經濟動盪引發危機擔憂，比特幣和黃金飆升

在全球利率上升的情況下，比特幣和黃金飆升至歷史新高，可能反映出對金融危機的預期。公共債務水準升高（以英國最近的混亂為例）引發了人們對美國類似結果的擔憂。隨著償債成本上升，美元崩潰的威脅加劇，刺激了對比特幣和黃金等替代資產的需求。

Bitcoin and Gold Surge Amidst Global Economic Turmoil, Raising Concerns of a Crisis

全球經濟動盪期間比特幣和黃金飆升，引發危機擔憂

Washington, D.C. - Amidst a backdrop of heightened interest rates, the prices of Bitcoin and gold have surged to record highs, signaling potential concerns over a looming financial crisis.

華盛頓特區 - 在利率上升的背景下，比特幣和黃金的價格飆升至歷史新高，表明人們對迫在眉睫的金融危機的潛在擔憂。

The recent economic turmoil experienced by the United Kingdom serves as a cautionary tale. In 2022, the government's imprudent fiscal policies, including substantial tax cuts and increased spending, triggered a market meltdown. The British pound plummeted to historic lows against the US dollar, while the government of Prime Minister Liz Truss collapsed in record time.

英國最近經歷的經濟動盪是一個警示。 2022年，政府不審慎的財政政策，包括大幅減稅和增加支出，引發了市場崩盤。英鎊兌美元匯率暴跌至歷史低點，而首相利茲·特拉斯的政府也在創紀錄的時間內垮台。

The United States now faces similar risks if it continues to overlook its mounting federal debt, warns Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). "The danger is what the United Kingdom faced under former Prime Minister Truss, where policymakers tried to take action, and then there was a market reaction to that action," Swagel said in an interview with the Financial Times.

國會預算辦公室 (CBO) 主任菲利普·斯瓦格爾警告說，如果美國繼續忽視不斷增加的聯邦債務，美國現在也將面臨類似的風險。斯瓦格爾在接受《金融時報》採訪時表示：“危險在於英國前首相特拉斯領導下所面臨的情況，政策制定者試圖採取行動，然後市場對此行動做出反應。”

While the US is not currently in the same dire situation as the UK, Swagel emphasizes that rising interest rates could increase the cost of servicing the debt to $1 trillion within two years, potentially leading to a pullback in bond markets.

儘管美國目前的處境並不像英國那麼嚴峻，但斯瓦格爾強調，利率上升可能會使兩年內償債成本增加至 1 兆美元，可能導致債券市場回落。

A collapse of the US dollar, a critical component of the global financial system, could fuel demand for safe-haven assets such as Bitcoin and gold. During the UK crisis in September 2022, trading volumes in Bitcoin-pound pairs skyrocketed.

作為全球金融體系重要組成部分的美元崩潰可能會刺激對比特幣和黃金等避險資產的需求。 2022 年 9 月英國危機期間，比特幣-英鎊貨幣對的交易量飆升。

Despite elevated interest rates and bond yields worldwide, both Bitcoin and gold have reached new record highs, with Bitcoin surpassing $70,000 and gold exceeding $2,000 per ounce. These gains have outpaced their previous peaks from 2020-21, when interest rates were near or below zero.

儘管全球利率和債券收益率不斷上升，但比特幣和黃金均創下新高，其中比特幣突破 70,000 美元，黃金突破 2,000 美元/盎司。這些漲幅超過了 2020-21 年利率接近或低於零的先前高峰。

"Rising debt levels and geopolitical turmoil may have contributed to offsetting the impact of higher yields on both assets," noted Kaiko, a Paris-based crypto data provider, in its weekly newsletter.

總部位於巴黎的加密數據提供商 Kaiko 在其每週通訊中指出，“不斷上升的債務水平和地緣政治動盪可能有助於抵消收益率上升對這兩種資產的影響。”

As of the end of 2023, the US federal debt had already reached $26.2 trillion, approximately 97% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), according to the CBO. The non-partisan agency projects that the debt-to-GDP ratio will surpass the record set during World War II (116%) by 2029, potentially reaching a staggering 166% by 2054.

根據國會預算辦公室的數據，截至 2023 年底，美國聯邦債務已達到 26.2 兆美元，約占美國國內生產毛額 (GDP) 的 97%。該無黨派機構預計，到 2029 年，債務與 GDP 的比率將超過二戰期間創下的紀錄（116%），到 2054 年可能達到驚人的 166%。

The higher the debt, the more pressure there is to maintain artificially low real interest rates (adjusted for inflation) and bond yields. However, higher rates and debt levels exacerbate government interest spending, further fueling debt concerns.

債務越高，人為維持低實際利率（根據通貨膨脹調整）和債券收益率的壓力就越大。然而，較高的利率和債務水準加劇了政府利息支出，進一步加劇了債務擔憂。

Negative real rates often prompt investors to shift their funds from fixed-income investments to higher-risk assets with potentially higher returns, such as technology stocks, cryptocurrencies, and safe havens like gold. This trend was evident in 2020-21.

負實際利率通常會促使投資者將資金從固定收益投資轉向具有潛在更高回報的高風險資產，例如科技股、加密貨幣和黃金等避險資產。這一趨勢在 2020-21 年尤為明顯。

"In a highly indebted economy, negative real rates and financial repression are a necessary condition to keep the system running, and the devaluation of fiat currency remains the escape valve," explained the founders of the LondonCryptoClub newsletter service. They view concerns about debt as a macroeconomic catalyst for both Bitcoin and gold.

倫敦加密俱樂部時事通訊服務的創始人解釋說：“在負債累累的經濟體中，負實際利率和金融抑制是維持系統運作的必要條件，而法定貨幣貶值仍然是安全閥。”他們將對債務的擔憂視為比特幣和黃金的宏觀經濟催化劑。

According to the founders, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent decision to maintain forecasts of three rate cuts in the coming months, despite ongoing labor market strength and rising inflation, suggests that the central bank is now "focused on the US debt spiral."

創辦人表示，儘管勞動市場持續走強且通膨不斷上升，聯準會主席鮑威爾最近仍決定維持未來幾個月三次降息的預測，這表明聯準會現在「專注於美國債務螺旋式上升」。

"Gold continues to signal that the macro sands are shifting. If net flows into ETFs turn positive this week, don't be surprised if Bitcoin captures the macro tailwinds and accelerates to new highs," the founders concluded.

「黃金繼續表明宏觀形勢正在發生變化。如果本週 ETF 的淨流入轉為正值，那麼如果比特幣抓住宏觀順風並加速創出新高，也不要感到驚訝，」創始人總結道。

The surge in Bitcoin and gold prices serves as a reminder of the potential vulnerability of the global financial system to rising debt and geopolitical uncertainty. As these trends continue, it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin and gold will continue to provide a safe haven for investors or if they will ultimately succumb to a broader market crisis.

比特幣和黃金價格的飆升提醒人們，全球金融體系對債務上升和地緣政治不確定性的潛在脆弱性。隨著這些趨勢的持續，比特幣和黃金是否會繼續為投資者提供避風港，或者最終是否會屈服於更廣泛的市場危機，還有待觀察。