比特币减半、利率投机、硬资产崛起冲击数字资产市场

减半事件之后，比特币矿工面临着区块奖励的减少。然而，供应动态表明该资产的价值可能会增加，比特币在发行稀缺性方面目前超过了黄金。尽管最近加密货币市场的反弹被消除，但随着金融市场出现主要趋势，数字资产投资者预计价值将继续升值。

Digital Assets: Bitcoin Halving, Interest Rate Speculation, and the Rise of Hard Assets

数字资产：比特币减半、利率投机、硬资产崛起

Amidst the recent Bitcoin halving event, the digital asset industry grapples with shifting market dynamics and heightened uncertainty. While Bitcoin miners face a substantial reduction in block rewards, positive indicators emerge regarding the asset's supply and scarcity. Moreover, broader financial market trends suggest that hard assets could continue their upward trajectory.

在最近的比特币减半事件中，数字资产行业正在努力应对不断变化的市场动态和加剧的不确定性。尽管比特币矿工面临着区块奖励的大幅减少，但有关该资产的供应和稀缺性的积极指标却出现了。此外，更广泛的金融市场趋势表明，硬资产可能会继续呈上升趋势。

Bitcoin Halving and Miner Revenues

比特币减半和矿工收入

On April 20, 2024, Bitcoin underwent its fourth halving, a significant event that reduces the block subsidy by 50%. This has led to a drop in the daily issuance of Bitcoin from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Notably, miners collected over $100 million in revenue during the halving, marking the highest single-day total ever recorded.

2024年4月20日，比特币经历了第四次减半，这是一个重大事件，区块补贴减少了50%。这导致比特币的每日发行量从 6.25 BTC 下降至 3.125 BTC。值得注意的是，矿工在减半期间获得了超过 1 亿美元的收入，创下了有史以来最高的单日总收入。

However, the halving also means that miners must adapt to decreased block rewards. Gemini's Weekly Market Update highlights that this could potentially reshape the mining industry. Miners will need to explore alternative revenue streams or face reduced profitability.

然而，减半也意味着矿工必须适应区块奖励的减少。双子座的每周市场更新强调这可能会重塑采矿业。矿商将需要探索替代收入来源，否则将面临盈利能力下降的局面。

Interest Rate Speculation and Bitcoin Volatility

利率投机和比特币波动

In the broader financial landscape, speculators eagerly await the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting to gauge its stance on interest rates. US inflation rates have shown signs of easing, along with weakening demand in the manufacturing and service sectors. The crypto community hopes that the Fed will maintain current interest rates to foster price stability and mitigate volatility in the Bitcoin market.

在更广泛的金融格局中，投机者热切等待即将召开的美联储会议，以评估其利率立场。美国通胀率已显示出放缓迹象，制造业和服务业需求也疲软。加密货币社区希望美联储维持当前利率，以促进价格稳定并减轻比特币市场的波动。

Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Market Trends

现货比特币 ETF 和市场趋势

Amidst the Bitcoin halving event, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have experienced renewed interest. After a period of net outflows leading up to the halving, spot BTC ETFs in the US have rebounded. This indicates that investors are seeking exposure to Bitcoin without the complexities of direct ownership.

在比特币减半事件中，现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）重新引起人们的兴趣。在经历了减半前一段时间的净流出之后，美国的现货 BTC ETF 已经反弹。这表明投资者正在寻求投资比特币，而无需复杂的直接所有权。

Blockchain Developments: Ripple Lawsuit, Tether Freeze

区块链发展：Ripple 诉讼、Tether 冻结

In the wider blockchain space, Ripple Labs continues to challenge the US Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) proposed $2 billion fine for allegedly selling its XRP cryptocurrency as an unregistered security. A group of crypto lobbyists has filed a lawsuit against the SEC, claiming that it is overstepping its authority.

在更广泛的区块链领域，Ripple Labs 继续挑战美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 因涉嫌将其 XRP 加密货币作为未注册证券出售而提出的 20 亿美元罚款。一群加密货币游说者对 SEC 提起诉讼，声称其越权。

Separately, Tether, the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, has announced that it will freeze any addresses linked to entities sanctioned by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). This move is in response to allegations that Venezuela's state oil company used USDT to circumvent US sanctions.

另外，USDT 稳定币的发行人 Tether 宣布将冻结与美国外国资产控制办公室 (OFAC) 制裁的实体相关的任何地址。此举是为了回应委内瑞拉国家石油公司利用 USDT 规避美国制裁的指控。

Macroeconomic Forces and Hard Asset Appreciation

宏观经济力量与硬资产升值

Digital asset investor Anthony Pompliano underscores the growing national debt of the United States, which now exceeds $34.6 trillion. Despite this alarming figure, the government continues to run an estimated $2 trillion annual deficit. As a consequence, the annual interest expense on this debt has surged past $1 trillion.

数字资产投资者 Anthony Pompliano 强调美国国债不断增长，目前已超过 34.6 万亿美元。尽管这个数字令人震惊，但政府的年度赤字仍高达 2 万亿美元。结果，该债务的年度利息支出已飙升至 1 万亿美元以上。

Pompliano argues that the only viable path for the US is to continue borrowing money, leading to an expansion of the national debt, a devaluation of the US dollar, and an appreciation of hard assets. This dynamic is supported by the Kobeissi Letter, which highlights the exponential growth in annual interest expense on US debt since 2020.

