比特币已经淡出公众意识

比特币已经从公众意识中淡出，以至于连媒体都忘记了比特币的价格会像溜溜球一样上下波动，无论出于何种原因。

Bitcoin has fallen out of the public consciousness to such a degree that even the press have forgotten that the BTC price goes up and down like a yoyo for any reason or none.

比特币已经从公众意识中淡出，以至于连媒体都忘记了比特币的价格会像溜溜球一样上下波动，无论出于何种原因。

So I’m getting questions I’ve answered before, which means it’s time to make them into a post.

所以我收到了以前回答过的问题，这意味着是时候将它们写成帖子了。

Donald Trump is talking about bitcoin and crypto a lot of late. You’d almost think he was short of ready cash. Zeke Faux and Muyao Shen have a great article on Chase Herro (a.k.a. Chase Hero), the guy actually running Trump’s crypto company, World Liberty Financial.

唐纳德·特朗普最近经常谈论比特币和加密货币。你几乎会认为他缺少现金。 Zeke Faux 和 Muyao Shen 发表了一篇关于 Chase Herro（又名 Chase Hero）的精彩文章，他实际上经营着特朗普的加密货币公司 World Liberty Financial。

Herro has gone down in the world from selling colon cleanses. [Bloomberg, archive]

赫罗因销售结肠清洁剂而名声大噪。 [彭博社，档案]

And yesterday Trump bought “crypto burgers” for supporters at a bitcoin-themed bar in New York — though he paid in dollars, not in crypto. [USA Today]

昨天，特朗普在纽约一家比特币主题酒吧为支持者购买了“加密汉堡”——尽管他用的是美元，而不是加密货币。 [今日美国]

So is this why number went up?

这就是数字上升的原因吗？

No. You don’t need to invoke a Trump speech at Bitcoin 2024, debate performance or buying hamburgers as explanations. Going up or down $5,000 in a day is par for the course in bitcoin.

不，你不需要援引特朗普在比特币 2024 上的演讲、辩论表现或购买汉堡作为解释。一天内上涨或下跌 5,000 美元是比特币的常态。

Cryptocurrency markets just don’t react to what would normally be considered a market signal in the same way as markets in well-regulated high-volume securities or commodities.

加密货币市场只是不会像监管良好的大批量证券或大宗商品市场那样对通常被视为市场信号的信号做出反应。

These are small, thinly-traded and ill-regulated commodity markets. This means that internal manipulations absolutely swamp broader macro signals.

这些商品市场规模小、交易稀少且监管不善。这意味着内部操纵绝对会淹没更广泛的宏观信号。

Here’s a nice study from the New York Federal Reserve. “The key result is that, unlike other U.S. asset classes, Bitcoin is orthogonal to monetary and macroeconomic news.” [New York Fed, PDF]

这是纽约联储的一项很好的研究。 “关键结果是，与其他美国资产类别不同，比特币与货币和宏观经济新闻正交。” [纽约联储，PDF]

Binance is where the price of bitcoin is set

币安是比特币价格的设定地

The bitcoin price is set by trading, and that’s overwhelmingly trading against the unregulated Tether and FDUSD stablecoins on Binance.

比特币价格是通过交易决定的，而且绝大多数是与币安上不受监管的 Tether 和 FDUSD 稳定币进行交易。

The volumes of just the BTC/USDT and BTC/FDUSD trading pairs on that one exchange swamp all other trading in bitcoins. Coinbase or regulated ETFs aren’t even in the running.

仅该交易所的 BTC/USDT 和 BTC/FDUSD 交易对的交易量就淹没了所有其他比特币交易。 Coinbase 或受监管的 ETF 甚至都没有参与其中。

Binance is under severe US compliance monitoring with regard to money laundering compliance and keeping US entities off the exchange — but the trading floor remains completely unregulated.

币安在洗钱合规方面受到美国严格的合规监控，并禁止美国实体进入交易所，但交易大厅仍然完全不受监管。

Every market abuse you can think of — wash trading, manipulation, the exchange trading against its own customers — is standard. And probably not even illegal!

你能想到的每一种市场滥用行为——清洗交易、操纵、针对自己客户的交易所交易——都是标准的。而且可能甚至不违法！

The Tether and FDUSD stablecoins’ backing is also extremely dubious. Tether admits that a large part of their backing is loans of USDT, where they create USDT out of thin air then claim the loan itself is the reserve asset backing those USDT. And I flatly don’t believe FDUSD is meaningfully backed by actual dollars.

Tether 和 FDUSD 稳定币的支持也非常可疑。 Tether 承认，他们的很大一部分支持是 USDT 贷款，他们凭空创造 USDT，然后声称贷款本身就是支持这些 USDT 的储备资产。我断然不相信 FDUSD 得到实际美元的有意义支持。

Amy Castor and I wrote about all this earlier this year, here and here. Nothing has changed through 2024.

艾米·卡斯特和我在今年早些时候写过这一切，在这里和这里。到 2024 年，一切都没有改变。

Bitcoin does not react to macro signals — only to internal market shenanigans

比特币不会对宏观信号做出反应，只会对内部市场的恶作剧做出反应

Could there be an outside signal that affected the price of bitcoin?

是否存在影响比特币价格的外部信号？

Sure. Some drastic regulatory or criminal action that changes the shape of the market — say, busting Tether or Justin Sun. That’d probably do things.

当然。一些严厉的监管或犯罪行动改变了市场的形态——比如，破坏了 Tether 或孙宇晨。那可能会有所作为。

Short of that, I expect the present nonsense to continue — the public won’t care, the number will go up and down and journalists will occasionally notice the number and wonder if there’s a story there. But there isn’t, really.

除此之外，我预计目前的胡言乱语还会继续下去——公众不会关心，这个数字会上下波动，记者偶尔会注意到这个数字，想知道里面是否有故事。但确实没有。