摩根大通警告称，由于 ETF 需求减弱，比特币有望进一步下跌

Will Bitcoin Plunge Further Amid Waning ETF Demand?

由于 ETF 需求减弱，比特币会进一步暴跌吗？

JPMorgan strategists are casting a bearish eye on Bitcoin, predicting further declines as inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs dwindle. They contend that BTC is currently in "overbought" territory, setting the stage for a potential downturn.

摩根大通策略师对比特币持悲观态度，预计随着现货比特币 ETF 的资金流入减少，比特币将进一步下跌。他们认为，比特币目前处于“超买”区域，为潜在的低迷奠定了基础。

Outflows Surge, Challenging ETF Flow Narrative

资金流出激增，对 ETF 流量叙述提出挑战

Since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 20, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market have experienced a surge in volatility. After reaching a high of $70,000, BTC has retreated due to waning demand for Bitcoin ETFs. As of writing, BTC is trading at $65,891, down 2.25%.

自 3 月 20 日联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议以来，比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场经历了波动性激增。在达到 70,000 美元的高点后，由于比特币 ETF 的需求减弱，比特币已经回落。截至撰写本文时，BTC 交易价格为 65,891 美元，下跌 2.25%。

JPMorgan strategists, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, point to sustained open interest in CME Bitcoin futures and decreasing flows into ETFs as indicators of bearish sentiment. They note that inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have slowed markedly, with outflows dominating in the past week.

以 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 为首的摩根大通策略师指出，CME 比特币期货的持续未平仓合约和 ETF 资金流入的减少是看跌情绪的指标。他们指出，流入现货比特币 ETF 的资金明显放缓，过去一周资金流出占主导地位。

Halving Euphoria Wanes, Profit-Taking Intensifies

减半兴奋感减弱，获利回吐加剧

The upcoming Bitcoin halving event, which will reduce miner rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.25 BTC, has been eagerly anticipated by the market. However, JPMorgan strategists caution that the euphoria surrounding the event is likely to fade, leading to profit-taking and further declines.

即将到来的比特币减半事件，将使矿工奖励从 6.25 BTC 减少至 3.25 BTC，受到市场热切期待。然而，摩根大通策略师警告称，围绕该事件的兴奋情绪可能会消退，导致获利了结和进一步下跌。

Last month, JPMorgan predicted that Bitcoin would gradually decline towards $42,000 after April, as the excitement around the halving event subsides.

上个月，摩根大通预测，随着减半事件的兴奋消退，比特币将在 4 月份之后逐渐跌向 42,000 美元。

Spot ETF Netflows Slow, Signaling Shift in Sentiment

现货 ETF 资金流量缓慢，表明市场情绪发生转变

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has also observed a slowdown in Bitcoin spot ETF netflows, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment. Ju notes that if the price of Bitcoin approaches critical support levels, demand may rebound.

CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 还观察到比特币现货 ETF 净流量放缓，表明市场情绪可能发生转变。 Ju指出，如果比特币的价格接近关键支撑位，需求可能会反弹。

However, he also highlights that a significant number of new whales, primarily ETF buyers, have entered the market with an on-chain cost basis of $56,000. This suggests that these whales may be willing to hold their positions, even in the face of a downturn.

不过，他还强调，大量新鲸鱼（主要是 ETF 买家）已进入市场，链上成本为 56,000 美元。这表明，即使面对经济低迷，这些鲸鱼也可能愿意坚守自己的立场。

Historical Corrections Suggest "Max Pain" Level

历史修正表明“最大痛苦”水平

Ju's analysis of historical data indicates that corrections in bull markets typically involve a maximum drawdown of around 30%. In the current scenario, this would translate to a "max pain" level of $51,000 for Bitcoin.

Ju对历史数据的分析表明，牛市的调整通常涉及最大30%左右的回撤。在当前情况下，这将意味着比特币的“最大痛苦”水平为 51,000 美元。

Conclusion: Bearish Signals Dominate, But Upside Potential Remains

结论：看跌信号占主导地位，但上行潜力依然存在

JPMorgan strategists remain bearish on Bitcoin in the near term, citing waning ETF demand and overbought conditions. However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju suggests that demand may rebound if the price of Bitcoin approaches critical support levels. The presence of new whales with a higher cost basis may also provide some cushion against further declines.

摩根大通策略师短期内仍然看空比特币，理由是 ETF 需求减弱和超买状况。然而，CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 表示，如果比特币价格接近关键支撑位，需求可能会反弹。成本基础较高的新鲸鱼的出现也可能为进一步下降提供一定的缓冲。