比特币与美元霸权：在特朗普政府下，比特币能否与美元的主导地位共存？

尽管特朗普支持有利的加密货币举措，包括建立国家比特币储备的想法，但行业领导者对此类承诺的可行性仍持谨慎态度。

Despite Trump's support for crypto-friendly initiatives, such as the concept of a national Bitcoin reserve, industry leaders remain skeptical about the practicality of such promises.

尽管特朗普支持加密货币友好举措，例如国家比特币储备的概念，但行业领导者仍然对此类承诺的实用性持怀疑态度。

Bitcoin vs. Dollar Supremacy

比特币与美元霸权

According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, the U.S. government's stance on Bitcoin is closely linked to the country's dollar supremacy. He explains that Bitcoin, which is often referred to as “digital gold,” tends to perform well during periods of economic distress. For decades, the price of gold would increase whenever there was a perceived threat to the U.S. economy. However, in recent times, Bitcoin has been touted as a hedge against both inflation and financial collapse.

CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju表示，美国政府对比特币的立场与该国的美元霸权密切相关。他解释说，比特币通常被称为“数字黄金”，在经济困难时期往往表现良好。几十年来，只要美国经济受到明显威胁，金价就会上涨。然而，近年来，比特币被吹捧为对抗通货膨胀和金融崩溃的对冲工具。

Source:X

来源：X

However, Ju notes that as long as the U.S. dollar continues to be a global safe-haven asset, Bitcoin's potential use as a strategic reserve asset will remain limited.

然而，Ju指出，只要美元仍然是全球避险资产，比特币作为战略储备资产的潜在用途将仍然有限。

He adds: “In emerging markets where local currencies are rapidly losing value, people still prefer U.S. dollars over Bitcoin or gold.”

他补充道：“在当地货币迅速贬值的新兴市场，人们仍然更喜欢美元而不是比特币或黄金。”

The Political Discourse Behind Pro-Bitcoin Policies

支持比特币政策背后的政治话语

Trump's campaign included promises to adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve as a way to modernize U.S. monetary policy. But analysts like Ju believe that these promises may be more about politics than genuine conviction.

特朗普的竞选活动包括承诺采用比特币作为战略储备，作为实现美国货币政策现代化的一种方式。但朱等分析人士认为，这些承诺可能更多是出于政治目的，而不是真正的信念。

After all, Trump's rhetoric seemed to place a strong emphasis on U.S. economic dominance, which could potentially clash with the promotion of a decentralized asset that is widely seen as threatening the dollar's primacy.

毕竟，特朗普的言论似乎非常强调美国的经济主导地位，这可能会与人们普遍认为威胁美元霸主地位的去中心化资产的推广发生冲突。

Ju believes that it would be easier for Trump to change his mind and ultimately reverse his pro-Bitcoin agenda if it were to pose a threat to U.S. leverage. “If the administration decides to prioritize shoring up dollar dominance, then we may see Bitcoin-friendly policies taking a backseat.”

Ju认为，如果特朗普对美国的影响力构成威胁，那么特朗普会更容易改变主意并最终扭转他支持比特币的议程。 “如果政府决定优先考虑巩固美元主导地位，那么我们可能会看到对比特币友好的政策退居次要地位。”

Stablecoins: Expanding Dollar Dominance

稳定币：扩大美元主导地位

While Bitcoin may encounter resistance, dollar-pegged stablecoins are becoming increasingly prominent as a bridge between traditional finance and blockchain technology. Recently, Paxos CEO Charles Cascarilla highlighted the role of stablecoins in maintaining the usefulness of the U.S. dollar. At a global conference, Cascarilla stated, “Stablecoins essentially bring the speed and connectivity of the internet to fiat currencies, making them indispensable in the blockchain economy.”

虽然比特币可能会遇到阻力，但与美元挂钩的稳定币作为传统金融和区块链技术之间的桥梁正变得越来越重要。最近，Paxos 首席执行官 Charles Cascarilla 强调了稳定币在维持美元有用性方面的作用。卡斯卡里拉在一次全球会议上表示，“稳定币本质上为法定货币带来了互联网的速度和连接性，使它们在区块链经济中不可或缺。”

The Dollar Strength Index (DXY) showcases the steady rise of the U.S. dollar since October 2024. Source:TradingView

美元强弱指数（DXY）展示了自2024年10月以来美元的稳步上涨。来源：TradingView

Stablecoins are especially in demand in countries that are experiencing hyperinflation, such as Turkey, where the inflation rate for the lira reached 67% in March 2024. According to Chainalysis, over half of the digital assets traded in Latin America were stablecoins, reflecting the increasing participation in global financial ecosystems.

稳定币在经历恶性通货膨胀的国家尤其受欢迎，例如土耳其，2024 年 3 月里拉的通货膨胀率达到 67%。根据 Chainaanalysis，拉丁美洲交易的数字资产中有一半以上是稳定币，这反映出稳定币的增长。参与全球金融生态系统。

Uncertain Prospects for Bitcoin Policies

比特币政策前景不确定

Although Trump's pro-Bitcoin statements have resonated with crypto proponents, experts caution against excessive optimism. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, noted that while the U.S. government may explore reserve strategies related to Bitcoin, it is unlikely to engage in large-scale acquisitions.

尽管特朗普支持比特币的声明引起了加密货币支持者的共鸣，但专家警告不要过度乐观。 Galaxy Digital研究主管Alex Thorn指出，虽然美国政府可能会探索与比特币相关的储备策略，但不太可能进行大规模收购。

Ju concludes that unless the U.S. perceives a critical threat to its economic dominance, Bitcoin will likely remain on the periphery of national monetary policy. “Trump's bold statements at the National Bitcoin Conference might be better understood as a political maneuver rather than a definitive policy direction,” he observes.

Ju 的结论是，除非美国意识到其经济主导地位受到严重威胁，否则比特币可能仍处于国家货币政策的边缘。 “特朗普在全国比特币会议上的大胆声明可能更好地理解为一种政治策略，而不是明确的政策方向，”他评论道。

As the world continues to witness the interplay between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar, the question remains: Can Bitcoin coexist with—or challenge—the dollar's supremacy under Trump's administration? For now, the answer is closely tied to the evolving dynamics of global finance.

随着世界继续见证比特币和美元之间的相互作用，问题仍然存在：比特币能否与特朗普政府领导下的美元霸主地位共存或挑战？目前，答案与全球金融的动态变化密切相关。