比特币和Ether（ETH）市场从2025年开始下降，这使投资者感到惊讶

在所有期望下，加密市场始于2025年下降，这使投资者感到惊讶。比特币和以太，通常表现强劲

Crypto prices started 2025 with a decline against all expectations, surprising investors. Bitcoin and Ether, usually strong performers in the first quarter, recorded their worst historical performances over this period. This sharp reversal, breaking from known seasonal dynamics, rekindles debates about a possible rebound in the second quarter, while economic uncertainties weigh on all risk assets.

加密价格始于2025年，所有预期的下降，令人惊讶的投资者。比特币和以太通常在第一季度表现出色，在此期间记录了他们最糟糕的历史表演。这种急剧的逆转从已知的季节性动态中断，重新激发了有关第二季度可能反弹的辩论，而经济不确定性则影响了所有风险资产。

A Contrary Start to the Year for Bitcoin and Ether

比特币和以太的一年相反

Bitcoin and Ether, the two main cryptos by market capitalization, fell by 11.82 % and 45.41 % respectively during the first quarter of 2025.

在2025年第一季度，比特币和Ether（按市值为市场资本化的两个主要加密货币）分别下降了11.82％和45.41％。

This decline contrasts with their historical performances during this period. Since 2013, the first quarter has represented on average the second-best quarter for Bitcoin (+51.2 %) and the best for Ether (+77.4 %), according to CoinGlass data.

这种下降与他们在此期间的历史表演形成对比。根据Coinglass数据，自2013年以来，第一季度平均代表了比特币（+51.2％）的第二季度，而Ether（+77.4％）的最佳代表。

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, did not mince words: “Frustrating. That’s the word that best describes the past quarter ”.

Bitwise的首席投资官Matt Hougan并没有讽刺地说：“令人沮丧。这就是最能描述上个季度的单词”。

He even referred to the period as the “best worst quarter in crypto history ”.

他甚至将该时期称为“加密历史上最糟糕的季度”。

According to the analysis published by Bitwise, several factors weighed on crypto performance in recent months:

根据Bitwise发表的分析，最近几个月对加密性能的几个因素：

Several signs of reversal are emerging for the second quarter

第二季度的逆转迹象正在出现

Despite this difficult start, several indicators could reverse the trend in the second quarter. Matt Hougan identifies four factors likely to fuel a recovery.

尽管开局艰难，但几个指标可能会在第二季度扭转趋势。马特·霍根（Matt Hougan）确定了四个可能助长恢复的因素。

First, the expansion of the global money supply, with central banks increasingly inclined to adopt flexible policies, could favor risky assets.

首先，全球货币供应的扩张，中央银行越来越倾向于采用灵活的政策，可能会有利于冒险的资产。

“Historically, these conditions have been favorable for cryptos ” he claims. This analysis is shared by Pav Hundal, Senior Analyst at Swyftx, who noted in February that “global stimulus measures are normally a reliable indicator for crypto ”.

他声称：“从历史上看，这些条件对加密货币有利。” Swyftx的高级分析师PAV Hundal共享了这一分析，他在2月指出，“全球刺激措施通常是加密货币的可靠指标”。

A second lever is identified on the regulatory front. Hougan refers to an ongoing “pro-crypto regulatory clarification” in the United States. Furthermore, he considers it an undervalued but promising turning point for the ecosystem.

在监管方面确定了第二个杠杆。霍根（Hougan）指的是美国正在进行的“亲克莱普托监管澄清”。此外，他认为这是生态系统被低估但有希望的转折点。

At the same time, the steady growth of stablecoins is another encouraging factor, as assets under management in this segment have reached a historic high. They surpassed 218 million dollars during the first quarter.

同时，稳定的稳定增长是另一个令人鼓舞的因素，因为该细分市场中管理的资产达到了历史性的高度。他们在第一季度超过了2.18亿美元。

This dynamism is seen as a catalyst for related sectors such as DeFi. Finally, investors’ tendency to reassess their portfolios amid current uncertainties could strengthen the appeal of cryptos.

这种动态被视为相关部门（例如Defi）的催化剂。最后，由于目前的不确定性，投资者倾向于重新评估其投资组合，这可能会增强加密货币的吸引力。

While Matt Hougan maintains his bold prediction of a bitcoin at $200,000 by the end of the year, he points out that the potential reversal “has not yet been triggered, but could occur quickly when sentiment shifts ”. For now, the second quarter appears to be a potential turning point, closely watched by analysts and investors, in a context increasingly influenced by complex macroeconomic and political dynamics.

尽管马特·霍根（Matt Hougan）在今年年底之前将他对比特币的大胆预测为20万美元，但他指出，潜在的逆转“尚未被触发，但可能会在情绪转移时迅速发生”。就目前而言，第二季度似乎是一个潜在的转折点，在分析师和投资者的密切关注的情况下，在越来越受复杂的宏观经济和政治动态影响的情况下。

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