比特币 (BTC) 价格接近关键阻力位，到 2024 年末可能反弹至 15 万美元

比特币的价格正处于牛市周期的关键阶段。分析师 Peter Brandt 表示，随着加密货币达到顶峰，要关注关键水平

Bitcoin price is currently experiencing a critical phase in its bull market cycle, with several key levels to watch as the cryptocurrency surges toward its peak, which is expected to be between $130,000 and $150,000 by late 2024, according to veteran technical analyst Peter Brandt.

资深技术分析师 Peter Brandt 表示，比特币价格目前正经历牛市周期的关键阶段，随着加密货币飙升至峰值，预计到 2024 年底，峰值将达到 13 万至 15 万美元，有几个关键水平值得关注。

Bitcoin’s price has been moving in cycles that are tied to its halving events, which reduce the mining rewards and often lead to supply scarcity. Current price charts show Bitcoin is nearing a resistance point, with technical indicators that suggest the bullish momentum will continue.

比特币的价格一直在与其减半事件相关的周期中波动，这减少了挖矿奖励并常常导致供应稀缺。当前的价格图表显示比特币正接近阻力点，技术指标表明看涨势头将持续。

Bitcoin $BTC is now in the sweet spot of the bull market halving cycle that should top in the $130k to $150K range next Aug/Sep. I measure cycles differently than most. For background see link here: https://t.co/XWxS0kT4pO pic.twitter.com/3oDYzIQf69

比特币 $BTC 目前正处于牛市减半周期的最佳点，预计明年 8 月/9 月将达到 13 万至 15 万美元的峰值。我测量周期的方式与大多数人不同。有关背景信息，请参阅此处的链接：https://t.co/XWxS0kT4pO pic.twitter.com/3oDYzIQf69

Resistance Levels: Bitcoin Nears $75,808 Barrier

阻力位：比特币接近 75,808 美元障碍

The immediate challenge for Bitcoin price is a resistance level around $75,808, which has historically capped further price gains. At the moment, the live Bitcoin price is around $75,756, and a sustained move past this resistance could open the path toward new highs.

比特币价格面临的直接挑战是 75,808 美元附近的阻力位，该水平历来限制了价格的进一步上涨。目前，比特币的实时价格约为 75,756 美元，持续突破这一阻力位可能会打开通往新高的道路。

Resistance levels like this one often require significant volume to overcome. If we do see a strong breakout here, it could signal the continuation of Bitcoin’s bullish trend, especially if other technical indicators remain positive.

像这样的阻力位通常需要大量交易量才能克服。如果我们确实看到这里出现强劲突破，则可能预示着比特币看涨趋势的延续，特别是如果其他技术指标仍然积极的话。

Read also: Bitcoin’s $76K Surge Highlights the “Trump Trade” Effect

另请阅读：比特币 7.6 万美元的飙升凸显了“特朗普贸易”效应

On the downside, Bitcoin has established strong support around the $35,000 range. This level has been crucial in previous price consolidations and served as a foundation for the current upward movement.

不利的一面是，比特币在 35,000 美元范围内建立了强有力的支撑。这一水平在之前的价格盘整中至关重要，也是当前上涨的基础。

If Bitcoin’s price does correct, we can likely expect to see $35,000 serving as a support level, providing a safety net for investors. This support zone may also help Bitcoin’s price if the broader market pulls back.

如果比特币的价格确实正确，我们可能会看到 35,000 美元作为支撑位，为投资者提供安全网。如果大盘回落，这个支撑区域也可能有助于比特币的价格。

Halving and Cyclical Patterns

减半和周期性模式

Bitcoin’s next halving, which is scheduled to take place in 2024, is a significant event that could influence price trends. Over the years, halving events have led to a reduction in supply, limiting the number of new Bitcoins that enter circulation.

比特币的下一次减半预计将于 2024 年发生，这是可能影响价格趋势的重大事件。多年来，减半事件导致供应减少，限制了进入流通的新比特币数量。

In the past, this scarcity has sparked rallies, and the current cycle shows a similar upward momentum leading into the halving period.

过去，这种稀缺性引发了反弹，当前周期也显示出类似的上涨势头，进入减半期。

Additionally, Brandt’s analysis of Bitcoin’s price chart reveals a pattern of roughly 74 bars (518 days). According to him, past cycles have shown that these intervals often precede bullish breakouts, suggesting the possibility of a price surge in the upcoming months.

此外，Brandt 对比特币价格图表的分析揭示了大约 74 个柱（518 天）的模式。他表示，过去的周期表明，这些区间通常先于看涨突破，这表明未来几个月价格可能会飙升。

Technical Indicators Signal Bullish Momentum

技术指标显示看涨势头

At press time, the Bitcoin price is trading at $75,756.04, indicating a 1.91% increase over the last 24 hours, with trading volume exceeding $64 billion. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 70.63, suggesting overbought conditions in the short term, which may signal a brief pullback before further gains.

截至发稿，比特币价格报75,756.04美元，较过去24小时上涨1.91%，交易量超过640亿美元。 4小时相对强弱指数（RSI）目前位于70.63，表明短期处于超买状态，这可能预示着在进一步上涨之前会出现短暂回调。

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a bullish crossover, with the MACD line trading above the signal line, pointing to sustained upward momentum.

与此同时，平滑异同移动平均线（MACD）指标显示看涨交叉，MACD线交投于信号线上方，表明上涨势头持续。

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