比特幣人員應為稅務的迫在眉睫的稅款做準備

破碎的錢的作者林·奧爾登（Lyn Alden）為財政統治提出了有力的理由 - 政府支出決定貨幣政策的觀念

Lyn Alden, author of Broken Money, has made a strong case for fiscal dominance—the idea that government spending dictates monetary policy rather than the other way around. Her now-famous meme, “Nothing stops this train,” encapsulates the relentless trajectory of government debt and intervention.

破碎的金錢的作者林恩·奧爾登（Lyn Alden）為財政主導地位做出了有力的理由，即政府支出決定貨幣政策而不是相反的想法。她現在著名的模因“沒有什麼阻止這列火車”，它封裝了政府債務和乾預的不懈軌跡。

But what if something—however unlikely—could slow the train down?

但是，如果某事（無論如何）可能會放慢火車呢？

Enter austerity. Not that it’s necessarily achievable in any meaningful sense, but for the first time in years, it’s being hinted at. Markets are adjusting, not because they believe it will happen, but because they’re starting to wonder if policymakers are actually serious. With the shakeup brought by Trump, Musk, and recent USAID revelations, the conversation has shifted. For the first time in a long time, there’s uncertainty around whether fiscal dominance can continue unchecked.

輸入Austerity。在任何有意義的意義上，這都不一定是可以實現的，而是多年來第一次被暗示。市場正在調整，不是因為他們認為這將發生，而是因為他們開始懷疑決策者是否真的很嚴重。隨著特朗普，馬斯克和最近的美國國際開發署啟示的重組，對話發生了變化。長期以來，第一次，財政主導地位是否可以繼續不受組織。

When a country is deep in a fibber-cutter, policymakers have four main levers they can pull:

當一個國家深入纖維切口時，政策制定者可以將四個主要的槓桿拖走：

For years, the austerity lever was a joke. Now? It’s at least part of the discussion—and likely part of a blended approach. And if the season of fiscal dominance continues, tax policy will be the first place where real, actionable changes show up.

多年來，緊縮槓桿一直是個玩笑。現在？這至少是討論的一部分，也是混合方法的一部分。如果財政主導地位持續，稅收政策將是出現真實，可行的變化的第一個地方。

For bitcoin holders, this isn’t just another macro shift to passively observe. Unlike inflation or debt restructuring—forces that are largely out of individual control—a tax policy change is one area where proactive planning can actually make a difference in your financial life. The right strategies could turn coming changes into opportunities rather than financial landmines.

對於比特幣持有人來說，這不僅僅是要被動觀察的宏觀轉變。與通貨膨脹或債務重組（主要是個人控制的福音）不同，稅收政策變更是一個積極計劃實際上可以改變您的財務生活的領域。正確的策略可以將變化變成機遇而不是金融地雷。

Five Possible Taxation Scenarios for 2025

2025年的五種可能的稅收情況

With fiscal dominance running the show, tax policy is in flux. The next 6-12 months will likely land in one of these five tax regimes—each with distinct implications for bitcoin holders.

隨著財政主導地位，稅收政策處於不斷變化的狀態。接下來的6-12個月可能會陷入這五個稅收制度之一 - 對比特幣持有人產生了明顯的影響。

1. TCJA Sunset (5% Probability)

1。 TCJA日落（概率為5％）

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) sunsets, and Congress does… nothing. Income taxes jump, estate tax exemptions shrink, and capital gains get more expensive. The bureaucratic equivalent of ghosting your tax bill.

《減稅與就業法》（TCJA）日落，國會做……什麼都沒有。所得稅跳高，遺產免稅收益縮水，資本收益變得更加昂貴。官僚主義等同於您的稅單。

2. TCJA Extension (10% Probability)

2。 TCJA擴展（10％概率）

Congress extends the existing tax cuts without any new bells or whistles. A true “kick the can” move, leaving the current framework in place for a few more years.

