杰夫·帕克（Jeff Park）的比特币战略储备概率估计引发社区争论

Bitwise 资产管理公司 Alpha 策略主管 Jeff Park 今天早些时候（2024 年 12 月 26 日）对 X 发表了关于 2025 年建立联邦比特币战略储备的可能性的评论，引发了争论。

Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Asset Management, Jeff Park, sparked a lively discussion earlier today (December 26, 2024) with his statement on CNBC about the likelihood of a federal Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in 2025.

今天早些时候（2024 年 12 月 26 日），Bitwise 资产管理公司 Alpha 策略主管 Jeff Park 在 CNBC 上发表了关于 2025 年建立联邦比特币战略储备的可能性的声明，引发了热烈讨论。

Park commented on the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $1 million or more in 2025, a topic of much debate in the crypto community. He tied the likelihood of such an occurrence to the establishment of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, stating that if such a reserve is not created, Bitcoin is unlikely to reach $1 million in 2025. However, he assessed the probability of a strategic reserve being set up at less than 10%.

Park 评论了比特币在 2025 年达到 100 万美元或更多的可能性，这是加密社区备受争议的话题。他将这种情况发生的可能性与建立比特币战略储备联系在一起，并表示如果不建立这样的储备，比特币在 2025 年不太可能达到 100 万美元。不过，他评估了建立战略储备的可能性低于 10%。

This statement drew a range of responses from the Bitcoin community, reflecting diverse viewpoints on the feasibility and implications of such a move. Let’s break down his statement, the most common reactions, and delve deeper into the context.

这一声明引起了比特币社区的一系列回应，反映了对这一举措的可行性和影响的不同观点。让我们分解一下他的陈述、最常见的反应，并更深入地研究背景。

The idea of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve aligns with growing narratives about governments embracing Bitcoin as a strategic asset, akin to gold reserves. However, Park’s skepticism highlights practical hurdles. Establishing a strategic reserve would require Congressional approval, which might be challenging to obtain given other legislative priorities and the capital required to make such a reserve impactful.

比特币战略储备的想法与越来越多的政府将比特币视为战略资产（类似于黄金储备）的说法是一致的。然而，帕克的怀疑凸显了实际障碍。建立战略储备需要国会的批准，考虑到其他立法优先事项以及使此类储备产生影响所需的资本，获得国会的批准可能具有挑战性。

One perspective highlighted proposed legislation for a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve that could mandate the acquisition of 200,000 Bitcoin in 2025. At current prices, this would entail approximately $20 billion in capital. The argument suggests that such an inflow, while substantial, could spur additional activity, with public companies and nations adopting Bitcoin as part of their own strategies. This momentum might make Park’s valuation logic plausible, even if it currently seems ambitious.

一种观点强调了比特币战略储备的拟议立法，该立法可能要求在 2025 年收购 200,000 比特币。以目前的价格计算，这将需要大约 200 亿美元的资本。该论点表明，这种资金流入虽然规模巨大，但可能会刺激更多的活动，因为上市公司和国家会采用比特币作为其自身战略的一部分。这种势头可能会让帕克的估值逻辑变得合理，尽管目前看来雄心勃勃。

Others questioned the necessity of Congressional approval for such a reserve, proposing that executive authority could be used instead. For instance, they speculated that Trump might direct the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to acquire Bitcoin. Historically used for foreign currency interventions, the ESF could, in theory, be repurposed for Bitcoin, creating a pathway to a strategic reserve without direct legislative backing.

其他人则质疑国会批准此类储备金的必要性，并建议可以使用行政权力。例如，他们猜测特朗普可能会指示外汇稳定基金（ESF）收购比特币。 ESF 历史上用于外汇干预，理论上可以重新用于比特币，从而在没有直接立法支持的情况下开辟一条通往战略储备的途径。

Optimists pointed to Trump’s vocal support for Bitcoin, as evidenced during the Bitcoin 2024 conference. They argued that his administration’s pro-Bitcoin rhetoric, coupled with the presence of crypto-friendly individuals in his circle, increases the likelihood of bold moves like a Strategic Reserve. This group placed the probability closer to 70%, suggesting Park’s estimate was overly conservative.

乐观主义者指出特朗普对比特币的直言不讳的支持，这一点在比特币 2024 会议上得到了证明。他们认为，他的政府支持比特币的言论，加上他的圈子中存在对加密货币友好的个人，增加了采取战略储备等大胆举措的可能性。该小组认为概率接近 70%，这表明 Park 的估计过于保守。

However, some agreed with Park, cautioning against speculation that assumes a Strategic Reserve is inevitable. They argued that overconfidence in this narrative could lead to significant disappointment if such plans fail to materialize. This camp emphasized that while a Strategic Reserve is an exciting concept, it remains highly speculative.

然而，一些人同意帕克的观点，并警告不要猜测战略储备是不可避免的。他们认为，如果此类计划未能实现，对这一叙述的过度自信可能会导致极大的失望。该阵营强调，虽然战略储备是一个令人兴奋的概念，但它仍然具有高度的投机性。

To fully understand the debate, it’s essential to revisit the key points Trump made during his speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference on July 27. Trump celebrated Bitcoin as an extraordinary technological innovation and a testament to human cooperation. He predicted that Bitcoin would surpass gold in market capitalization and envisioned the United States as the global leader in Bitcoin mining. For this purpose, he proposed that all Bitcoin mining should occur domestically, establishing the U.S. as a Bitcoin superpower.

为了充分理解这场辩论，有必要回顾一下特朗普在 7 月 27 日比特币 2024 会议上发表演讲时提出的要点。特朗普称赞比特币是一项非凡的技术创新，也是人类合作的证明。他预测比特币的市值将超过黄金，并设想美国成为比特币挖矿的全球领导者。为此，他建议所有比特币开采都应在国内进行，从而将美国打造为比特币超级大国。

Trump also emphasized Bitcoin’s role as a decentralized and self-custodial asset, pledging to protect the right to self-custody cryptoassets and promising regulatory reforms to foster the growth of the crypto industry. He promised to fire the sitting SEC Chair, Gary Gensler, on his first day in office and replace him with a pro-crypto regulator. Furthermore, he committed to establishing a regulatory framework for dollar-backed stablecoins to enhance the strength of the U.S. dollar.

特朗普还强调了比特币作为去中心化和自我托管资产的作用，承诺保护自我托管加密资产的权利，并承诺进行监管改革以促进加密行业的增长。他承诺在上任第一天解雇现任 SEC 主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler)，并以支持加密货币的监管机构取代他。此外，他致力于建立美元支持的稳定币的监管框架，以增强美元的强势。

Arguing that Bitcoin itself does not pose a threat to the dollar, Trump placed the blame on government policies for any perceived risks to the dollar’s stability. He highlighted that the U.S. government holds a significant amount of Bitcoin, promising to retain and expand these reserves. Trump’s bold declarations have fueled speculation about transformative cryptocurrency policies in his potential second term.

特朗普认为比特币本身并不对美元构成威胁，他将美元稳定面临的任何风险归咎于政府政策。他强调，美国政府持有大量比特币，并承诺保留并扩大这些储备。特朗普的大胆声明引发了人们对其潜在第二任期内变革性加密货币政策的猜测。