比特币能否取代黄金成为国家储备资产？探索辛西娅·卢米斯的大胆提议

美国参议员辛西娅·鲁米斯（Cynthia Lummis）通常被称为“加密货币女王”，长期以来一直是比特币及其彻底改变金融格局的潜力的倡导者

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis, known as the “Crypto Queen,” has proposed an ambitious plan for the country: to create a Bitcoin reserve. This move, according to Lummis, would bolster America's economic stability and solidify its standing as a global leader in the crypto space. But is Bitcoin a stable enough asset for such a crucial role? Let's delve into her proposal and the challenges it might face.

被称为“加密女王”的美国参议员辛西娅·卢米斯(Cynthia Lummis)为该国提出了一项雄心勃勃的计划：建立比特币储备。 Lummis 表示，此举将增强美国的经济稳定性，并巩固其作为加密货币领域全球领导者的地位。但比特币是否是一种足够稳定的资产来发挥如此重要的作用？让我们深入研究她的提议及其可能面临的挑战。

Gold has been the U.S.'s currency value backer for decades, with over 8,000 tons in reserve. This precious metal has long been considered a reliable store of value due to its ability to maintain stable prices over time. Being the world's largest gold holder, the U.S. has used its gold reserves to hedge against inflation and safeguard the dollar's value.

几十年来，黄金一直是美国货币价值的支持者，储备量超过 8,000 吨。这种贵金属长期以来一直被认为是可靠的价值储存手段，因为它能够随着时间的推移保持稳定的价格。作为全球最大的黄金持有国，美国利用其黄金储备来对冲通货膨胀并维护美元的价值。

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a completely different story. The cryptocurrency is notorious for its extreme price volatility. In just a day, the price of Bitcoin can either surge or plummet, making it far less predictable than gold. Senator Lummis's proposal for a $200 billion Bitcoin reserve would be just a fraction of the U.S.'s gold reserves, but it begs the question: can Bitcoin ever offer the same reliability as gold?

另一方面，比特币则是一个完全不同的故事。这种加密货币因其极端的价格波动而臭名昭著。在短短一天之内，比特币的价格可能会飙升或暴跌，这使其远不如黄金那么可预测。 Lummis 参议员提出的 2000 亿美元比特币储备的提议只是美国黄金储备的一小部分，但它引出了一个问题：比特币能否提供与黄金相同的可靠性？

Bitcoin's volatility is a major hurdle in its potential to serve as a stable reserve asset. While it has garnered attention for its substantial price increases over the years, it has also seen sharp drops. For instance, during previous bear markets, Bitcoin's price has dropped by over 50% in a matter of months. Given this unpredictability, some critics argue that relying on Bitcoin to back the dollar could create more instability rather than fostering economic security.

比特币的波动性是其作为稳定储备资产潜力的主要障碍。尽管多年来其价格大幅上涨而受到关注，但其价格也出现了大幅下跌。例如，在之前的熊市中，比特币的价格在几个月内下跌了 50% 以上。鉴于这种不可预测性，一些批评者认为，依靠比特币支持美元可能会造成更多的不稳定，而不是促进经济安全。

If the U.S. were to build a Bitcoin reserve, the process could begin with an executive order. Under the leadership of President Trump and Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, the government could bypass some of the traditional approval processes and begin purchasing Bitcoin directly. This would be similar to how the U.S. tapped into its emergency oil reserves in 2022 to alleviate rising gas prices. Treating Bitcoin as a “strategic asset” would allow the government to buy it in large quantities, potentially securing a reserve without the need for immediate congressional approval.

如果美国要建立比特币储备，这一过程可以从行政命令开始。在特朗普总统和俄亥俄州参议员 JD Vance 的领导下，政府可以绕过一些传统的审批流程，开始直接购买比特币。这类似于美国在 2022 年动用紧急石油储备来缓解天然气价格上涨的情况。将比特币视为“战略资产”将允许政府大量购买比特币，从而有可能在无需立即获得国会批准的情况下获得储备。

However, for such a reserve plan to become a permanent part of U.S. economic policy, Congress would likely need to step in. Lawmakers would have to pass legislation to fund Bitcoin purchases and secure long-term allocations. This process could take time, and convincing lawmakers—especially those who are skeptical about cryptocurrency—would likely be a difficult task. Some members of Congress may view Bitcoin as too risky or speculative, while others might worry about its environmental impact or its potential to be used for illicit activities.

