比特币在 2024 年飙升了 57%，去年涨幅超过 90%。以下是值得关注的成败因素

对于比特币来说，这是重要的一年，价格大幅上涨，与多年来该代币的一些最重要的发展相匹配。

Bitcoin's price has surged 57% so far in 2024, and it's up over 90% in the last year. Investors and analysts are still bullish, eyeing more gains in the year to come even as election uncertainty looms.

2024 年迄今为止，比特币的价格已飙升 57%，去年更是上涨了 90% 以上。尽管选举不确定性迫在眉睫，投资者和分析师仍然看涨，预计未来一年会有更多涨幅。

"I'm really bullish for 2025," Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, told Business Insider. "There are all these positive trends."

Bitwise 资产管理公司首席投资官 Matt Hougan 告诉《商业内幕》：“我对 2025 年非常乐观。” “有所有这些积极的趋势。”

Still, other market pros told BI that there are some headwinds building that could cause the rally to stumble.

尽管如此，其他市场专业人士告诉BI，一些阻力正在形成，可能会导致涨势受挫。

Here are the make-or-break factors to watch.

以下是值得关注的成败因素。

Central bank policy could make or break bitcoin in 2025

2025 年央行政策可能决定比特币的成败

Hougan pointed to a broad set of monetary easing cycles from central banks as a key bullish driver for bitcoin.

霍根指出，央行一系列广泛的货币宽松周期是比特币看涨的关键驱动力。

Central bank easing typically boosts risk assets like crypto. When interest rate volatility was high over the summer, Bitcoin slumped as investors poured into defensive areas of the market.

央行的宽松政策通常会提振加密货币等风险资产。当夏季利率波动较大时，随着投资者涌入市场的防御领域，比特币暴跌。

The Federal Reserve's big rate cut last month fueled a bitcoin rally, and crypto experts say the broader central bank easing cycle that's kicking off around the world should reinforce the gains.

美联储上个月的大幅降息推动了比特币的上涨，加密货币专家表示，全球范围内开始的更广泛的央行宽松周期应该会加强比特币的涨幅。

CoinDesk Indices' Andy Baehr says that monetary easing should fuel the cryptocurrency's rise in the months ahead.

CoinDesk Indices 的 Andy Baehr 表示，货币宽松政策应该会在未来几个月推动加密货币的上涨。

"This is something the market can count on for months or quarters. The mood changed right away," Baehr said, pointing to the immediate rise in bitcoin's price as well as an increase in other indicators of strength like rising exchange volumes.

Baehr 表示：“这是市场可以在数月或几个季度内信赖的东西。情绪立即发生变化。”他指出比特币价格立即上涨，以及交易量上升等其他强势指标的增加。

Regulatory uncertainty could hamper bitcoin's gains

监管不确定性可能会阻碍比特币的上涨

Less bullish for crypto would be a more muscular regulatory approach to the market, and uncertainty about the oversight regime is a headwind.

对加密货币的不那么看好将是对市场采取更强有力的监管方式，而监管制度的不确定性是一个阻力。

"The worst outcome for crypto is one that sustains uncertainty around the direction of crypto legislation and regulation," Hougan said, adding that the election outcomes could throw a wrench into the equation.

Hougan 表示：“对于加密货币来说，最糟糕的结果是加密货币立法和监管方向持续存在不确定性。”他补充说，选举结果可能会扰乱局势。

"We have a hunch of what a Harris administration or a Trump administration would do, but we know that those promises don't always come through, and you can have harsh results," Hougan said, pointing to when crypto was excited for Gary Gensler to take over as SEC chair before proving strict on crypto regulation.

“我们对哈里斯政府或特朗普政府会做什么有预感，但我们知道这些承诺并不总是能兑现，而且可能会产生严酷的结果，”霍根说，他指的是加密货币对加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 感到兴奋的时候在证明对加密货币监管严格之前接任 SEC 主席。

Hougan said, though, that he thinks bitcoin appears to be in the clear with regulators after the SEC approved the spot ETFs.

不过，Hougan 表示，他认为在 SEC 批准现货 ETF 后，监管机构似乎已经清楚了比特币的情况。

The presidential election will likely determine bitcoin's path

总统选举可能会决定比特币的走向

The US presidential election also remains top of mind for crypto investors.

