比特幣能否取代黃金成為國家儲備資產？探索辛西亞·盧米斯的大膽提議

美國參議員辛西婭·魯米斯（Cynthia Lummis）通常被稱為“加密貨幣女王”，長期以來一直是比特幣及其徹底改變金融格局的潛力的倡導者

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis, known as the “Crypto Queen,” has proposed an ambitious plan for the country: to create a Bitcoin reserve. This move, according to Lummis, would bolster America's economic stability and solidify its standing as a global leader in the crypto space. But is Bitcoin a stable enough asset for such a crucial role? Let's delve into her proposal and the challenges it might face.

被稱為「加密女王」的美國參議員辛西婭·盧米斯(Cynthia Lummis)為該國提出了一項雄心勃勃的計劃：建立比特幣儲備。 Lummis 表示，此舉將增強美國的經濟穩定性，並鞏固其作為加密貨幣領域全球領導者的地位。但比特幣是否是一種足夠穩定的資產來發揮如此重要的作用？讓我們深入研究她的提議及其可能面臨的挑戰。

Gold has been the U.S.'s currency value backer for decades, with over 8,000 tons in reserve. This precious metal has long been considered a reliable store of value due to its ability to maintain stable prices over time. Being the world's largest gold holder, the U.S. has used its gold reserves to hedge against inflation and safeguard the dollar's value.

幾十年來，黃金一直是美國貨幣價值的支持者，儲備量超過 8,000 噸。這種貴金屬長期以來一直被認為是可靠的價值儲存手段，因為它能夠隨著時間的推移保持穩定的價格。作為全球最大的黃金持有國，美國利用其黃金儲備來對沖通貨膨脹並維護美元的價值。

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a completely different story. The cryptocurrency is notorious for its extreme price volatility. In just a day, the price of Bitcoin can either surge or plummet, making it far less predictable than gold. Senator Lummis's proposal for a $200 billion Bitcoin reserve would be just a fraction of the U.S.'s gold reserves, but it begs the question: can Bitcoin ever offer the same reliability as gold?

另一方面，比特幣則是一個完全不同的故事。這種加密貨幣因其極端的價格波動而臭名昭著。在短短一天之內，比特幣的價格可能會飆升或暴跌，這使其遠不如黃金那麼可預測。 Lummis 參議員提出的 2000 億美元比特幣儲備的提議只是美國黃金儲備的一小部分，但它引出了一個問題：比特幣能否提供與黃金相同的可靠性？

Bitcoin's volatility is a major hurdle in its potential to serve as a stable reserve asset. While it has garnered attention for its substantial price increases over the years, it has also seen sharp drops. For instance, during previous bear markets, Bitcoin's price has dropped by over 50% in a matter of months. Given this unpredictability, some critics argue that relying on Bitcoin to back the dollar could create more instability rather than fostering economic security.

比特幣的波動性是其作為穩定儲備資產潛力的主要障礙。儘管多年來其價格大幅上漲而受到關注，但其價格也出現了大幅下跌。例如，在先前的熊市中，比特幣的價格在幾個月內下跌了 50% 以上。鑑於這種不可預測性，一些批評者認為，依賴比特幣支持美元可能會造成更多的不穩定，而不是促進經濟安全。

If the U.S. were to build a Bitcoin reserve, the process could begin with an executive order. Under the leadership of President Trump and Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, the government could bypass some of the traditional approval processes and begin purchasing Bitcoin directly. This would be similar to how the U.S. tapped into its emergency oil reserves in 2022 to alleviate rising gas prices. Treating Bitcoin as a “strategic asset” would allow the government to buy it in large quantities, potentially securing a reserve without the need for immediate congressional approval.

如果美國要建立比特幣儲備，這個過程可以從行政命令開始。在川普總統和俄亥俄州參議員 JD Vance 的領導下，政府可以繞過一些傳統的審批流程，開始直接購買比特幣。這類似於美國在 2022 年動用緊急石油儲備來緩解天然氣價格上漲的情況。將比特幣視為「戰略資產」將允許政府大量購買比特幣，從而有可能在無需立即獲得國會批准的情況下獲得儲備。

However, for such a reserve plan to become a permanent part of U.S. economic policy, Congress would likely need to step in. Lawmakers would have to pass legislation to fund Bitcoin purchases and secure long-term allocations. This process could take time, and convincing lawmakers—especially those who are skeptical about cryptocurrency—would likely be a difficult task. Some members of Congress may view Bitcoin as too risky or speculative, while others might worry about its environmental impact or its potential to be used for illicit activities.

