比特幣減半、利率投機、硬資產崛起衝擊數位資產市場

減半事件之後，比特幣礦工面臨區塊獎勵的減少。然而，供應動態表明該資產的價值可能會增加，比特幣在發行稀缺性方面目前超過了黃金。儘管最近加密貨幣市場的反彈被消除，但隨著金融市場出現主要趨勢，數位資產投資者預期價值將繼續升值。

Digital Assets: Bitcoin Halving, Interest Rate Speculation, and the Rise of Hard Assets

數位資產：比特幣減半、利率投機、硬資產崛起

Amidst the recent Bitcoin halving event, the digital asset industry grapples with shifting market dynamics and heightened uncertainty. While Bitcoin miners face a substantial reduction in block rewards, positive indicators emerge regarding the asset's supply and scarcity. Moreover, broader financial market trends suggest that hard assets could continue their upward trajectory.

在最近的比特幣減半事件中，數位資產產業正在努力應對不斷變化的市場動態和加劇的不確定性。儘管比特幣礦工面臨著區塊獎勵的大幅減少，但有關該資產的供應和稀缺性的積極指標卻出現了。此外，更廣泛的金融市場趨勢表明，硬資產可能會繼續呈上升趨勢。

Bitcoin Halving and Miner Revenues

比特幣減半和礦工收入

On April 20, 2024, Bitcoin underwent its fourth halving, a significant event that reduces the block subsidy by 50%. This has led to a drop in the daily issuance of Bitcoin from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Notably, miners collected over $100 million in revenue during the halving, marking the highest single-day total ever recorded.

2024年4月20日，比特幣經歷了第四次減半，這是一個重大事件，區塊補貼減少了50%。這導致比特幣的每日發行量從 6.25 BTC 下降至 3.125 BTC。值得注意的是，礦工在減半期間獲得了超過 1 億美元的收入，創下了有史以來最高的單日總收入。

However, the halving also means that miners must adapt to decreased block rewards. Gemini's Weekly Market Update highlights that this could potentially reshape the mining industry. Miners will need to explore alternative revenue streams or face reduced profitability.

然而，減半也意味著礦工必須適應區塊獎勵的減少。雙子座的每週市場更新強調這可能會重塑採礦業。礦商將需要探索替代收入來源，否則將面臨獲利能力下降的局面。

Interest Rate Speculation and Bitcoin Volatility

利率投機和比特幣波動

In the broader financial landscape, speculators eagerly await the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting to gauge its stance on interest rates. US inflation rates have shown signs of easing, along with weakening demand in the manufacturing and service sectors. The crypto community hopes that the Fed will maintain current interest rates to foster price stability and mitigate volatility in the Bitcoin market.

在更廣泛的金融格局中，投機者熱切等待即將召開的聯準會會議，以評估其利率立場。美國通膨率已顯示出放緩跡象，製造業和服務業需求也疲軟。加密貨幣社群希望聯準會維持當前利率，以促進價格穩定並減輕比特幣市場的波動。

Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Market Trends

現貨比特幣 ETF 和市場趨勢

Amidst the Bitcoin halving event, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have experienced renewed interest. After a period of net outflows leading up to the halving, spot BTC ETFs in the US have rebounded. This indicates that investors are seeking exposure to Bitcoin without the complexities of direct ownership.

在比特幣減半事件中，現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）重新引起人們的興趣。在經歷了減半前一段時間的淨流出之後，美國的現貨 BTC ETF 已經反彈。這表明投資者正在尋求投資比特幣，而無需複雜的直接所有權。

Blockchain Developments: Ripple Lawsuit, Tether Freeze

區塊鏈發展：Ripple 訴訟、Tether 凍結

In the wider blockchain space, Ripple Labs continues to challenge the US Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) proposed $2 billion fine for allegedly selling its XRP cryptocurrency as an unregistered security. A group of crypto lobbyists has filed a lawsuit against the SEC, claiming that it is overstepping its authority.

在更廣泛的區塊鏈領域，Ripple Labs 繼續挑戰美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 因涉嫌將其 XRP 加密貨幣作為未註冊證券出售而提出的 20 億美元罰款。一群加密貨幣遊說者對 SEC 提起訴訟，聲稱越權。

Separately, Tether, the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, has announced that it will freeze any addresses linked to entities sanctioned by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). This move is in response to allegations that Venezuela's state oil company used USDT to circumvent US sanctions.

另外，USDT 穩定幣的發行人 Tether 宣布將凍結與美國外國資產管制辦公室 (OFAC) 制裁的實體相關的任何地址。此舉是為了回應委內瑞拉國家石油公司利用 USDT 來規避美國制裁的指控。

Macroeconomic Forces and Hard Asset Appreciation

宏觀經濟力量與硬資產升值

Digital asset investor Anthony Pompliano underscores the growing national debt of the United States, which now exceeds $34.6 trillion. Despite this alarming figure, the government continues to run an estimated $2 trillion annual deficit. As a consequence, the annual interest expense on this debt has surged past $1 trillion.

數位資產投資者 Anthony Pompliano 強調美國公債不斷增長，目前已超過 34.6 兆美元。儘管這個數字令人震驚，但政府的年度赤字仍高達 2 兆美元。結果，該債務的年度利息支出已飆升至 1 兆美元以上。

Pompliano argues that the only viable path for the US is to continue borrowing money, leading to an expansion of the national debt, a devaluation of the US dollar, and an appreciation of hard assets. This dynamic is supported by the Kobeissi Letter, which highlights the exponential growth in annual interest expense on US debt since 2020.