國會在沒有任何新的鈴鐺或哨子的情況下擴大了現有的減稅。真正的“踢罐”移動，將當前的框架放置了幾年。

3. TCJA Extension with Adjustments (70% Probability)

3。帶調整的TCJA擴展（70％概率）

This is the base case: TCJA remains, but with modifications. Trump has hinted at eliminating taxes on tips, removing taxes on Social Security benefits, exempting overtime pay, and allowing deductions for auto loan interest on American-made cars. Additional incentives for domestic production, such as reducing the corporate tax rate and reinstating 100% bonus depreciation, could also be on the TABLE. The possibility of reducing capital gains taxes or extending estate tax exemptions may further shape tax planning opportunities. And the grand-daddy of them all…

這是基本情況：TCJA仍然存在，但進行了修改。特朗普暗示，取消有關提示的稅款，消除有關社會保障福利的稅收，免除加班費，並允許扣除美國製造的汽車的汽車貸款利息。國內生產的額外激勵措施（例如降低公司稅率和恢復100％獎金折舊）也可能在桌面上。減少資本利得稅或擴大遺產免稅的可能性可能會進一步塑造稅收計劃機會。和他們的宏偉爸爸……

4. Bitcoin Capital Gains Exemption (10% Probability)

4。豁免比特幣資本收益（概率10％）

A true curveball: bitcoin gets a special status, exempting it from capital gains tax, much like gold once was. This would open up HUGE tax planning opportunities, from gain harvesting to retirement account repositioning.

真正的曲線球：比特幣具有特殊的地位，將其免除資本收益稅，就像曾經的黃金一樣。從收穫到退休帳戶重新定位，這將為巨大的稅收計劃機會。

5. The Death of the IRS (5% Probability)

5。國稅局的死亡（概率為5％）

We never thought we’d say it, but talk of replacing the IRS with an “External Revenue Service” has surfaced. What would that mean for enforcement? Audits? Loopholes? It’s uncharted territory, but worth watching.

我們從沒想過我們會這麼說，但是談論用“外部稅收服務”代替美國國稅局已經浮出水面了。這對執法意味著什麼？審核？漏洞？這是未知的領土，但值得一看。

Three Wild Cards That Could Shake Everything Up

三張可以動搖一切的通配符

Beyond these five scenarios, three unpredictable forces could upend everything—and each has significant tax implications for bitcoin holders.

除了這五種情況之外，三個不可預測的力量可以顛覆一切，每種力量都對比特幣持有人產生重大稅收影響。

1. A Liquidity Crisis and Emergency Tax Legislation

1。流動性危機和緊急稅收立法

Imagine a sudden financial crisis. The government panics, money printers go brrrr, and emergency stimulus checks start flying. If the Federal Reserve intervenes aggressively, scarce assets like bitcoin could surge—making timing and tax planning for gains more important than ever.

想像一下突然的金融危機。政府的恐慌，金錢打印機會brrrr和緊急刺激檢查開始飛行。如果美聯儲積極介入，那麼像比特幣這樣的稀缺資產可能會激增 - 對收益的時機和稅收計劃比以往任何時候都更為重要。

2. A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

2。戰略比特幣儲備

What was once speculation has now become policy. A U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve has been established quietly via executive order—but so far, only as a holding, not an active accumulation strategy. The implications? The federal government now officially possesses bitcoin, a major shift in its stance toward the asset.

曾經猜測已經成為政策。美國戰略比特幣儲備是通過行政命令安靜地建立的，但到目前為止，僅作為持有，而不是積極的積累策略。含義？聯邦政府現在正式擁有比特幣，這是其對資產的立場的重大轉變。

The key question: Will the U.S. transition from passive holder to active buyer? If so, this would mark the first time a major nation-state has become a consistent, strategic participant in bitcoin markets. A steady sovereign buyer would be a structural shift, potentially dampening bitcoin’s volatility and reinforcing its role as a macroeconomic hedge.

關鍵問題：美國是否會從被動持有人過渡到活躍的買家？如果是這樣，這將標誌著主要的民族國家首次成為比特幣市場中的一致，戰略參與者。穩定的主權買家將是結構性的轉變，可能會削弱比特幣的波動，並加強其作為宏觀經濟對沖的作用。

Would this accumulation continue even under a season of Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion? If so, it would amount to a form of money printing to acquire bitcoin—an undeniably accelerationist move. Whether accumulation begins or not, the mere presence of bitcoin on the government balance sheet alters its future tax and regulatory treatment, a factor investors must consider in long-term planning.

即使在美聯儲資產負債表擴展的季節，這種積累仍會繼續嗎？如果是這樣，將構成一種貨幣印刷形式以獲取比特幣，這是不可否認的加速行動。無論積累是否開始，政府資產負債表上僅存在比特幣會改變其未來稅收和監管待遇，投資者必須在長期計劃中考慮。

3. Tariff Shock

3。關稅衝擊