比特币减半：不确定的经济环境中的历史收益

在短短两天内，比特币将经历第四次挖矿奖励减半，每个区块的排放量将从 6.25 BTC 大幅削减至 3.125 BTC。从历史上看，此类减半导致了比特币持续数月的大幅上涨，引发了对这次类似结果的预期。然而，鉴于当前高通胀和高利率的宏观环境形成鲜明对比，高盛建议谨慎行事，不要根据之前的周期进行推断。

Bitcoin's Block Reward Halving: A Historical Perspective Amidst Economic Uncertainty

比特币的区块奖励减半：经济不确定性中的历史视角

In a highly anticipated event, Bitcoin is poised to undergo its fourth block reward halving in just two days, an occurrence that will significantly reduce the rate at which new bitcoins enter circulation. This halving, occurring approximately every four years, is expected to have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency's supply and demand dynamics.

在备受期待的事件中，比特币将在短短两天内经历第四次区块奖励减半，这一事件将大大降低新比特币进入流通的速度。这种减半大约每四年发生一次，预计将对加密货币的供需动态产生深远影响。

Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been followed by substantial price rallies, leading many within the crypto community to anticipate a similar outcome this time. However, investment banking giant Goldman Sachs has cautioned its clients against extrapolating from past halving cycles.

从历史上看，比特币减半后价格会大幅上涨，导致加密社区中的许多人预计这次会出现类似的结果。然而，投资银行巨头高盛警告其客户不要根据过去的减半周期进行推断。

In a note to clients issued on April 12th, Goldman's Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities (FICC) and Equities team highlighted that while previous halvings were indeed accompanied by price appreciation, the time taken to reach all-time highs varied considerably. The team urged caution, emphasizing that the prevailing macro conditions are vastly different from those of the previous halvings.

在 4 月 12 日发布的客户报告中，高盛固定收益、货币和商品 (FICC) 以及股票团队强调，虽然之前的减半确实伴随着价格升值，但达到历史高点所需的时间差异很大。该团队敦促谨慎行事，强调当前的宏观条件与之前的减半有很大不同。

A review of Bitcoin's performance following its three prior halvings on November 28th, 2012, July 9th, 2016, and May 11th, 2020, reveals that while bullish sentiment prevailed in all instances, the magnitude and duration of the subsequent peaks varied.

对比特币在 2012 年 11 月 28 日、2016 年 7 月 9 日和 2020 年 5 月 11 日三次减半后的表现进行回顾后发现，虽然在所有情况下看涨情绪都占主导地位，但随后峰值的幅度和持续时间各不相同。

More importantly, the macroeconomic environment at the time of these halvings was markedly different from today's era of high inflation and rising interest rates. In the years leading up to the 2020 halving, central banks globally, including the People's Bank of China, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the U.S. Federal Reserve, rapidly expanded the money supply. Interest rates in developed economies were anchored at or below zero, encouraging risk-taking across financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.

更重要的是，减半时的宏观经济环境与当今高通胀和利率上升的时代明显不同。在2020年减半之前的几年里，包括中国人民银行、欧洲央行、日本央行和美联储在内的全球央行迅速扩大了货币供应量。发达经济体的利率固定在零或以下，鼓励整个金融市场（包括加密货币）的风险承担。

Goldman Sachs, while acknowledging that the halving serves as a "psychological reminder to investors of BTC's capped supply," believes that the adoption of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will play a more significant role in shaping the cryptocurrency's medium-term outlook.

高盛虽然承认减半是“对投资者比特币供应有限的心理提醒”，但相信比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的采用将在塑造加密货币的中期前景方面发挥更重要的作用。

In the team's view, the impact of the halving on Bitcoin's price action next week may be less consequential than the ongoing supply-demand dynamics and the continued demand for Bitcoin ETFs. The interplay of these factors, combined with the reflexive nature of crypto markets, will ultimately determine Bitcoin's spot price trajectory.

该团队认为，减半对比特币下周价格走势的影响可能不如持续的供需动态和对比特币 ETF 的持续需求那么重要。这些因素的相互作用，再加上加密货币市场的反射性质，将最终决定比特币的现货价格轨迹。

As Bitcoin approaches its fourth halving, it is crucial to consider both the historical precedent and the current economic landscape. While past halvings have indeed been associated with price rallies, the macroeconomic environment, market sentiment, and regulatory developments can significantly influence the outcome this time around. Investors are advised to approach the halving with caution while remaining cognizant of the evolving market dynamics and the broader economic context.

随着比特币接近第四次减半，考虑历史先例和当前的经济形势至关重要。虽然过去的减半确实与价格上涨有关，但宏观经济环境、市场情绪和监管发展可能会对这一次的结果产生重大影响。建议投资者谨慎对待减半，同时保持对不断变化的市场动态和更广泛的经济背景的认识。