比特幣的市場舞蹈：在機構利益中與股票的相關性重新浮現

新冠疫情過後，比特幣與股票的相關性減弱。貝萊德建議將比特幣的風險敞口限制在 1-3%，以進行風險管理，因為與黃金一樣，比特幣的相關性現在接近零。然而，由於比特幣 ETF 及其對短期實際利率和長期通膨預期等宏觀經濟因素的敏感性，預計相關性將會增加。

Bitcoin's Correlation with Stocks: A Dynamic Relationship Amidst Market Turbulence

比特幣與股票的相關性：市場動盪中的動態關係

Bitcoin, the enigmatic cryptocurrency, has exhibited a complex relationship with traditional stock markets, oscillating between periods of correlation and divergence. In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, Bitcoin's correlation with stocks experienced a notable decline. However, recent market developments suggest a potential resurgence in this connection.

比特幣是一種神秘的加密貨幣，與傳統股票市場表現出複雜的關係，在相關時期和背離期之間振盪。在 COVID-19 大流行之後，比特幣與股票的相關性顯著下降。然而，最近的市場發展表明這方面有可能復甦。

A History of Fluctuating Correlation

波動相關性的歷史

Over the years, Bitcoin has demonstrated a fluctuating correlation with stocks. During the bull market of 2020 to 2022, Bitcoin often moved in tandem with U.S. stocks, leading to its classification as a "growth stock" by financial institutions. This correlation was driven by the influx of speculative capital and the perception of Bitcoin as a potential hedge against inflation.

多年來，比特幣與股票表現出波動的相關性。在2020年至2022年的多頭市場期間，比特幣經常與美股同步走勢，導致其被金融機構歸類為「成長股」。這種相關性是由投機資本的湧入以及比特幣作為潛在的通膨對沖工具的看法所推動的。

However, in 2023, Bitcoin's correlation with stocks began to weaken. This decoupling was partly attributed to a series of bankruptcies within the crypto industry, which eroded confidence among investors. The decline in correlation also coincided with the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, which dampened risk appetite across markets.

然而，到了2023年，比特幣與股票的相關性開始減弱。這種脫鉤的部分原因是加密產業內的一系列破產，這削弱了投資者的信心。相關性下降也與聯準會大幅升息同時發生，抑制了整個市場的風險偏好。

Re-emerging Correlation and Institutional Interest

重新出現的相關性和機構利益

Despite the recent divergence, analysts predict a resurgence in the correlation between stocks and Bitcoin. This expected increase is driven by the growing adoption of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are attracting institutional investors to the cryptocurrency. As ETFs provide a regulated and accessible entry point for institutional capital, they are expected to increase the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets.

儘管最近存在分歧，但分析師預測股票和比特幣之間的相關性將重新抬頭。這一預期成長是由比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）越來越多的採用所推動的，這些基金吸引了機構投資者投資這種加密貨幣。由於 ETF 為機構資本提供了一個受監管且可訪問的切入點，因此預計它們將增加比特幣與傳統市場之間的相關性。

Eric Chen, chief executive and co-founder of Injective Labs, believes that as the crypto market matures, it will inevitably become a part of the portfolios of large investment funds. This institutional involvement will further strengthen the connection between Bitcoin and stocks.

Injective Labs 執行長兼聯合創始人 Eric Chen 認為，隨著加密貨幣市場的成熟，它將不可避免地成為大型投資基金投資組合的一部分。這種機構的參與將進一步加強比特幣與股票之間的連結。

Macroeconomic Influences and Risk Management

宏觀經濟影響與風險管理

Robert Mitchnick, digital assets lead at BlackRock, has highlighted the macroeconomic factors underlying Bitcoin's correlation with equities. According to Mitchnick, Bitcoin has a strong positive correlation with inflation expectations and a negative correlation with real interest rates. This relationship suggests that Bitcoin may be perceived as a hedge against inflation and a speculative asset in periods of low interest rates.

貝萊德 (BlackRock) 數位資產主管羅伯特·米奇尼克 (Robert Mitchnick) 強調了比特幣與股票相關性背後的宏觀經濟因素。米奇尼克認為，比特幣與通膨預期呈強正相關，與實質利率呈負相關。這種關係表明，比特幣可能被視為對沖通膨的工具和低利率時期的投機資產。

Amidst the re-emerging correlation and increased institutional interest, BlackRock advises investors to limit their exposure to Bitcoin to between 1% and 3% for effective risk management. This recommendation reflects the inherent volatility of Bitcoin and the need for diversification in investment portfolios.

在相關性重新出現和機構興趣增加的情況下，貝萊德建議投資者將比特幣敞口限制在 1% 至 3% 之間，以進行有效的風險管理。這項建議反映了比特幣固有的波動性以及投資組合多元化的需要。

Continued Market Optimism

市場持續樂觀

Despite fluctuations in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF inflows, the cryptocurrency has recently surged past the $70,000 mark, indicating ongoing market optimism. The accumulation of over 51,959 BTC by key investors in a single day, as reported by Santiment, further underscores the positive sentiment surrounding Bitcoin.

儘管貝萊德的比特幣 ETF 資金流入出現波動，但該加密貨幣最近已飆升至 7 萬美元大關，顯示市場持續樂觀。根據 Santiment 報導，主要投資者單日累積了超過 51,959 BTC，進一步凸顯了圍繞比特幣的正面情緒。

However, while Bitcoin's correlation with stocks may be strengthening, it is crucial to emphasize the importance of maintaining liquidity in stablecoins like Tether and USD Coin to support trading activity and mitigate market volatility.

然而，雖然比特幣與股票的相關性可能正在加強，但必須強調保持 Tether 和 USD Coin 等穩定幣流動性的重要性，以支持交易活動並減輕市場波動。

Conclusion

結論

Bitcoin's correlation with stocks remains a dynamic and evolving relationship, influenced by a myriad of factors ranging from institutional adoption to macroeconomic conditions. While a resurgence in correlation is anticipated, it is essential for investors to approach Bitcoin with a holistic perspective, considering both its potential for growth and its inherent risks.

比特幣與股票的相關性仍然是一種動態且不斷變化的關係，受到從機構採用到宏觀經濟條件等多種因素的影響。儘管預計相關性將會復甦，但投資者必須從整體角度看待比特幣，同時考慮其成長潛力和固有風險。