比特币的市场舞蹈：在机构兴趣中与股票的相关性重新浮现

新冠疫情过后，比特币与股票的相关性有所减弱。贝莱德建议将比特币的风险敞口限制在 1-3%，以进行风险管理，因为与黄金一样，比特币的相关性现在接近于零。然而，由于比特币 ETF 及其对短期实际利率和长期通胀预期等宏观经济因素的敏感性，预计相关性将会增加。

Bitcoin's Correlation with Stocks: A Dynamic Relationship Amidst Market Turbulence

比特币与股票的相关性：市场动荡中的动态关系

Bitcoin, the enigmatic cryptocurrency, has exhibited a complex relationship with traditional stock markets, oscillating between periods of correlation and divergence. In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, Bitcoin's correlation with stocks experienced a notable decline. However, recent market developments suggest a potential resurgence in this connection.

比特币是一种神秘的加密货币，与传统股票市场表现出复杂的关系，在相关期和背离期之间振荡。在 COVID-19 大流行之后，比特币与股票的相关性显着下降。然而，最近的市场发展表明这方面有可能复苏。

A History of Fluctuating Correlation

波动相关性的历史

Over the years, Bitcoin has demonstrated a fluctuating correlation with stocks. During the bull market of 2020 to 2022, Bitcoin often moved in tandem with U.S. stocks, leading to its classification as a "growth stock" by financial institutions. This correlation was driven by the influx of speculative capital and the perception of Bitcoin as a potential hedge against inflation.

多年来，比特币与股票表现出波动的相关性。在2020年至2022年的牛市期间，比特币经常与美股同步走势，导致其被金融机构归类为“成长股”。这种相关性是由投机资本的涌入以及比特币作为潜在的通胀对冲工具的看法推动的。

However, in 2023, Bitcoin's correlation with stocks began to weaken. This decoupling was partly attributed to a series of bankruptcies within the crypto industry, which eroded confidence among investors. The decline in correlation also coincided with the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, which dampened risk appetite across markets.

然而，到了2023年，比特币与股票的相关性开始减弱。这种脱钩的部分原因是加密行业内的一系列破产，这削弱了投资者的信心。相关性下降也与美联储大幅加息同时发生，这抑制了整个市场的风险偏好。

Re-emerging Correlation and Institutional Interest

重新出现的相关性和机构利益

Despite the recent divergence, analysts predict a resurgence in the correlation between stocks and Bitcoin. This expected increase is driven by the growing adoption of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are attracting institutional investors to the cryptocurrency. As ETFs provide a regulated and accessible entry point for institutional capital, they are expected to increase the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets.

尽管最近存在分歧，但分析师预测股票和比特币之间的相关性将重新抬头。这一预期增长是由比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）越来越多的采用推动的，这些基金吸引了机构投资者投资这种加密货币。由于 ETF 为机构资本提供了一个受监管且可访问的切入点，因此预计它们将增加比特币与传统市场之间的相关性。

Eric Chen, chief executive and co-founder of Injective Labs, believes that as the crypto market matures, it will inevitably become a part of the portfolios of large investment funds. This institutional involvement will further strengthen the connection between Bitcoin and stocks.

Injective Labs 首席执行官兼联合创始人 Eric Chen 认为，随着加密货币市场的成熟，它将不可避免地成为大型投资基金投资组合的一部分。这种机构的参与将进一步加强比特币与股票之间的联系。

Macroeconomic Influences and Risk Management

宏观经济影响和风险管理

Robert Mitchnick, digital assets lead at BlackRock, has highlighted the macroeconomic factors underlying Bitcoin's correlation with equities. According to Mitchnick, Bitcoin has a strong positive correlation with inflation expectations and a negative correlation with real interest rates. This relationship suggests that Bitcoin may be perceived as a hedge against inflation and a speculative asset in periods of low interest rates.

贝莱德 (BlackRock) 数字资产主管罗伯特·米奇尼克 (Robert Mitchnick) 强调了比特币与股票相关性背后的宏观经济因素。米奇尼克认为，比特币与通胀预期呈强正相关，与实际利率呈负相关。这种关系表明，比特币可能被视为对冲通胀的工具和低利率时期的投机资产。

Amidst the re-emerging correlation and increased institutional interest, BlackRock advises investors to limit their exposure to Bitcoin to between 1% and 3% for effective risk management. This recommendation reflects the inherent volatility of Bitcoin and the need for diversification in investment portfolios.

在相关性重新出现和机构兴趣增加的情况下，贝莱德建议投资者将比特币敞口限制在 1% 至 3% 之间，以进行有效的风险管理。这一建议反映了比特币固有的波动性以及投资组合多元化的需要。

Continued Market Optimism

市场持续乐观

Despite fluctuations in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF inflows, the cryptocurrency has recently surged past the $70,000 mark, indicating ongoing market optimism. The accumulation of over 51,959 BTC by key investors in a single day, as reported by Santiment, further underscores the positive sentiment surrounding Bitcoin.

尽管贝莱德的比特币 ETF 资金流入出现波动，但该加密货币最近已飙升至 70,000 美元大关，表明市场持续乐观。据 Santiment 报道，主要投资者单日积累了超过 51,959 BTC，进一步凸显了围绕比特币的积极情绪。

However, while Bitcoin's correlation with stocks may be strengthening, it is crucial to emphasize the importance of maintaining liquidity in stablecoins like Tether and USD Coin to support trading activity and mitigate market volatility.

然而，虽然比特币与股票的相关性可能正在加强，但必须强调保持 Tether 和 USD Coin 等稳定币流动性的重要性，以支持交易活动并减轻市场波动。

Conclusion

结论

Bitcoin's correlation with stocks remains a dynamic and evolving relationship, influenced by a myriad of factors ranging from institutional adoption to macroeconomic conditions. While a resurgence in correlation is anticipated, it is essential for investors to approach Bitcoin with a holistic perspective, considering both its potential for growth and its inherent risks.

比特币与股票的相关性仍然是一种动态且不断变化的关系，受到从机构采用到宏观经济条件等多种因素的影响。尽管预计相关性将会复苏，但投资者必须从整体角度看待比特币，同时考虑其增长潜力和固有风险。