摩根大通警告稱，由於 ETF 需求減弱，比特幣有望進一步下跌

Will Bitcoin Plunge Further Amid Waning ETF Demand?

由於 ETF 需求減弱，比特幣會進一步暴跌嗎？

JPMorgan strategists are casting a bearish eye on Bitcoin, predicting further declines as inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs dwindle. They contend that BTC is currently in "overbought" territory, setting the stage for a potential downturn.

摩根大通策略師對比特幣持悲觀態度，預計隨著現貨比特幣 ETF 的資金流入減少，比特幣將進一步下跌。他們認為，比特幣目前處於「超買」區域，為潛在的低迷奠定了基礎。

Outflows Surge, Challenging ETF Flow Narrative

資金流出激增，對 ETF 流量敘事提出挑戰

Since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 20, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market have experienced a surge in volatility. After reaching a high of $70,000, BTC has retreated due to waning demand for Bitcoin ETFs. As of writing, BTC is trading at $65,891, down 2.25%.

自 3 月 20 日聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 會議以來，比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場經歷了波動性激增。在達到 70,000 美元的高點後，由於比特幣 ETF 的需求減弱，比特幣已經回落。截至撰寫本文時，BTC 交易價格為 65,891 美元，下跌 2.25%。

JPMorgan strategists, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, point to sustained open interest in CME Bitcoin futures and decreasing flows into ETFs as indicators of bearish sentiment. They note that inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have slowed markedly, with outflows dominating in the past week.

以 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 為首的摩根大通策略師指出，CME 比特幣期貨的持續未平倉合約和 ETF 資金流入的減少是看跌情緒的指標。他們指出，流入現貨比特幣 ETF 的資金明顯放緩，過去一周資金流出占主導地位。

Halving Euphoria Wanes, Profit-Taking Intensifies

減半興奮感減弱，獲利回吐加劇

The upcoming Bitcoin halving event, which will reduce miner rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.25 BTC, has been eagerly anticipated by the market. However, JPMorgan strategists caution that the euphoria surrounding the event is likely to fade, leading to profit-taking and further declines.

即將到來的比特幣減半事件，將使礦工獎勵從 6.25 BTC 減少至 3.25 BTC，受到市場熱切期待。然而，摩根大通策略師警告稱，圍繞該事件的興奮情緒可能會消退，導致獲利了結和進一步下跌。

Last month, JPMorgan predicted that Bitcoin would gradually decline towards $42,000 after April, as the excitement around the halving event subsides.

上個月，摩根大通預測，隨著減半事件的興奮消退，比特幣將在 4 月後逐漸跌向 42,000 美元。

Spot ETF Netflows Slow, Signaling Shift in Sentiment

現貨 ETF 資金流量緩慢，顯示市場情緒轉變

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has also observed a slowdown in Bitcoin spot ETF netflows, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment. Ju notes that if the price of Bitcoin approaches critical support levels, demand may rebound.

CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 也觀察到比特幣現貨 ETF 淨流量放緩，顯示市場情緒可能發生轉變。 Ju指出，如果比特幣的價格接近關鍵支撐位，需求可能會反彈。

However, he also highlights that a significant number of new whales, primarily ETF buyers, have entered the market with an on-chain cost basis of $56,000. This suggests that these whales may be willing to hold their positions, even in the face of a downturn.

不過，他也強調，大量新鯨魚（主要是 ETF 買家）已進入市場，鏈上成本為 56,000 美元。這表明，即使面對經濟低迷，這些鯨魚也可能願意堅守自己的立場。

Historical Corrections Suggest "Max Pain" Level

歷史修正顯示「最大痛苦」水平

Ju's analysis of historical data indicates that corrections in bull markets typically involve a maximum drawdown of around 30%. In the current scenario, this would translate to a "max pain" level of $51,000 for Bitcoin.

Ju對歷史數據的分析表明，多頭市場的調整通常涉及最大30%左右的回撤。在當前情況下，這將意味著比特幣的「最大痛苦」水平為 51,000 美元。

Conclusion: Bearish Signals Dominate, But Upside Potential Remains

結論：看跌訊號占主導地位，但上行潛力仍存在

JPMorgan strategists remain bearish on Bitcoin in the near term, citing waning ETF demand and overbought conditions. However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju suggests that demand may rebound if the price of Bitcoin approaches critical support levels. The presence of new whales with a higher cost basis may also provide some cushion against further declines.

摩根大通策略師短期內仍然看空比特幣，理由是 ETF 需求減弱和超買狀況。然而，CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 表示，如果比特幣價格接近關鍵支撐位，需求可能會反彈。成本基礎較高的新鯨魚的出現也可能為進一步下降提供一定的緩衝。