比特幣在 2024 年飆升了 57%，去年漲幅超過 90%。以下是值得關注的成敗因素

對於比特幣來說，這是重要的一年，價格大幅上漲，與多年來該代幣的一些最重要的發展相匹配。

Bitcoin's price has surged 57% so far in 2024, and it's up over 90% in the last year. Investors and analysts are still bullish, eyeing more gains in the year to come even as election uncertainty looms.

2024 年迄今為止，比特幣的價格已飆升 57%，去年上漲了 90% 以上。儘管選舉不確定性迫在眉睫，投資者和分析師仍看漲，預計未來一年將有更多漲幅。

"I'm really bullish for 2025," Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, told Business Insider. "There are all these positive trends."

Bitwise 資產管理公司首席投資長 Matt Hougan 告訴《商業內幕》：“我對 2025 年非常樂觀。” “有所有這些積極的趨勢。”

Still, other market pros told BI that there are some headwinds building that could cause the rally to stumble.

儘管如此，其他市場專業人士告訴BI，一些阻力正在形成，可能會導致漲勢受挫。

Here are the make-or-break factors to watch.

以下是值得關注的成敗因素。

Central bank policy could make or break bitcoin in 2025

2025 年央行政策可能決定比特幣的成敗

Hougan pointed to a broad set of monetary easing cycles from central banks as a key bullish driver for bitcoin.

霍根指出，央行一系列廣泛的貨幣寬鬆週期是比特幣看漲的關鍵驅動力。

Central bank easing typically boosts risk assets like crypto. When interest rate volatility was high over the summer, Bitcoin slumped as investors poured into defensive areas of the market.

央行的寬鬆政策通常會提振加密貨幣等風險資產。當夏季利率波動較大時，隨著投資者湧入市場的防禦領域，比特幣暴跌。

The Federal Reserve's big rate cut last month fueled a bitcoin rally, and crypto experts say the broader central bank easing cycle that's kicking off around the world should reinforce the gains.

聯準會上個月的大幅降息推動了比特幣的上漲，加密貨幣專家表示，全球範圍內開始的更廣泛的央行寬鬆週期應該會加強比特幣的漲幅。

CoinDesk Indices' Andy Baehr says that monetary easing should fuel the cryptocurrency's rise in the months ahead.

CoinDesk Indices 的 Andy Baehr 表示，貨幣寬鬆政策應該會在未來幾個月推動加密貨幣的上漲。

"This is something the market can count on for months or quarters. The mood changed right away," Baehr said, pointing to the immediate rise in bitcoin's price as well as an increase in other indicators of strength like rising exchange volumes.

Baehr 表示：「這是市場可以在數月或幾個季度內信賴的東西。情緒立即發生變化。」他指出比特幣價格立即上漲，以及交易量上升等其他強勢指標的增加。

Regulatory uncertainty could hamper bitcoin's gains

監管不確定性可能會阻礙比特幣的上漲

Less bullish for crypto would be a more muscular regulatory approach to the market, and uncertainty about the oversight regime is a headwind.

對加密貨幣的不那麼看好將是對市場採取更強有力的監管方式，而監管制度的不確定性是一個阻力。

"The worst outcome for crypto is one that sustains uncertainty around the direction of crypto legislation and regulation," Hougan said, adding that the election outcomes could throw a wrench into the equation.

Hougan 表示：「對於加密貨幣來說，最糟糕的結果是加密貨幣立法和監管方向持續存在不確定性。」他補充說，選舉結果可能會擾亂局勢。

"We have a hunch of what a Harris administration or a Trump administration would do, but we know that those promises don't always come through, and you can have harsh results," Hougan said, pointing to when crypto was excited for Gary Gensler to take over as SEC chair before proving strict on crypto regulation.

「我們對哈里斯政府或川普政府會做什麼有預感，但我們知道這些承諾並不總是能兌現，而且可能會產生嚴酷的結果，」霍根說，他指的是加密貨幣對加里·詹斯勒(Gary Gensler) 感到興奮的時候在證明對加密貨幣監管嚴格之前接任 SEC 主席。

Hougan said, though, that he thinks bitcoin appears to be in the clear with regulators after the SEC approved the spot ETFs.

