金磚國家：邁向世界新秩序

金磚國家剛在喀山舉行高峰會，地緣政治背景十分激烈。烏克蘭戰爭、中東衝突與美國之間的衝突

The BRICS summit in Kazan unfolded against a backdrop of geopolitical volatility, with the war in Ukraine, Middle Eastern conflicts, and the American presidential election all vying for attention. Yet, amidst this turbulence, the BRICS quietly asserted themselves as an alternative to the United States.

金磚國家喀山峰會是在地緣政治動盪的背景下召開的，烏克蘭戰爭、中東衝突、美國總統大選等都成為人們關注的焦點。然而，在這場動盪中，金磚國家卻悄悄宣稱自己是美國的替代者。

BRICS vs America

金磚國家 vs 美國

The BRICS are not merely an economic alliance; they embody a radical civilizational project towards a multipolar world order, breaking away from Western hegemony. This vision, championed by Russia and China, offers a global alternative to the liberal democracy model.

金磚國家不只是一個經濟聯盟，更是一個經濟聯盟。它們體現了一項激進的文明計劃，旨在擺脫西方霸權，建立多極世界秩序。這個由俄羅斯和中國所倡導的願景為自由民主模式提供了全球替代方案。

The BRICS are forging the core of a new revolutionary ideology to reorganize humanity on different foundations: neither Western, Protestant, capitalist, nor liberal. This project could take 30 to 40 years to fully materialize.

金磚國家正在創造一種新的革命意識形態的核心，以在不同的基礎上重組人類：既不是西方的、新教的、資本主義的，也不是自由主義的。該項目可能需要 30 至 40 年才能完全實現。

Russia appears at the forefront of this transformation. Foreign Minister Lavrov recently approved the creation of a center for multipolarity studies, signaling the country’s deep commitment.

俄羅斯走在了這一轉變的最前線。拉夫羅夫外長最近批准成立多極化研究中心，這顯示了該國的堅定承諾。

China, more cautious but equally determined, develops its own vision of multipolarity, tailored to its national interests.

中國則更加謹慎但同樣堅定，根據其國家利益制定了自己的多極化願景。

The BRICS want to kill the dollar

金磚國家想要消滅美元

Several major initiatives are underway towards de-dollarization. At the heart of this transformation lies the ambitious project of a new common reserve currency for member countries.

去美元化的幾項重大措施正在進行中。這一轉變的核心是為成員國建立新的共同儲備貨幣這一雄心勃勃的計畫。

In parallel, the BRICS are actively developing alternative payment systems aimed at replacing the Western SWIFT system.

同時，金磚國家正積極開發替代支付系統，旨在取代西方的SWIFT系統。

The New Development Bank, based in Shanghai, is also undergoing a profound structural reform. The establishment of the BRICS Pay system is another major initiative aimed at facilitating international transactions between member countries.

總部位於上海的新開發銀行也正在進行深刻的結構改革。金磚國家支付系統的建立是旨在便利成員國之間國際交易的另一個重大舉措。

The exchanges between Russia and China perfectly illustrate this evolution, with a gradual abandonment of the dollar in their bilateral transactions.

俄羅斯和中國之間的交流完美地說明了這一演變，在雙邊交易中逐漸放棄美元。

A difficult transition?

一個艱難的轉變？

The shift to a new global economic system faces considerable obstacles.深くこの変革に抵抗を示している。

向新的全球經濟體系的轉變面臨相當大的障礙。

A colossal effort of persuasion is necessary with business leaders to convince them of the advantages of a new global financial architecture.

商界領袖需要付出巨大的說服努力，讓他們相信新的全球金融架構的優勢。

The establishment of new financial infrastructures also poses major technical challenges. The historical weight of the Bretton Woods system, in place for nearly eight decades, does not facilitate this transition.

新型金融基礎設施的建立也帶來了重大的技術挑戰。布雷頓森林體系已經存在了近八年，其歷史影響力並不利於這項轉變。

Africa: the center of gravity of the BRICS

非洲：金磚國家的重心

The African continent is emerging as a major player in this global reconfiguration. The accession of Ethiopia and Egypt, followed by the candidacies of Nigeria, Zimbabwe and other countries, reflects a new phase of decolonization.

非洲大陸正成為這場全球重組的主要參與者。埃塞俄比亞和埃及的加入，以及尼日利亞、辛巴威和其他國家的候選資格，反映了非殖民化的新階段。

Ethiopia occupies a special place in this movement. Never colonized, it symbolizes African pride and resistance against Western powers. Its Christian tradition makes it an important cultural bridge between the various civilizations of the continent.