然而，要使这样的储备计划成为美国经济政策的永久组成部分，国会可能需要介入。立法者必须通过立法来为比特币购买提供资金并确保长期分配。这个过程可能需要时间，并且说服立法者——尤其是那些对加密货币持怀疑态度的人——可能是一项艰巨的任务。一些国会议员可能认为比特币风险太大或投机性太强，而另一些议员可能担心其对环境的影响或被用于非法活动的可能性。

It's also important to note that the U.S. government already holds a significant amount of Bitcoin. As of now, the government owns 208,109 BTC, which is worth approximately $15.66 billion. These holdings primarily come from law enforcement seizures, with the government also holding other major cryptocurrencies seized from criminal cases. These assets are currently managed by the U.S. Marshals Service, but they are not part of a formal Bitcoin reserve plan.

还需要注意的是，美国政府已经持有大量比特币。截至目前，政府拥有 208,109 BTC，价值约 156.6 亿美元。这些资产主要来自执法部门查获的资产，政府还持有从刑事案件中查获的其他主要加密货币。这些资产目前由美国法警局管理，但它们不属于正式的比特币储备计划的一部分。

Lummis's idea of a Bitcoin reserve is bold, but it's not without significant challenges. Bitcoin still carries a reputation for being highly volatile and speculative. Many critics argue that it doesn't yet have the maturity or stability required for use as a reserve asset. With inflation and national debt still major concerns in the U.S., there's a risk that adopting Bitcoin in such a way could expose the economy to unpredictable fluctuations.

鲁米斯关于比特币储备的想法很大胆，但也并非没有重大挑战。比特币仍然享有高度波动性和投机性的声誉。许多批评者认为，它还不具备用作储备资产所需的成熟度或稳定性。由于通货膨胀和国债仍然是美国的主要担忧，因此以这种方式采用比特币可能会使经济面临不可预测的波动。

Further complicating the matter is the fact that Bitcoin's market is still relatively small compared to traditional assets like gold or U.S. Treasury bonds. In 2024, the total market cap of Bitcoin is estimated to be around $600 billion, compared to the over $11 trillion market cap of gold. Buying up Bitcoin at the scale Lummis suggests would put a significant strain on the market, potentially driving prices even higher and increasing volatility. The supply of Bitcoin is also limited to 21 million coins, so large-scale government purchases could exacerbate scarcity, further increasing volatility.

使问题更加复杂的是，与黄金或美国国债等传统资产相比，比特币的市场仍然相对较小。到 2024 年，比特币的总市值预计将达到 6000 亿美元左右，而黄金的总市值将超过 11 万亿美元。以 Lummis 暗示的规模购买比特币会给市场带来巨大压力，可能会推高价格并加剧波动性。比特币的供应量也仅限于 2100 万枚，因此政府大规模购买可能会加剧稀缺性，进一步增加波动性。

Additionally, Bitcoin's use as a store of value is still up for debate. While many see Bitcoin as “digital gold,” others view it as a speculative investment rather than a reliable asset. Critics argue that the cryptocurrency is too new and untested to replace gold as a safe-haven asset, and its adoption as a reserve currency could lead to unforeseen economic consequences.

此外，比特币作为价值储存手段的用途仍然存在争议。虽然许多人将比特币视为“数字黄金”，但其他人则将其视为投机投资而不是可靠的资产。批评者认为，加密货币太新且未经测试，无法取代黄金作为避险资产，而采用其作为储备货币可能会导致不可预见的经济后果。

While Lummis's Bitcoin reserve proposal has generated significant attention, it is still in its early stages. The idea is certainly provocative, but it's unclear whether it will gain enough traction within Congress to move forward. Given the volatility of Bitcoin and its controversial status as a financial asset, the

尽管鲁米斯的比特币储备提案引起了广泛关注，但仍处于早期阶段。这个想法无疑具有挑衅性，但尚不清楚它是否会在国会中获得足够的支持来推进。鉴于比特币的波动性及其作为金融资产的争议地位，