次比特幣是否會違抗這種歷史上的鍊鍊模式，或者是否確實在市場上進行冷卻時期，還有待觀察。