龐普里亞諾認為，美國唯一可行的道路是繼續借錢，導致國債擴張、美元貶值和硬資產升值。這一動態得到了科貝西信的支持，該信強調了自 2020 年以來美國債務的年度利息支出呈指數級增長。

Crypto Market Rebound and Spot ETFs in Asia

亞洲加密貨幣市場反彈和現貨 ETF

This week, crypto markets experienced a brief rebound, although these gains have since been erased. Earlier in the week, major cryptocurrencies saw a 5.8% weekly increase in total market capitalization. Bitcoin rose 4.9%, while Ethereum outperformed with a 5.2% gain.

本週，加密貨幣市場經歷了短暫的反彈，但此後漲幅已被抹去。本週早些時候，主要加密貨幣的總市值每週增長 5.8%。比特幣上漲 4.9%，以太幣上漲 5.2%，表現優於大盤。

In the US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF universe, net inflows have occurred in ex-GBTC ETFs. However, these inflows have been relatively modest compared to previous months. The SEC has extended its decision timeline for the Franklin Ether ETF to June 11, 2024, and the Grayscale Ethereum Trust to June 23, 2024.

在美國上市的現貨比特幣 ETF 領域，前 GBTC ETF 出現了淨流入。然而，與前幾個月相比，這些資金流入相對溫和。美國證券交易委員會已將富蘭克林以太坊 ETF 的決策時間表延長至 2024 年 6 月 11 日，將灰階以太坊信託基金的決策時間表延長至 2024 年 6 月 23 日。

While spot Bitcoin ETF flows diminish in the West, the East prepares to launch six crypto-based spot ETFs starting April 30th. These ETFs will allow investors to speculate on the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum without direct ownership. Unlike US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which are cash-only, Hong Kong's newly listed funds will be in-kind, potentially offering reduced complexity and costs for investors.

雖然現貨比特幣 ETF 流量在西方減少，但東方準備從 4 月 30 日開始推出六隻基於加密貨幣的現貨 ETF。這些 ETF 將允許投資者在沒有直接所有權的情況下推測比特幣和以太坊的價格。與僅接受現金的美國現貨比特幣 ETF 不同，香港新上市的基金將以實體形式存在，這可能會降低投資者的複雜性和成本。

Bitcoin Halving and Issuance Scarcity

比特幣減半發行稀缺

The recent Bitcoin halving has prompted a significant comparison to gold in terms of issuance scarcity. According to a Glassnode report, Bitcoin's steady-state issuance rate (0.83%) has become lower than gold's (around 2.3%), marking a milestone in the asset's history. This signifies a handover of the title of scarcest asset.

最近的比特幣減半引發了與黃金在發行稀缺性方面的重大比較。根據 Glassnode 的報告，比特幣的穩態發行率（0.83%）已低於黃金的發行率（約 2.3%），標誌著該資產歷史上的一個里程碑。這標誌著最稀缺資產頭銜的交接。

However, Glassnode notes that the impact of Bitcoin halving events on the available traded BTC supply may be diminishing. Miner revenues also exhibit a decreasing growth rate when measured in USD, but there is a net expansion in absolute size. Cumulative miner revenue has surpassed $3 billion over the past four years.

然而，Glassnode 指出，比特幣減半事件對可用交易比特幣供應的影響可能正在減弱。以美元計算，礦工收入的成長率也呈現下降趨勢，但絕對規模卻出現了淨擴張。過去四年，礦工累計收入已超過 30 億美元。

Hashrate Growth and Security Implications

算力成長和安全影響

Bitcoin's hashrate, a measure of the collective power of the mining community, has continued to surge, reaching an impressive 620 Exahash per second. Despite a slower growth rate across halving epochs, the absolute number of hashes per second keeps increasing. This trend suggests that either more ASIC rigs are being brought online or more efficient hashing ASIC hardware is being developed.

比特幣的哈希率（衡量挖礦社區集體力量的指標）持續飆升，達到令人印象深刻的每秒 620 Exahash。儘管減半時期的成長率較慢，但每秒的絕對哈希數仍在增加。這一趨勢表明，要么有更多 ASIC 設備上線，要么正在開發更有效率的哈希 ASIC 硬體。

Regardless, the combined security budget for Bitcoin has proven sufficient to cover operational expenses and fuel further investment in both capital expenditures and operational domains, despite the 50% reduction in issuance with each halving.

無論如何，比特幣的綜合安全預算已被證明足以支付營運費用並推動資本支出和營運領域的進一步投資，儘管每次減半發行量都會減少 50%。

Funding Rates and Spot Price Volatility

資金費率和現貨價格波動

In the market dynamics, funding rates on perpetual contracts for both BTC and ETH have dipped into negative territory since the recent price downturn. This indicates that traders are aggressively taking short positions on perpetual contracts. However, despite these negative funding rates, prices have rebounded, suggesting that spot demand has driven recent price action.

從市場動態來看，自近期價格下跌以來，BTC 和 ETH 永續合約的融資利率都已跌至負值。這顯示交易者正在積極建立永續合約空頭部位。然而，儘管融資利率為負，價格仍然反彈，顯示現貨需求推動了近期的價格走勢。

The Talos market update concludes that if the spot price continues to rise, short sellers may be forced to unwind their short positions, potentially leading to further price increases. This dynamic underscores the intricate interplay between spot demand and market sentiment in the crypto asset space.

Talos 市場更新的結論是，如果現貨價格繼續上漲，賣空者可能會被迫解除空頭頭寸，這可能會導致價格進一步上漲。這種動態凸顯了加密資產領域現貨需求和市場情緒之間錯綜複雜的相互作用。