埃塞俄比亞在這場運動中佔有特殊的地位。它從未被殖民過，象徵非洲的自豪感和對西方強國的抵抗。它的基督教傳統使其成為非洲大陸不同文明之間的重要文化橋樑。

The African continent sees in the BRICS a historic opportunity for transformation. The emancipation from Western influence is a fundamental first objective for these nations.

非洲大陸在金磚國家中看到了歷史轉型機會。擺脫西方影響是這些國家的首要目標。

Nigeria stands out as a central player in this dynamic. Its rich Yoruba culture and considerable demographic weight grant it a special status. The country has the natural resources and human capital necessary to become a major pole in this new global configuration.

尼日利亞在這動態中脫穎而出，成為核心參與者。其豐富的約魯巴文化和相當大的人口比例賦予它特殊的地位。該國擁有成為這一新的全球格局中的重要一極所需的自然資源和人力資本。

The crucial role of Turkey

土耳其的關鍵作用

The potential entry of Turkey into the BRICS marks an unprecedented historic turning point. For the first time, a NATO member country is actively seeking to join this alternative alliance.

土耳其加入金磚國家的可能性標誌著一個前所未有的歷史轉折點。北約成員國首次積極尋求加入此替代聯盟。

Erdogan’s choice reflects a particularly complex and ambitious Eurasian strategy. Maintaining ties with NATO remains a priority for Ankara, which simultaneously cultivates privileged relations with Russia, China, and India.

艾爾段的選擇反映了一個特別複雜和雄心勃勃的歐亞戰略。維持與北約的關係仍然是安卡拉的首要任務，它同時與俄羅斯、中國和印度建立了特殊關係。

This unique position allows Turkey to position itself as an essential pivot power between the West and the East.

這一獨特的地位使土耳其能夠將自己定位為東西方之間重要的樞紐力量。

The Turkish decision faces considerable internal resistance. The Turkish establishment, of which more than 90% remain deeply attached to the country’s Atlantic orientation, expresses its reluctance.

土耳其的決定面臨相當大的內部阻力。土耳其權力集團90%以上仍深信該國面向大西洋的方向，對此表示不情願。

Economic elites continue to favor historical ties with the European Union, fearing the consequences of a too radical alliance shift.

經濟菁英繼續青睞與歐盟的歷史關係，擔心過於激進的聯盟轉變所帶來的後果。

Turkish society itself is marked by a constant tension between its traditional aspirations and its desire for modernization.

土耳其社會本身的特徵是傳統願望與現代化願望之間持續緊張。

The Middle East in transformation

轉型中的中東

The conflict in Gaza has profoundly disrupted regional dynamics in the Middle East.

加薩衝突深刻地擾亂了中東地區的動態。

The normalization process between Israel and Saudi Arabia harshly interrupted in the face of escalating violence.

以色列和沙烏地阿拉伯之間的正常化進程因暴力升級而嚴重中斷。

The ambitious project of the l2U2 corridor, intended to connect India to Europe via the Middle East, is now being questioned.

雄心勃勃的 l2U2 走廊計畫旨在透過中東將印度與歐洲連接起來，但現在正受到質疑。

In light of this situation, several Arab countries have begun to turn towards the BRICS, seeing in them a credible alternative to Western influence.

有鑑於這種情況，一些阿拉伯國家開始轉向金磚國家，認為金磚國家是西方影響力以外的可靠替代方案。

The Saudi kingdom, under the leadership of Prince Mohammed bin Salman, pursues a particularly complex balancing act.

沙烏地王國在穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼親王的領導下，追求一種特別複雜的平衡行為。

The country constantly oscillates between its desire to join the BRICS and the necessity to preserve its historic alliance with the United States.

該國不斷在加入金磚國家的願望和維持與美國歷史聯盟的必要性之間搖擺不定。

Saudi society itself is undergoing a profound transformation, seeking to reconcile the modernization imperatives desired by MBS with the weight of Wahhabi tradition.

沙烏地社會本身正在經歷一場深刻的變革，尋求將穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼所期望的現代化要求與瓦哈比傳統的影響力相調和。

The decisive role of Brazil within the BRICS

巴西在金磚國家的決定性作用

The future Brazilian presidency of the BRICS in 2025 is set to be a decisive moment for the organization. The country has considerable diplomatic capital in Africa, the result of decades of cooperation and cultural exchanges.

巴西將於 2025 年擔任金磚國家主席國，這對該組織來說將是一個決定性時刻。中國在非洲擁有大量外交資本，這是數十年來合作和文化交流的結果。

The deep ties that unite Brazil to the African continent, particularly through the heritage of Afro

巴西與非洲大陸的深厚聯繫，特別是透過非洲傳統