比特币战略暂停：减半准备中获利回吐和做空

据 CryptoQuant 称，比特币最近跌至 61,000 美元是由于市场参与者因预期 4 月 20 日减半而减少了敞口。交易员平掉多头头寸，导致永续期货市场上卖单占据主导地位，买入卖出比率跌至1以下就证明了这一点。短期持有者出售其资产，以从最近上涨至 71,000 美元的高额利润中获利。负资金利率表明交易者愿意维持空头头寸，而鲸鱼、永久持有者和美国ETF的需求增长已经放缓。尽管存在这些因素，比特币仍处于牛市阶段，最近的抛售是未实现利润的重置，使比特币更接近其已实现价格 58,000 美元。

Bitcoin's Market Correction: A Strategic Retreat Amidst Halving Preparations

比特币市场回调：减半准备中的战略撤退

Bitcoin's recent descent to the $61,000 mark over the weekend mirrored a prudent strategy among market participants seeking to reduce their exposure to the digital asset ahead of the highly anticipated halving event scheduled for April 20th. According to the latest CryptoQuant weekly report, this calculated move was driven by a combination of profit-taking and a shift in sentiment towards short-selling.

比特币最近在周末跌至 61,000 美元大关，反映出市场参与者采取谨慎策略，寻求在 4 月 20 日备受期待的减半事件之前减少对数字资产的敞口。根据最新的 CryptoQuant 每周报告，这一精心策划的举动是由获利回吐和卖空情绪转变共同推动的。

Profit-Taking and Shift in Sentiment

获利了结和情绪转变

Analysts observed a notable surge in traders closing their long positions to secure profits, leading to a dominance of sell orders in the perpetual futures markets. This trend is reflected in the Buy Sell Ratio, which has dipped below one, signaling a shift away from bullish positions. When buy orders outnumber sell orders, the ratio typically rises above one.

分析师观察到，为确保利润而平掉多头头寸的交易员显着增加，导致永续期货市场上卖单占据主导地位。这一趋势反映在买入卖出比率中，该比率已降至 1 以下，表明多头头寸有所转变。当买入订单数量超过卖出订单数量时，该比率通常会升至 1 以上。

Reduced Exposure and Margin Compression

风险减少和利润压缩

Alongside the profit-taking, traders also decreased their overall exposure to Bitcoin, resulting in a decline in total open interest from 250,000 BTC to approximately 220,000 BTC. Short-term holders, those holding BTC for less than six months, seized the opportunity to unload their assets and secure substantial profit margins following the asset's recent surge to $71,000.

除了获利了结之外，交易者还减少了对比特币的总体敞口，导致未平仓合约总量从 250,000 BTC 下降至约 220,000 BTC。在比特币近期飙升至 71,000 美元后，短期持有者（即持有 BTC 时间不足六个月的人）抓住机会抛售资产并获得可观的利润率。

Negative funding rates, an indicator of traders' willingness to pay for opening and maintaining short positions, have also emerged for the first time since January 2024. This shift in sentiment suggests that traders are anticipating further downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.

自 2024 年 1 月以来，负资金利率也首次出现，负资金利率是交易者为开立和维持空头头寸支付意愿的指标。这种情绪转变表明交易者预计比特币价格将面临进一步下行压力。

Weakening Demand Growth

需求增长疲软

Demand growth from whales, or holders with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, has also decelerated after a rapid pace observed last month. The month-on-month increase in the total balance of these large entities has dropped to 8% from the 11% recorded in mid-March.

鲸鱼（即持有 1,000 至 10,000 BTC 的持有者）的需求增长在上个月出现快速增长后也有所放缓。这些大型实体总余额环比增幅已从3月中旬的11%降至8%。

Similarly, demand growth from permanent BTC holders, such as accumulation addresses, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based in the United States has weakened. Accumulation addresses have seen monthly inflows decline to 161,000 BTC from the previous 204,000 BTC. ETFs have witnessed net outflows for three consecutive trading days, with outflows from Grayscale's GBTC surpassing the cumulative inflows of the funds.

同样，来自美国的累积地址和交易所交易基金（ETF）等永久比特币持有者的需求增长也有所减弱。累积地址的每月流入量从之前的 204,000 BTC 下降至 161,000 BTC。 ETF已连续三个交易日出现净流出，其中灰度GBTC的流出量超过了基金累计流入量。

Bullish Market Intact Despite Correction

尽管出现调整，看涨市场仍保持不变

Despite the recent plunge in demand growth and open interest, analysts maintain that Bitcoin remains firmly within the bull market phase. CryptoQuant experts emphasize that the recent sell-off served as a necessary reset, reducing traders' unrealized profits to zero, an action often interpreted as a bottom signal in bull cycles. Moreover, Bitcoin's value has moved closer to the traders' realized price of $58,000, which has provided support during this period.

尽管最近需求增长和未平仓合约大幅下降，但分析师仍认为比特币仍处于牛市阶段。 CryptoQuant 专家强调，最近的抛售是必要的重置，将交易者的未实现利润降至零，这一行为通常被解读为牛市周期的底部信号。此外，比特币的价值已接近交易者的实际价格 58,000 美元，这在此期间提供了支撑。

"From a long-term cyclical perspective, Bitcoin is still in a bull market phase," said CryptoQuant. "CryptoQuant's Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator remains in the BULL phase. However, it signaled that the bull market had entered an overheated phase when prices increased above $70,000."

CryptoQuant 表示：“从长期周期性角度来看，比特币仍处于牛市阶段。” “CryptoQuant 的牛熊市场周期指标仍处于牛市阶段。然而，当价格升至 70,000 美元以上时，它表明牛市已进入过热阶段。”

Short-Term Sentiment vs. Long-Term Outlook

短期情绪与长期展望

The current market sentiment may suggest a short-term correction, but the overall long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish. The upcoming halving event, which will reduce the supply of new Bitcoin by 50%, is expected to create a surge in demand and drive prices higher.

目前的市场情绪可能会出现短期调整，但比特币的整体长期前景仍然看涨。即将到来的减半事件将使新比特币的供应量减少 50%，预计将导致需求激增并推高价格。

Conclusion

结论

Bitcoin's recent market correction is a strategic move by traders seeking to manage their risk and position themselves for potential volatility ahead of the halving event. While short-term sentiment may indicate a period of consolidation, the long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin remains intact. The halving event, coupled with the asset's inherent fundamentals and increasing adoption, will likely continue to fuel its upward trajectory.

比特币最近的市场调整是交易者在减半事件之前寻求管理风险并为潜在波动做好准备的战略举措。虽然短期情绪可能预示着一段时期的盘整，但比特币的长期看涨前景仍然完好无损。减半事件，加上该资产的固有基本面和不断增加的采用率，可能会继续推动其上升轨迹。