比特幣已經淡出大眾意識

比特幣已經從大眾意識中淡出，以至於連媒體都忘記了比特幣的價格會像溜溜球一樣上下波動，無論是何種原因。

Bitcoin has fallen out of the public consciousness to such a degree that even the press have forgotten that the BTC price goes up and down like a yoyo for any reason or none.

比特幣已經從大眾意識中淡出，以至於連媒體都忘記了比特幣的價格會像溜溜球一樣上下波動，無論是何種原因。

So I’m getting questions I’ve answered before, which means it’s time to make them into a post.

所以我收到了以前回答過的問題，這意味著是時候將它們寫成帖子了。

Donald Trump is talking about bitcoin and crypto a lot of late. You’d almost think he was short of ready cash. Zeke Faux and Muyao Shen have a great article on Chase Herro (a.k.a. Chase Hero), the guy actually running Trump’s crypto company, World Liberty Financial.

唐納德·川普最近經常談論比特幣和加密貨幣。你幾乎會認為他缺少現金。 Zeke Faux 和 Muyao Shen 發表了一篇關於 Chase Herro（又名 Chase Hero）的精彩文章，他實際上經營著川普的加密貨幣公司 World Liberty Financial。

Herro has gone down in the world from selling colon cleanses. [Bloomberg, archive]

赫羅因銷售結腸清潔劑而聞名。 [彭博社，檔案]

And yesterday Trump bought “crypto burgers” for supporters at a bitcoin-themed bar in New York — though he paid in dollars, not in crypto. [USA Today]

昨天，川普在紐約一家比特幣主題酒吧為支持者購買了「加密漢堡」——儘管他用的是美元，而不是加密貨幣。 [今日美國]

So is this why number went up?

這就是數字上升的原因嗎？

No. You don’t need to invoke a Trump speech at Bitcoin 2024, debate performance or buying hamburgers as explanations. Going up or down $5,000 in a day is par for the course in bitcoin.

不，你不需要援引川普在比特幣 2024 上的演講、辯論表現或購買漢堡作為解釋。一天內上漲或下跌 5,000 美元是比特幣的常態。

Cryptocurrency markets just don’t react to what would normally be considered a market signal in the same way as markets in well-regulated high-volume securities or commodities.

加密貨幣市場只是不會像監管良好的大批量證券或大宗商品市場那樣對通常被視為市場訊號的訊號做出反應。

These are small, thinly-traded and ill-regulated commodity markets. This means that internal manipulations absolutely swamp broader macro signals.

這些商品市場規模小、交易稀少且監管不善。這意味著內部操縱絕對會淹沒更廣泛的宏觀訊號。

Here’s a nice study from the New York Federal Reserve. “The key result is that, unlike other U.S. asset classes, Bitcoin is orthogonal to monetary and macroeconomic news.” [New York Fed, PDF]

這是紐約聯邦儲備銀行的一項很好的研究。 “關鍵結果是，與其他美國資產類別不同，比特幣與貨幣和宏觀經濟新聞正交。” [紐約聯邦儲備銀行，PDF]

Binance is where the price of bitcoin is set

幣安是比特幣價格的設定地

The bitcoin price is set by trading, and that’s overwhelmingly trading against the unregulated Tether and FDUSD stablecoins on Binance.

比特幣價格是透過交易決定的，絕大多數是與幣安上不受監管的 Tether 和 FDUSD 穩定幣進行交易。

The volumes of just the BTC/USDT and BTC/FDUSD trading pairs on that one exchange swamp all other trading in bitcoins. Coinbase or regulated ETFs aren’t even in the running.

光是該交易所的 BTC/USDT 和 BTC/FDUSD 交易對的交易量就淹沒了所有其他比特幣交易。 Coinbase 或受監管的 ETF 甚至都沒有參與其中。

Binance is under severe US compliance monitoring with regard to money laundering compliance and keeping US entities off the exchange — but the trading floor remains completely unregulated.

幣安在洗錢合規方面受到美國嚴格的合規監控，並禁止美國實體進入交易所，但交易大廳仍完全不受監管。

Every market abuse you can think of — wash trading, manipulation, the exchange trading against its own customers — is standard. And probably not even illegal!

你能想到的每一種市場濫用行為——清洗交易、操縱、針對自己客戶的交易所交易——都是標準的。而且可能甚至不違法！

The Tether and FDUSD stablecoins’ backing is also extremely dubious. Tether admits that a large part of their backing is loans of USDT, where they create USDT out of thin air then claim the loan itself is the reserve asset backing those USDT. And I flatly don’t believe FDUSD is meaningfully backed by actual dollars.

Tether 和 FDUSD 穩定幣的支援也非常可疑。 Tether 承認，他們的很大一部分支持是 USDT 貸款，他們憑空創造 USDT，然後聲稱貸款本身就是支持這些 USDT 的儲備資產。我斷然不相信 FDUSD 得到實際美元的有意義支持。

Amy Castor and I wrote about all this earlier this year, here and here. Nothing has changed through 2024.

艾米·卡斯特和我在今年早些時候寫過這一切，在這裡和這裡。到 2024 年，一切都沒有改變。

Bitcoin does not react to macro signals — only to internal market shenanigans

比特幣不會對宏觀訊號做出反應，只會對內部市場的惡作劇做出反應

Could there be an outside signal that affected the price of bitcoin?

是否存在影響比特幣價格的外部訊號？

Sure. Some drastic regulatory or criminal action that changes the shape of the market — say, busting Tether or Justin Sun. That’d probably do things.

當然。一些嚴厲的監管或犯罪行動改變了市場的形式——例如，破壞了 Tether 或孫宇晨。那可能會有所作為。

Short of that, I expect the present nonsense to continue — the public won’t care, the number will go up and down and journalists will occasionally notice the number and wonder if there’s a story there. But there isn’t, really.

除此之外，我預計目前的胡言亂語還會繼續下去——公眾不會關心，這個數字會上下波動，記者偶爾會注意到這個數字，想知道裡面是否有故事。但確實沒有。