不過，Hougan 表示，他認為在 SEC 批准現貨 ETF 後，監管機構似乎已經清楚了比特幣的情況。

The presidential election will likely determine bitcoin's path

總統選舉可能會決定比特幣的走向

The US presidential election also remains top of mind for crypto investors.

美國總統大選仍然是加密貨幣投資者最關心的問題。

While both Trump and Harris are seen as pro-crypto, it's been Trump who has embraced the market publicly in recent months, speaking at events and even launching his own NFTs. This has led the market to believe he'd be the one to truly allow it to flourish and bitcoin has rallied as Trump's odds of winning the election have risen.

儘管川普和哈里斯都被視為支持加密貨幣，但近幾個月來，川普公開擁抱市場，在活動中發表講話，甚至推出了自己的 NFT。這讓市場相信他將是真正讓比特幣蓬勃發展的人，隨著川普贏得選舉的可能性上升，比特幣也隨之上漲。

A Trump win could shoot bitcoin to $125,000 by the end of the year, a jump of over 80% from Friday's prices, according to Standard Charter analyst Geoff Kendrick.

渣打銀行 (Standard Charter) 分析師 Geoff Kendrick 表示，如果川普獲勝，比特幣價格可能會在年底前飆升至 125,000 美元，較上週五的價格上漲 80% 以上。

But even if odds shift in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris, bitcoin will likely still rally, Hougan said.

但胡根表示，即使賠率轉向副總統卡馬拉哈里斯，比特幣可能仍會上漲。

He says a Trump win would be an accelerant for crypto in the few months after the election, but bitcoin will likely do well in the long term regardless, as Harris appears to be friendlier to crypto than President Joe Biden.

他表示，川普的勝利將在大選後的幾個月內促進加密貨幣的發展，但無論如何，從長遠來看，比特幣可能會表現良好，因為哈里斯似乎比喬·拜登總統對加密貨幣更友善。

"Two years ago, crypto was talking about Sam Bankman Fried and the biggest financial crime of all time, and crypto was completely toxic. Today, both presidential campaigns are posturing in positive ways toward the crypto industry," Hougan said.

「兩年前，加密貨幣正在談論薩姆·班克曼·弗里德（Sam Bankman Fried）和有史以來最大的金融犯罪，而加密貨幣是完全有毒的。今天，兩次總統競選都以積極的方式對待加密貨幣行業，」Hougan 說。

After the election, bitcoin's path looks less clear

大選後，比特幣的道路看起來不太明朗

As markets fixate on the result of the November contest, there's no clear catalyst for further gains after that.

由於市場關注 11 月比賽的結果，因此此後沒有進一步上漲的明顯催化劑。

"Sharks need to swim to survive. If they stop they will die," Hougan said, adding, "Bitcoin is sort of like that. It is, in the end, a narrative- and growth-focused entity."

“鯊魚需要游泳才能生存。如果它們停下來就會死，”霍根說，並補充道，“比特幣有點像這樣。歸根結底，它是一個以敘事和增長為中心的實體。”

He says, though, that the narrative could point toward greater institutional adoption, or toward more potentially real-world applications for crypto.

不過，他表示，這種敘述可能會指向更大的機構採用，或是指向更多潛在的現實世界的加密應用。

Spot ETFs will gain momentum, boosting bitcoin

現貨ETF將獲得動力，提振比特幣

Among the bullish drivers, the spot ETFs that drove a rally earlier this year will likely still have a positive impact.

在看漲的推動因素中，今年稍早推動上漲的現貨 ETF 可能仍會產生正面影響。

"I think Bitcoin ETF flows will accelerate in Q4 and then accelerate again in 2025. And I don't think that's priced into the market or expected," Hougan said.

「我認為比特幣 ETF 流量將在第四季度加速，然後在 2025 年再次加速。我認為這並未反映在市場中或預期中，」Hougan 表示。

Baehr said the rising prominence of bitcoin ETFs and their backing from firms like BlackRock will help the crypto push further into the mainstream.

Baehr 表示，比特幣 ETF 的日益突出以及貝萊德等公司的支持將有助於加密貨幣進一步進入主流。

"I think that the asset class now is able to participate in more serious conversations, and so the price of bitcoin is just going to enjoy that universal expansion and that network enrichment," Baehr said.

貝爾表示：“我認為該資產類別現在能夠參與更嚴肅的對話，因此比特幣的價格將享受普遍擴張和網路豐富。”