然而，要使這樣的儲備計劃成為美國經濟政策的永久組成部分，國會可能需要介入。這個過程可能需要時間，說服立法者——尤其是那些對加密貨幣持懷疑態度的人——可能是一項艱鉅的任務。一些國會議員可能認為比特幣風險太大或投機性太強，而另一些議員可能擔心其對環境的影響或被用於非法活動的可能性。

It's also important to note that the U.S. government already holds a significant amount of Bitcoin. As of now, the government owns 208,109 BTC, which is worth approximately $15.66 billion. These holdings primarily come from law enforcement seizures, with the government also holding other major cryptocurrencies seized from criminal cases. These assets are currently managed by the U.S. Marshals Service, but they are not part of a formal Bitcoin reserve plan.

還要注意的是，美國政府已經持有大量比特幣。截至目前，政府擁有 208,109 BTC，價值約 156.6 億美元。這些資產主要來自執法部門查獲的資產，政府也持有從刑事案件中查獲的其他主要加密貨幣。這些資產目前由美國法警局管理，但它們不屬於正式的比特幣儲備計畫的一部分。

Lummis's idea of a Bitcoin reserve is bold, but it's not without significant challenges. Bitcoin still carries a reputation for being highly volatile and speculative. Many critics argue that it doesn't yet have the maturity or stability required for use as a reserve asset. With inflation and national debt still major concerns in the U.S., there's a risk that adopting Bitcoin in such a way could expose the economy to unpredictable fluctuations.

魯米斯關於比特幣儲備的想法很大膽，但並非沒有重大挑戰。比特幣仍然享有高度波動性和投機性的聲譽。許多批評者認為，它還不具備用作儲備資產所需的成熟度或穩定性。由於通貨膨脹和國債仍然是美國的主要擔憂，因此以這種方式採用比特幣可能會使經濟面臨不可預測的波動。

Further complicating the matter is the fact that Bitcoin's market is still relatively small compared to traditional assets like gold or U.S. Treasury bonds. In 2024, the total market cap of Bitcoin is estimated to be around $600 billion, compared to the over $11 trillion market cap of gold. Buying up Bitcoin at the scale Lummis suggests would put a significant strain on the market, potentially driving prices even higher and increasing volatility. The supply of Bitcoin is also limited to 21 million coins, so large-scale government purchases could exacerbate scarcity, further increasing volatility.

使問題更加複雜的是，與黃金或美國國債等傳統資產相比，比特幣的市場仍然相對較小。到 2024 年，比特幣的總市值預計將達到 6,000 億美元左右，而黃金的總市值將超過 11 兆美元。以 Lummis 暗示的規模購買比特幣會給市場帶來巨大壓力，可能會推高價格並加劇波動性。比特幣的供應量也僅限於 2,100 萬枚，因此政府大規模購買可能會加劇稀缺性，進一步增加波動性。

Additionally, Bitcoin's use as a store of value is still up for debate. While many see Bitcoin as “digital gold,” others view it as a speculative investment rather than a reliable asset. Critics argue that the cryptocurrency is too new and untested to replace gold as a safe-haven asset, and its adoption as a reserve currency could lead to unforeseen economic consequences.

此外，比特幣作為價值儲存手段的用途仍有爭議。雖然許多人將比特幣視為“數位黃金”，但其他人則將其視為投機投資而不是可靠的資產。批評者認為，加密貨幣太新且未經測試，無法取代黃金作為避險資產，而採用其作為儲備貨幣可能會導致不可預見的經濟後果。

While Lummis's Bitcoin reserve proposal has generated significant attention, it is still in its early stages. The idea is certainly provocative, but it's unclear whether it will gain enough traction within Congress to move forward. Given the volatility of Bitcoin and its controversial status as a financial asset, the

儘管魯米斯的比特幣儲備提案引起了廣泛關注，但仍處於早期階段。這個想法無疑具有挑釁性，但尚不清楚它是否會在國會中獲得足夠的支持來推進。鑑於比特幣的波動性及其作為金融資產的爭議地位，