Bitmex联合创始人亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）敦促市场参与者“购买一切”

BITMEX的联合创始人Arthur Hayes敦促市场参与者在美国美联储最近发出信号后“购买所有东西”。

April 11, 2024

2024年4月11日

Good morning traders, and welcome back to Point Of Interest.

早上好交易者，欢迎回到兴趣点。

Last night, I was thinking about the state of play in the markets broadly.

昨晚，我在广泛考虑市场上的运行状况。

Now, I’ve spoken a lot about how rising interest rates, particularly the 10-year US Treasury rate going over 4.5%, could be the tipping point for government intervention.

现在，我已经谈到了很多关于利率上升的利率，尤其是美国财政部的10年期限超过4.5％，这可能是政府干预的转折点。

With such pressure, I’ve argued that the Fed might be pushed to intervene with more liquidity, which could favor risk assets like Bitcoin.

在这种压力下，我认为可能会促使美联储干预更多的流动性，这可能有利于比特币等风险资产。

This scenario, I suggested, could lead to a prolonged upward move in crypto and broader markets.

我建议，这种情况可能会导致加密货币和更广泛的市场的上升延长。

Well, it seems we’re already seeing signs of that intervention, at least in terms of thinking about reducing the pace of rate hikes.

好吧，似乎我们已经看到了这种干预措施的迹象，至少在考虑降低速率加快速度的方面。

Susan Collins, president of the Boston Federal Reserve, said on Monday that while markets are still functioning well, the US central bank stands ready to step in if liquidity becomes strained.

波士顿美联储总裁苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）周一表示，尽管市场运作良好，但美国中央银行随时准备介入流动性，如果流动性变得紧张。

Speaking to the Financial Times, Collins said the central bank has the tools to ensure stability if disruptions arise. But she added that cutting interest rates is not the Fed’s first port of call, as other tools are available to stabilize financial markets when needed.

柯林斯在谈到《金融时报》时说，中央银行有工具，以确保稳定发生。但是她补充说，降低利率不是美联储的第一个临时港口，因为其他工具可以在需要时稳定金融市场。

“The core interest rate tool we use for monetary policy is, certainly not the only tool in the toolkit and probably not the best way to address challenges of liquidity or market functioning,” she said.

她说：“我们用于货币政策的核心利率工具当然不是工具包中唯一的工具，也许不是解决流动性或市场运作挑战的最佳方法。”

These developments come as the global economy is already facing difficulties, with President Donald Trump’s new wave of tariffs adding another layer of uncertainty to financial markets.

这些事态发展是因为全球经济已经面临困难，唐纳德·特朗普总统的新关税浪潮增加了金融市场的另一层不确定性。

The administration has postponed the introduction of new tariffs for 90 days, but it has drastically increased duties on Chinese goods, raising the combined tariff to 145%. In response, China has also increased tariffs on American imports, raising them from 84% to 125%.

政府已将新的关税推迟了90天，但对中国商品的关税大大增加了，将联合关税提高到145％。作为回应，中国还增加了对美国进口的关税，将它们从84％提高到125％。

These reciprocal measures could contribute to heightened inflation in the US, potentially leading to job losses and slower economic growth. Already, Wall Street has witnessed substantial market declines, and the US Treasury market is showing signs of stress.

这些互惠措施可能导致美国通货膨胀率提高，可能导致失业和经济增长降低。华尔街已经目睹了大量市场下降，美国财政市场正在显示压力的迹象。

Despite the temporary suspension of new trade penalties, underlying tensions remain high. However, for me, the combination of macro stress and central bank intervention presents a clear signal: this may be the moment to accumulate assets before the tide turns.

尽管暂时暂停了新的贸易处罚，但潜在的紧张局势仍然很高。但是，对我来说，宏应力和中央银行干预的结合提出了一个明显的信号：这可能是在潮汐转弯之前积累资产的时刻。

As we emerge from a prolonged period of low interest rates and quantitative easing, it’s no surprise that imbalances are emerging in the markets.

随着我们从低利率和量化降低的长时间出现，市场上出现不平衡也就不足为奇了。

These imbalances, in turn, are prompting central bankers to intervene and attempt to restore stability to the financial system.

反过来，这些失衡又促使中央银行的干预并试图恢复对金融体系的稳定。

And with the Fed likely to pivot on interest rates this year, it appears we’re entering a period where the central bank will be intervening to keep markets afloat.

由于美联储今年可能会涉及利率，因此我们似乎进入了一个时期，中央银行将干预以保持市场流动。

This, in my view, is good news for traders and investors, as it could lead to sustained upward pressure on asset prices.

我认为，这对贸易商和投资者来说是个好消息，因为它可能导致资产价格的持续压力。

So, my advice to market participants is simple: buy everything.

因此，我对市场参与者的建议很简单：购买所有东西。

With central banks stepping in to stabilize the system, and imbalances being corrected, it’s a favorable environment for traders and investors across the board.

随着中央银行介入以稳定系统并纠正了失衡，这对于全面的交易者和投资者来说是一个有利的环境。

From Bitcoin to US equities, there are opportunities to be seized in this shifting market landscape.

从比特币到美国股票，在这种不断变化的市场格局中，有机会被抓住。