比特币人员应为税务的迫在眉睫的税款做准备

破碎的钱的作者林·奥尔登（Lyn Alden）为财政统治提出了有力的理由 - 政府支出决定货币政策的观念

Lyn Alden, author of Broken Money, has made a strong case for fiscal dominance—the idea that government spending dictates monetary policy rather than the other way around. Her now-famous meme, “Nothing stops this train,” encapsulates the relentless trajectory of government debt and intervention.

破碎的金钱的作者林恩·奥尔登（Lyn Alden）为财政主导地位做出了有力的理由，即政府支出决定货币政策而不是相反的想法。她现在著名的模因“没有什么阻止这列火车”，它封装了政府债务和干预的不懈轨迹。

But what if something—however unlikely—could slow the train down?

但是，如果某事（无论如何）可能会放慢火车呢？

Enter austerity. Not that it’s necessarily achievable in any meaningful sense, but for the first time in years, it’s being hinted at. Markets are adjusting, not because they believe it will happen, but because they’re starting to wonder if policymakers are actually serious. With the shakeup brought by Trump, Musk, and recent USAID revelations, the conversation has shifted. For the first time in a long time, there’s uncertainty around whether fiscal dominance can continue unchecked.

输入Austerity。在任何有意义的意义上，这都不一定是可以实现的，而是多年来第一次被暗示。市场正在调整，不是因为他们认为这将发生，而是因为他们开始怀疑决策者是否真的很严重。随着特朗普，马斯克和最近的美国国际开发署启示的重组，对话发生了变化。长期以来，第一次，财政主导地位是否可以继续不受组织。

When a country is deep in a fibber-cutter, policymakers have four main levers they can pull:

当一个国家深入纤维切口时，政策制定者可以将四个主要的杠杆拖走：

For years, the austerity lever was a joke. Now? It’s at least part of the discussion—and likely part of a blended approach. And if the season of fiscal dominance continues, tax policy will be the first place where real, actionable changes show up.

多年来，紧缩杠杆一直是个玩笑。现在？这至少是讨论的一部分，也是混合方法的一部分。如果财政主导地位持续，税收政策将是出现真实，可行的变化的第一个地方。

For bitcoin holders, this isn’t just another macro shift to passively observe. Unlike inflation or debt restructuring—forces that are largely out of individual control—a tax policy change is one area where proactive planning can actually make a difference in your financial life. The right strategies could turn coming changes into opportunities rather than financial landmines.

对于比特币持有人来说，这不仅仅是要被动观察的宏观转变。与通货膨胀或债务重组（主要是个人控制的福音）不同，税收政策变更是一个积极计划实际上可以改变您的财务生活的领域。正确的策略可以将变化变成机遇而不是金融地雷。

Five Possible Taxation Scenarios for 2025

2025年的五种可能的税收情况

With fiscal dominance running the show, tax policy is in flux. The next 6-12 months will likely land in one of these five tax regimes—each with distinct implications for bitcoin holders.

随着财政主导地位，税收政策处于不断变化的状态。接下来的6-12个月可能会陷入这五个税收制度之一 - 对比特币持有人产生了明显的影响。

1. TCJA Sunset (5% Probability)

1。TCJA日落（概率为5％）

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) sunsets, and Congress does… nothing. Income taxes jump, estate tax exemptions shrink, and capital gains get more expensive. The bureaucratic equivalent of ghosting your tax bill.

《减税与就业法》（TCJA）日落，国会做……什么都没有。所得税跳高，遗产免税收益缩水，资本收益变得更加昂贵。官僚主义等同于您的税单。

2. TCJA Extension (10% Probability)

2。TCJA扩展（10％概率）

Congress extends the existing tax cuts without any new bells or whistles. A true “kick the can” move, leaving the current framework in place for a few more years.