庞普里亚诺认为，美国唯一可行的道路是继续借钱，导致国债扩张、美元贬值和硬资产升值。这一动态得到了科贝西信的支持，该信强调了自 2020 年以来美国债务的年度利息支出呈指数级增长。

Crypto Market Rebound and Spot ETFs in Asia

亚洲加密货币市场反弹和现货 ETF

This week, crypto markets experienced a brief rebound, although these gains have since been erased. Earlier in the week, major cryptocurrencies saw a 5.8% weekly increase in total market capitalization. Bitcoin rose 4.9%, while Ethereum outperformed with a 5.2% gain.

本周，加密货币市场经历了短暂的反弹，但此后涨幅已被抹去。本周早些时候，主要加密货币的总市值每周增长 5.8%。比特币上涨 4.9%，以太坊上涨 5.2%，表现优于大市。

In the US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF universe, net inflows have occurred in ex-GBTC ETFs. However, these inflows have been relatively modest compared to previous months. The SEC has extended its decision timeline for the Franklin Ether ETF to June 11, 2024, and the Grayscale Ethereum Trust to June 23, 2024.

在美国上市的现货比特币 ETF 领域，前 GBTC ETF 出现了净流入。然而，与前几个月相比，这些资金流入相对温和。美国证券交易委员会已将富兰克林以太坊 ETF 的决策时间表延长至 2024 年 6 月 11 日，将灰度以太坊信托基金的决策时间表延长至 2024 年 6 月 23 日。

While spot Bitcoin ETF flows diminish in the West, the East prepares to launch six crypto-based spot ETFs starting April 30th. These ETFs will allow investors to speculate on the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum without direct ownership. Unlike US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which are cash-only, Hong Kong's newly listed funds will be in-kind, potentially offering reduced complexity and costs for investors.

虽然现货比特币 ETF 流量在西方减少，但东方准备从 4 月 30 日开始推出六只基于加密货币的现货 ETF。这些 ETF 将允许投资者在没有直接所有权的情况下推测比特币和以太坊的价格。与仅接受现金的美国现货比特币 ETF 不同，香港新上市的基金将以实物形式存在，这可能会降低投资者的复杂性和成本。

Bitcoin Halving and Issuance Scarcity

比特币减半和发行稀缺

The recent Bitcoin halving has prompted a significant comparison to gold in terms of issuance scarcity. According to a Glassnode report, Bitcoin's steady-state issuance rate (0.83%) has become lower than gold's (around 2.3%), marking a milestone in the asset's history. This signifies a handover of the title of scarcest asset.

最近的比特币减半引发了与黄金在发行稀缺性方面的重大比较。根据 Glassnode 的一份报告，比特币的稳态发行率（0.83%）已低于黄金的发行率（约 2.3%），标志着该资产历史上的一个里程碑。这标志着最稀缺资产头衔的交接。

However, Glassnode notes that the impact of Bitcoin halving events on the available traded BTC supply may be diminishing. Miner revenues also exhibit a decreasing growth rate when measured in USD, but there is a net expansion in absolute size. Cumulative miner revenue has surpassed $3 billion over the past four years.

然而，Glassnode 指出，比特币减半事件对可用交易比特币供应的影响可能正在减弱。以美元计算，矿工收入的增长率也呈现下降趋势，但绝对规模却出现了净扩张。过去四年，矿工累计收入已超过 30 亿美元。

Hashrate Growth and Security Implications

算力增长和安全影响

Bitcoin's hashrate, a measure of the collective power of the mining community, has continued to surge, reaching an impressive 620 Exahash per second. Despite a slower growth rate across halving epochs, the absolute number of hashes per second keeps increasing. This trend suggests that either more ASIC rigs are being brought online or more efficient hashing ASIC hardware is being developed.

比特币的哈希率（衡量挖矿社区集体力量的指标）持续飙升，达到令人印象深刻的每秒 620 Exahash。尽管减半时期的增长率较慢，但每秒的绝对哈希数仍在增加。这一趋势表明，要么有更多 ASIC 设备上线，要么正在开发更高效的哈希 ASIC 硬件。

Regardless, the combined security budget for Bitcoin has proven sufficient to cover operational expenses and fuel further investment in both capital expenditures and operational domains, despite the 50% reduction in issuance with each halving.

无论如何，比特币的综合安全预算已被证明足以支付运营费用并推动资本支出和运营领域的进一步投资，尽管每次减半发行量都会减少 50%。

Funding Rates and Spot Price Volatility

资金费率和现货价格波动

In the market dynamics, funding rates on perpetual contracts for both BTC and ETH have dipped into negative territory since the recent price downturn. This indicates that traders are aggressively taking short positions on perpetual contracts. However, despite these negative funding rates, prices have rebounded, suggesting that spot demand has driven recent price action.

从市场动态来看，自近期价格下跌以来，BTC 和 ETH 永续合约的融资利率均已跌至负值。这表明交易者正在积极建立永续合约空头头寸。然而，尽管融资利率为负，价格仍然反弹，表明现货需求推动了近期的价格走势。

The Talos market update concludes that if the spot price continues to rise, short sellers may be forced to unwind their short positions, potentially leading to further price increases. This dynamic underscores the intricate interplay between spot demand and market sentiment in the crypto asset space.

Talos 市场更新的结论是，如果现货价格继续上涨，卖空者可能会被迫解除空头头寸，从而可能导致价格进一步上涨。这种动态凸显了加密资产领域现货需求和市场情绪之间错综复杂的相互作用。