随着多个潜在湍流的闪光灯信号，比特币进入了波动率提高的阶段

尽管主要的加密货币最近触及了新的高点，但加密量的数据表明，市场可能接近关键的拐点而不是过热的峰值。

Bitcoin has entered a phase of heightened volatility as multiple on-chain metrics flash signals of potential turbulence. While the leading cryptocurrency recently touched new highs, data from CryptoQuant suggests that the market might be nearing a crucial inflection point rather than an overheated peak.

随着潜在湍流的多个链上闪光灯信号，比特币进入了增强波动率的阶段。尽管主要的加密货币最近触及了新的高点，但加密量的数据表明，市场可能接近关键的拐点而不是过热的峰值。

These metrics, including Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), and the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, indicate a shift in sentiment and market conditions.

这些指标，包括未实现的盈利/损失（NUPL），对实现价值（MVRV）比率，交换流量脉冲（IFP）和牛市市场周期指标的市场价值，表明情绪和市场状况的变化。

Do 4 Different Cyclical On-Chain Metrics Signal the End of Bitcoin’s Bull Market?

4个不同的周期性链指标是否表明比特币牛市的终结？

“All of these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is experiencing significant turbulence in the short to mid-term.

“所有这些指标都表明，在短期到中期，比特币正经历着明显的湍流。

However, none of them indicate that Bitcoin has reached an overheated or cycle-top. ”

但是，它们都没有表明比特币达到了过热或周期的顶端。透明

The NUPL indicator, which measures the proportion of market participants in profit, has been gradually declining from previous highs.

NUPL指标衡量了市场参与者在利润中的比例，它已从以前的高点逐渐下降。

Historically, a high NUPL value suggests euphoria and potential for a market top, while a sharp decline into negative territory signals market capitulation. Currently, the indicator hovers around 0.4, a zone that historically precedes market corrections but does not confirm an immediate downturn.

从历史上看，较高的NUPL价值表明欣快和潜力是市场顶部，而急剧下降到负领土的市场投降。目前，该指标徘徊在0.4左右，该区域历史上是在市场校正之前进行的，但不能立即确认立即衰退。

If NUPL fails to maintain its current level, it could indicate growing risk aversion among investors.

如果NUPL无法维持其当前水平，它可能表明投资者之间的风险规避不断增长。

MHRV Is Still in Neutral Levels

MHRV仍处于中立水平

The MVRV Ratio, which compares Bitcoin's market value to its realized value, has also shown signs of moderation.

将比特币的市场价值与已实现价值进行比较的MVRV比率也显示了节制的迹象。

Currently sitting at approximately 1.9, this metric is far from the euphoric levels seen in previous cycle tops above 3.5. This suggests that while Bitcoin may be experiencing local price peaks, it has not yet reached the extreme overvaluation levels that typically signal a final bull run climax.

目前，该指标目前约为1.9，远离以前周期中高于3.5的欣快水平。这表明，虽然比特币可能正在经历当地价格峰值，但尚未达到通常表明最终牛市高潮的极端高估水平。

Nonetheless, any further sharp rises in MHRV could indicate growing speculative excess and a potential correction.

尽管如此，MHRV的任何进一步急剧上升都可能表明投机性过剩和潜在的校正。

IFP & Cycle Indicators Signal Market Shift

IFP和周期指标信号市场转移

The IFP metric, which tracks the net flow of Bitcoin between exchanges, has also provided significant insights. Recent data shows an increase in exchange inflows, often associated with selling pressure.

在交换之间跟踪比特币净流的IFP度量也提供了重要的见解。最近的数据显示，交换流入的增加，通常与销售压力有关。

Periods of high IFP values have historically aligned with market corrections, as traders move assets onto exchanges to take profits. While IFP is not yet at extreme levels, continued increases could indicate an approaching sell-off phase, especially if large holders begin to offload their positions.

IFP值高的时期在历史上与市场校正保持一致，因为交易者将资产转移到交易所以获利。尽管IFP尚未处于极端水平，但持续增加可能表明即将出现的抛售阶段，尤其是如果大型持有人开始卸载其头寸。

The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which synthesizes various on-chain and market sentiment metrics, presents a more complex picture.

牛公牛市场周期指标综合了各种链上和市场情感指标，它提出了更复杂的情况。

While it has entered an early bullish phase, it has not yet reached the overheated territory seen in previous cycle tops. This suggests that Bitcoin remains in a bullish structure but is at risk of temporary corrections.

尽管它进入了早期的看涨阶段，但尚未达到以前周期顶部中看到的过热领土。这表明比特币仍处于看涨的结构中，但有暂时更正的风险。

Historically, past bull markets have shown prolonged periods of extreme bullishness before reaching a definitive peak, and current conditions suggest that Bitcoin is not yet at that stage.

从历史上看，过去的牛市在达到明确的高峰之前已经表现出了很长时间的极端看涨时期，而当前的条件表明比特币还没有处于那个阶段。

This current setup bears similarities to Bitcoin's past bull market transitions. In 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin experienced multiple short-term corrections before reaching its final peak.

当前的设置与比特币过去的牛市过渡相似。在2017年和2021年，比特币在达到最终高峰之前经历了多次短期校正。

However, unlike those cycles, the macroeconomic environment in 2024 is markedly different. Factors such as global liquidity tightening, regulatory developments, and institutional involvement in Bitcoin could play a critical role in shaping its next move.

但是，与这些周期不同，2024年的宏观经济环境明显不同。诸如全球流动性收紧，监管发展和机构参与比特币等因素可能在塑造其下一步行动中发挥关键作用。

Recent comparisons have been drawn to the carry trade crisis of August 2024, when macroeconomic pressures led to a temporary decline in Bitcoin's price despite strong fundamentals. If similar external pressures emerge, they could accelerate Bitcoin's next correction phase.

最近的比较与2024年8月的贸易危机进行了比较，当时宏观经济压力导致尽管基本面强劲，比特币的价格暂时下降。如果出现类似的外部压力，它们可以加速比特币的下一个校正阶段。