国会在没有任何新的铃铛或哨子的情况下扩大了现有的减税。真正的“踢罐”移动，将当前的框架放置了几年。

3. TCJA Extension with Adjustments (70% Probability)

3。带调整的TCJA扩展（70％概率）

This is the base case: TCJA remains, but with modifications. Trump has hinted at eliminating taxes on tips, removing taxes on Social Security benefits, exempting overtime pay, and allowing deductions for auto loan interest on American-made cars. Additional incentives for domestic production, such as reducing the corporate tax rate and reinstating 100% bonus depreciation, could also be on the TABLE. The possibility of reducing capital gains taxes or extending estate tax exemptions may further shape tax planning opportunities. And the grand-daddy of them all…

这是基本情况：TCJA仍然存在，但进行了修改。特朗普暗示，取消有关提示的税款，消除有关社会保障福利的税收，免除加班费，并允许扣除美国制造的汽车的汽车贷款利息。国内生产的额外激励措施（例如降低公司税率和恢复100％奖金折旧）也可能在桌面上。减少资本利得税或扩大遗产免税的可能性可能会进一步塑造税收计划机会。和他们的宏伟爸爸……

4. Bitcoin Capital Gains Exemption (10% Probability)

4。豁免比特币资本收益（概率10％）

A true curveball: bitcoin gets a special status, exempting it from capital gains tax, much like gold once was. This would open up HUGE tax planning opportunities, from gain harvesting to retirement account repositioning.

真正的曲线球：比特币具有特殊的地位，将其免除资本收益税，就像曾经的黄金一样。从收获到退休帐户重新定位，这将为巨大的税收计划机会。

5. The Death of the IRS (5% Probability)

5。国税局的死亡（概率为5％）

We never thought we’d say it, but talk of replacing the IRS with an “External Revenue Service” has surfaced. What would that mean for enforcement? Audits? Loopholes? It’s uncharted territory, but worth watching.

我们从没想过我们会这么说，但是谈论用“外部税收服务”代替美国国税局已经浮出水面了。这对执法意味着什么？审核？漏洞？这是未知的领土，但值得一看。

Three Wild Cards That Could Shake Everything Up

三张可以动摇一切的通配符

Beyond these five scenarios, three unpredictable forces could upend everything—and each has significant tax implications for bitcoin holders.

除了这五种情况之外，三个不可预测的力量可以颠覆一切，每种力量都对比特币持有人产生重大税收影响。

1. A Liquidity Crisis and Emergency Tax Legislation

1。流动性危机和紧急税收立法

Imagine a sudden financial crisis. The government panics, money printers go brrrr, and emergency stimulus checks start flying. If the Federal Reserve intervenes aggressively, scarce assets like bitcoin could surge—making timing and tax planning for gains more important than ever.

想象一下突然的金融危机。政府的恐慌，金钱打印机会brrrr和紧急刺激检查开始飞行。如果美联储积极介入，那么像比特币这样的稀缺资产可能会激增 - 对收益的时机和税收计划比以往任何时候都更为重要。

2. A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

2。战略比特币储备

What was once speculation has now become policy. A U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve has been established quietly via executive order—but so far, only as a holding, not an active accumulation strategy. The implications? The federal government now officially possesses bitcoin, a major shift in its stance toward the asset.

曾经猜测已经成为政策。美国战略比特币储备是通过行政命令安静地建立的，但到目前为止，仅作为持有，而不是积极的积累策略。含义？联邦政府现在正式拥有比特币，这是其对资产的立场的重大转变。

The key question: Will the U.S. transition from passive holder to active buyer? If so, this would mark the first time a major nation-state has become a consistent, strategic participant in bitcoin markets. A steady sovereign buyer would be a structural shift, potentially dampening bitcoin’s volatility and reinforcing its role as a macroeconomic hedge.

关键问题：美国是否会从被动持有人过渡到活跃的买家？如果是这样，这将标志着主要的民族国家首次成为比特币市场中的一致，战略参与者。稳定的主权买家将是结构性的转变，可能会削弱比特币的波动，并加强其作为宏观经济对冲的作用。

Would this accumulation continue even under a season of Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion? If so, it would amount to a form of money printing to acquire bitcoin—an undeniably accelerationist move. Whether accumulation begins or not, the mere presence of bitcoin on the government balance sheet alters its future tax and regulatory treatment, a factor investors must consider in long-term planning.

即使在美联储资产负债表扩展的季节，这种积累仍会继续吗？如果是这样，将构成一种货币印刷形式以获取比特币，这是不可否认的加速行动。无论积累是否开始，政府资产负债表上仅存在比特币会改变其未来税收和监管待遇，投资者必须在长期计划中考虑。

3. Tariff Shock

3。关税冲击