Bitmex聯合創始人亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）敦促市場參與者“購買一切”

BITMEX的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes敦促市場參與者在美國美聯儲最近發出信號後“購買所有東西”。

April 11, 2024

2024年4月11日

Good morning traders, and welcome back to Point Of Interest.

早上好交易者，歡迎回到興趣點。

Last night, I was thinking about the state of play in the markets broadly.

昨晚，我在廣泛考慮市場上的運行狀況。

Now, I’ve spoken a lot about how rising interest rates, particularly the 10-year US Treasury rate going over 4.5%, could be the tipping point for government intervention.

現在，我已經談到了很多關於利率上升的利率，尤其是美國財政部的10年期限超過4.5％，這可能是政府乾預的轉折點。

With such pressure, I’ve argued that the Fed might be pushed to intervene with more liquidity, which could favor risk assets like Bitcoin.

在這種壓力下，我認為可能會促使美聯儲干預更多的流動性，這可能有利於比特幣等風險資產。

This scenario, I suggested, could lead to a prolonged upward move in crypto and broader markets.

我建議，這種情況可能會導致加密貨幣和更廣泛的市場的上升延長。

Well, it seems we’re already seeing signs of that intervention, at least in terms of thinking about reducing the pace of rate hikes.

好吧，似乎我們已經看到了這種干預措施的跡象，至少在考慮降低速率加快速度的方面。

Susan Collins, president of the Boston Federal Reserve, said on Monday that while markets are still functioning well, the US central bank stands ready to step in if liquidity becomes strained.

波士頓美聯儲總裁蘇珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）週一表示，儘管市場運作良好，但美國中央銀行隨時準備介入流動性，如果流動性變得緊張。

Speaking to the Financial Times, Collins said the central bank has the tools to ensure stability if disruptions arise. But she added that cutting interest rates is not the Fed’s first port of call, as other tools are available to stabilize financial markets when needed.

柯林斯在談到《金融時報》時說，中央銀行有工具，以確保穩定發生。但是她補充說，降低利率不是美聯儲的第一個臨時港口，因為其他工具可以在需要時穩定金融市場。

“The core interest rate tool we use for monetary policy is, certainly not the only tool in the toolkit and probably not the best way to address challenges of liquidity or market functioning,” she said.

她說：“我們用於貨幣政策的核心利率工具當然不是工具包中唯一的工具，也許不是解決流動性或市場運作挑戰的最佳方法。”

These developments come as the global economy is already facing difficulties, with President Donald Trump’s new wave of tariffs adding another layer of uncertainty to financial markets.

這些事態發展是因為全球經濟已經面臨困難，唐納德·特朗普總統的新關稅浪潮增加了金融市場的另一層不確定性。

The administration has postponed the introduction of new tariffs for 90 days, but it has drastically increased duties on Chinese goods, raising the combined tariff to 145%. In response, China has also increased tariffs on American imports, raising them from 84% to 125%.

政府已將新的關稅推遲了90天，但對中國商品的關稅大大增加了，將聯合關稅提高到145％。作為回應，中國還增加了對美國進口的關稅，將它們從84％提高到125％。

These reciprocal measures could contribute to heightened inflation in the US, potentially leading to job losses and slower economic growth. Already, Wall Street has witnessed substantial market declines, and the US Treasury market is showing signs of stress.

這些互惠措施可能導緻美國通貨膨脹率提高，可能導致失業和經濟增長降低。華爾街已經目睹了大量市場下降，美國財政市場正在顯示壓力的跡象。

Despite the temporary suspension of new trade penalties, underlying tensions remain high. However, for me, the combination of macro stress and central bank intervention presents a clear signal: this may be the moment to accumulate assets before the tide turns.

儘管暫時暫停了新的貿易處罰，但潛在的緊張局勢仍然很高。但是，對我來說，宏應力和中央銀行干預的結合提出了一個明顯的信號：這可能是在潮汐轉彎之前積累資產的時刻。

As we emerge from a prolonged period of low interest rates and quantitative easing, it’s no surprise that imbalances are emerging in the markets.

隨著我們從低利率和量化降低的長時間出現，市場上出現不平衡也就不足為奇了。

These imbalances, in turn, are prompting central bankers to intervene and attempt to restore stability to the financial system.

反過來，這些失衡又促使中央銀行的干預並試圖恢復對金融體系的穩定。

And with the Fed likely to pivot on interest rates this year, it appears we’re entering a period where the central bank will be intervening to keep markets afloat.

由於美聯儲今年可能會涉及利率，因此我們似乎進入了一個時期，中央銀行將乾預以保持市場流動。

This, in my view, is good news for traders and investors, as it could lead to sustained upward pressure on asset prices.

我認為，這對貿易商和投資者來說是個好消息，因為它可能導致資產價格的持續壓力。

So, my advice to market participants is simple: buy everything.

因此，我對市場參與者的建議很簡單：購買所有東西。

With central banks stepping in to stabilize the system, and imbalances being corrected, it’s a favorable environment for traders and investors across the board.

隨著中央銀行介入以穩定係統並糾正了失衡，這對於全面的交易者和投資者來說是一個有利的環境。

From Bitcoin to US equities, there are opportunities to be seized in this shifting market landscape.

從比特幣到美國股票，在這種不斷變化的市場格局中，有機會被抓住。