比特幣減半：不確定的經濟環境中的歷史收益

在短短兩天內，比特幣將經歷第四次挖礦獎勵減半，每個區塊的排放量將從 6.25 BTC 大幅削減至 3.125 BTC。從歷史上看，此類減半導致了比特幣持續數月的大幅上漲，引發了對這次類似結果的預期。然而，鑑於當前高通膨和高利率的宏觀環境形成鮮明對比，高盛建議謹慎行事，不要根據先前的週期進行推論。

Bitcoin's Block Reward Halving: A Historical Perspective Amidst Economic Uncertainty

比特幣的區塊獎勵減半：經濟不確定性中的歷史視角

In a highly anticipated event, Bitcoin is poised to undergo its fourth block reward halving in just two days, an occurrence that will significantly reduce the rate at which new bitcoins enter circulation. This halving, occurring approximately every four years, is expected to have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency's supply and demand dynamics.

在備受期待的事件中，比特幣將在短短兩天內經歷第四次區塊獎勵減半，這一事件將大大降低新比特幣進入流通的速度。這種減半大約每四年發生一次，預計將對加密貨幣的供需動態產生深遠影響。

Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been followed by substantial price rallies, leading many within the crypto community to anticipate a similar outcome this time. However, investment banking giant Goldman Sachs has cautioned its clients against extrapolating from past halving cycles.

從歷史上看，比特幣減半後價格會大幅上漲，導致加密社群中的許多人預計這次會出現類似的結果。然而，投資銀行巨頭高盛警告其客戶不要根據過去的減半週期進行推論。

In a note to clients issued on April 12th, Goldman's Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities (FICC) and Equities team highlighted that while previous halvings were indeed accompanied by price appreciation, the time taken to reach all-time highs varied considerably. The team urged caution, emphasizing that the prevailing macro conditions are vastly different from those of the previous halvings.

在 4 月 12 日發布的客戶報告中，高盛固定收益、貨幣和商品 (FICC) 以及股票團隊強調，雖然先前的減半確實伴隨著價格升值，但達到歷史高點所需的時間差異很大。團隊敦促謹慎行事，強調當前的宏觀條件與先前的減半有很大不同。

A review of Bitcoin's performance following its three prior halvings on November 28th, 2012, July 9th, 2016, and May 11th, 2020, reveals that while bullish sentiment prevailed in all instances, the magnitude and duration of the subsequent peaks varied.

對比特幣在2012 年11 月28 日、2016 年7 月9 日和2020 年5 月11 日三次減半後的表現進行回顧後發現，雖然在所有情況下看漲情緒都占主導地位，但隨後峰值的幅度和持續時間各不相同。

More importantly, the macroeconomic environment at the time of these halvings was markedly different from today's era of high inflation and rising interest rates. In the years leading up to the 2020 halving, central banks globally, including the People's Bank of China, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the U.S. Federal Reserve, rapidly expanded the money supply. Interest rates in developed economies were anchored at or below zero, encouraging risk-taking across financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.

更重要的是，減半時的宏觀經濟環境與當今高通膨和利率上升的時代明顯不同。在2020年減半之前的幾年裡，包括中國人民銀行、歐洲央行、日本央行和聯準會在內的全球央行迅速擴大了貨幣供應量。已開發經濟體的利率固定在零或以下，鼓勵整個金融市場（包括加密貨幣）的風險承擔。

Goldman Sachs, while acknowledging that the halving serves as a "psychological reminder to investors of BTC's capped supply," believes that the adoption of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will play a more significant role in shaping the cryptocurrency's medium-term outlook.

高盛雖然承認減半是“對投資者比特幣供應有限的心理提醒”，但相信比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的採用將在塑造加密貨幣的中期前景方面發揮更重要的作用。

In the team's view, the impact of the halving on Bitcoin's price action next week may be less consequential than the ongoing supply-demand dynamics and the continued demand for Bitcoin ETFs. The interplay of these factors, combined with the reflexive nature of crypto markets, will ultimately determine Bitcoin's spot price trajectory.

團隊認為，減半對比特幣下週價格走勢的影響可能不如持續的供需動態和對比特幣 ETF 的持續需求那麼重要。這些因素的相互作用，再加上加密貨幣市場的反射性質，將最終決定比特幣的現貨價格軌跡。

As Bitcoin approaches its fourth halving, it is crucial to consider both the historical precedent and the current economic landscape. While past halvings have indeed been associated with price rallies, the macroeconomic environment, market sentiment, and regulatory developments can significantly influence the outcome this time around. Investors are advised to approach the halving with caution while remaining cognizant of the evolving market dynamics and the broader economic context.

隨著比特幣接近第四次減半，考慮歷史先例和當前的經濟狀況至關重要。雖然過去的減半確實與價格上漲有關，但宏觀經濟環境、市場情緒和監管發展可能會對這次的結果產生重大影響。建議投資者謹慎對待減半，同時保持對不斷變化的市場動態和更廣泛的經濟背景的認識。