经济动荡引发危机担忧，比特币和黄金飙升

在全球利率上升的情况下，比特币和黄金飙升至历史新高，可能反映出对金融危机的预期。公共债务水平升高（以英国最近的混乱为例）引发了人们对美国类似结果的担忧。随着偿债成本上升，美元崩溃的威胁加剧，刺激了对比特币和黄金等替代资产的需求。

Bitcoin and Gold Surge Amidst Global Economic Turmoil, Raising Concerns of a Crisis

全球经济动荡期间比特币和黄金飙升，引发危机担忧

Washington, D.C. - Amidst a backdrop of heightened interest rates, the prices of Bitcoin and gold have surged to record highs, signaling potential concerns over a looming financial crisis.

华盛顿特区 - 在利率上升的背景下，比特币和黄金的价格飙升至历史新高，表明人们对迫在眉睫的金融危机的潜在担忧。

The recent economic turmoil experienced by the United Kingdom serves as a cautionary tale. In 2022, the government's imprudent fiscal policies, including substantial tax cuts and increased spending, triggered a market meltdown. The British pound plummeted to historic lows against the US dollar, while the government of Prime Minister Liz Truss collapsed in record time.

英国最近经历的经济动荡是一个警示。 2022年，政府不审慎的财政政策，包括大幅减税和增加支出，引发了市场崩溃。英镑兑美元汇率暴跌至历史低点，而首相利兹·特拉斯的政府也在创纪录的时间内垮台。

The United States now faces similar risks if it continues to overlook its mounting federal debt, warns Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). "The danger is what the United Kingdom faced under former Prime Minister Truss, where policymakers tried to take action, and then there was a market reaction to that action," Swagel said in an interview with the Financial Times.

国会预算办公室 (CBO) 主任菲利普·斯瓦格尔警告说，如果美国继续忽视不断增加的联邦债务，美国现在也将面临类似的风险。斯瓦格尔在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示：“危险在于英国前首相特拉斯领导下所面临的情况，政策制定者试图采取行动，然后市场对此行动做出反应。”

While the US is not currently in the same dire situation as the UK, Swagel emphasizes that rising interest rates could increase the cost of servicing the debt to $1 trillion within two years, potentially leading to a pullback in bond markets.

尽管美国目前的处境并不像英国那样严峻，但斯瓦格尔强调，利率上升可能会使两年内偿债成本增加至 1 万亿美元，从而可能导致债券市场回落。

A collapse of the US dollar, a critical component of the global financial system, could fuel demand for safe-haven assets such as Bitcoin and gold. During the UK crisis in September 2022, trading volumes in Bitcoin-pound pairs skyrocketed.

作为全球金融体系重要组成部分的美元崩溃可能会刺激对比特币和黄金等避险资产的需求。 2022 年 9 月英国危机期间，比特币-英镑货币对的交易量飙升。

Despite elevated interest rates and bond yields worldwide, both Bitcoin and gold have reached new record highs, with Bitcoin surpassing $70,000 and gold exceeding $2,000 per ounce. These gains have outpaced their previous peaks from 2020-21, when interest rates were near or below zero.

尽管全球利率和债券收益率不断上升，但比特币和黄金均创下新高，其中比特币突破 70,000 美元，黄金突破 2,000 美元/盎司。这些涨幅超过了 2020-21 年利率接近或低于零的先前峰值。

"Rising debt levels and geopolitical turmoil may have contributed to offsetting the impact of higher yields on both assets," noted Kaiko, a Paris-based crypto data provider, in its weekly newsletter.

总部位于巴黎的加密数据提供商 Kaiko 在其每周通讯中指出，“不断上升的债务水平和地缘政治动荡可能有助于抵消收益率上升对这两种资产的影响。”

As of the end of 2023, the US federal debt had already reached $26.2 trillion, approximately 97% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), according to the CBO. The non-partisan agency projects that the debt-to-GDP ratio will surpass the record set during World War II (116%) by 2029, potentially reaching a staggering 166% by 2054.

根据国会预算办公室的数据，截至 2023 年底，美国联邦债务已达到 26.2 万亿美元，约占美国国内生产总值 (GDP) 的 97%。该无党派机构预计，到 2029 年，债务与 GDP 的比率将超过二战期间创下的纪录（116%），到 2054 年可能达到惊人的 166%。

The higher the debt, the more pressure there is to maintain artificially low real interest rates (adjusted for inflation) and bond yields. However, higher rates and debt levels exacerbate government interest spending, further fueling debt concerns.

债务越高，人为维持低实际利率（根据通货膨胀调整）和债券收益率的压力就越大。然而，较高的利率和债务水平加剧了政府利息支出，进一步加剧了债务担忧。

Negative real rates often prompt investors to shift their funds from fixed-income investments to higher-risk assets with potentially higher returns, such as technology stocks, cryptocurrencies, and safe havens like gold. This trend was evident in 2020-21.

负实际利率通常会促使投资者将资金从固定收益投资转向具有潜在更高回报的高风险资产，例如科技股、加密货币和黄金等避险资产。这一趋势在 2020-21 年尤为明显。

"In a highly indebted economy, negative real rates and financial repression are a necessary condition to keep the system running, and the devaluation of fiat currency remains the escape valve," explained the founders of the LondonCryptoClub newsletter service. They view concerns about debt as a macroeconomic catalyst for both Bitcoin and gold.

伦敦加密俱乐部时事通讯服务的创始人解释说：“在负债累累的经济体中，负实际利率和金融抑制是维持系统运行的必要条件，而法定货币贬值仍然是安全阀。”他们将对债务的担忧视为比特币和黄金的宏观经济催化剂。

According to the founders, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent decision to maintain forecasts of three rate cuts in the coming months, despite ongoing labor market strength and rising inflation, suggests that the central bank is now "focused on the US debt spiral."

创始人表示，尽管劳动力市场持续走强且通胀不断上升，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近仍决定维持未来几个月三次降息的预测，这表明美联储现在“专注于美国债务螺旋式上升”。

"Gold continues to signal that the macro sands are shifting. If net flows into ETFs turn positive this week, don't be surprised if Bitcoin captures the macro tailwinds and accelerates to new highs," the founders concluded.

“黄金继续表明宏观形势正在发生变化。如果本周 ETF 的净流入转为正值，那么如果比特币抓住宏观顺风并加速创出新高，也不要感到惊讶，”创始人总结道。

The surge in Bitcoin and gold prices serves as a reminder of the potential vulnerability of the global financial system to rising debt and geopolitical uncertainty. As these trends continue, it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin and gold will continue to provide a safe haven for investors or if they will ultimately succumb to a broader market crisis.

比特币和黄金价格的飙升提醒人们，全球金融体系对债务上升和地缘政治不确定性的潜在脆弱性。随着这些趋势的持续，比特币和黄金是否会继续为投资者提供避风港，或者最终是否会屈服于更广泛的市场危机，还有待观察。