美国总统大选仍然是加密货币投资者最关心的问题。

While both Trump and Harris are seen as pro-crypto, it's been Trump who has embraced the market publicly in recent months, speaking at events and even launching his own NFTs. This has led the market to believe he'd be the one to truly allow it to flourish and bitcoin has rallied as Trump's odds of winning the election have risen.

尽管特朗普和哈里斯都被视为支持加密货币，但近几个月来，特朗普公开拥抱市场，在活动中发表讲话，甚至推出了自己的 NFT。这让市场相信他将是真正让比特币蓬勃发展的人，随着特朗普赢得选举的可能性上升，比特币也随之上涨。

A Trump win could shoot bitcoin to $125,000 by the end of the year, a jump of over 80% from Friday's prices, according to Standard Charter analyst Geoff Kendrick.

渣打银行 (Standard Charter) 分析师杰夫·肯德里克 (Geoff Kendrick) 表示，如果特朗普获胜，比特币价格可能会在年底前飙升至 125,000 美元，较上周五的价格上涨 80% 以上。

But even if odds shift in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris, bitcoin will likely still rally, Hougan said.

但胡根表示，即使赔率转向副总统卡马拉·哈里斯，比特币可能仍会上涨。

He says a Trump win would be an accelerant for crypto in the few months after the election, but bitcoin will likely do well in the long term regardless, as Harris appears to be friendlier to crypto than President Joe Biden.

他表示，特朗普的胜利将在大选后的几个月内促进加密货币的发展，但无论如何，从长远来看，比特币可能会表现良好，因为哈里斯似乎比乔·拜登总统对加密货币更友好。

"Two years ago, crypto was talking about Sam Bankman Fried and the biggest financial crime of all time, and crypto was completely toxic. Today, both presidential campaigns are posturing in positive ways toward the crypto industry," Hougan said.

“两年前，加密货币正在谈论萨姆·班克曼·弗里德（Sam Bankman Fried）和有史以来最大的金融犯罪，而加密货币是完全有毒的。今天，两次总统竞选都以积极的方式对待加密货币行业，”Hougan 说。

After the election, bitcoin's path looks less clear

大选后，比特币的道路看起来不太明朗

As markets fixate on the result of the November contest, there's no clear catalyst for further gains after that.

由于市场关注 11 月比赛的结果，因此此后没有进一步上涨的明显催化剂。

"Sharks need to swim to survive. If they stop they will die," Hougan said, adding, "Bitcoin is sort of like that. It is, in the end, a narrative- and growth-focused entity."

“鲨鱼需要游泳才能生存。如果它们停下来就会死，”霍根说，并补充道，“比特币有点像这样。归根结底，它是一个以叙事和增长为中心的实体。”

He says, though, that the narrative could point toward greater institutional adoption, or toward more potentially real-world applications for crypto.

不过，他表示，这种叙述可能会指向更大的机构采用，或者指向更多潜在的现实世界的加密应用。

Spot ETFs will gain momentum, boosting bitcoin

现货ETF将获得动力，提振比特币

Among the bullish drivers, the spot ETFs that drove a rally earlier this year will likely still have a positive impact.

在看涨的推动因素中，今年早些时候推动上涨的现货 ETF 可能仍会产生积极影响。

"I think Bitcoin ETF flows will accelerate in Q4 and then accelerate again in 2025. And I don't think that's priced into the market or expected," Hougan said.

“我认为比特币 ETF 流量将在第四季度加速，然后在 2025 年再次加速。我认为这并未反映在市场中或预期中，”Hougan 表示。

Baehr said the rising prominence of bitcoin ETFs and their backing from firms like BlackRock will help the crypto push further into the mainstream.

Baehr 表示，比特币 ETF 的日益突出以及贝莱德等公司的支持将有助于加密货币进一步进入主流。

"I think that the asset class now is able to participate in more serious conversations, and so the price of bitcoin is just going to enjoy that universal expansion and that network enrichment," Baehr said.

贝尔表示：“我认为该资产类别现在能够参与更严肃的对话，因此比特币的价格将享受普遍扩张和网络丰富。”