比特幣與美元霸權：在川普政府下，比特幣能否與美元的主導地位共存？

儘管川普支持有利的加密貨幣舉措，包括建立國家比特幣儲備的想法，但產業領導者對此類承諾的可行性仍持謹慎態度。

Despite Trump's support for crypto-friendly initiatives, such as the concept of a national Bitcoin reserve, industry leaders remain skeptical about the practicality of such promises.

儘管川普支持加密貨幣友善舉措，例如國家比特幣儲備的概念，但行業領導者仍然對此類承諾的實用性持懷疑態度。

Bitcoin vs. Dollar Supremacy

比特幣與美元霸權

According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, the U.S. government's stance on Bitcoin is closely linked to the country's dollar supremacy. He explains that Bitcoin, which is often referred to as “digital gold,” tends to perform well during periods of economic distress. For decades, the price of gold would increase whenever there was a perceived threat to the U.S. economy. However, in recent times, Bitcoin has been touted as a hedge against both inflation and financial collapse.

CryptoQuant執行長Ki Young Ju表示，美國政府對比特幣的立場與該國的美元霸權密切相關。他解釋說，比特幣通常被稱為“數位黃金”，在經濟困難時期往往表現良好。幾十年來，只要美國經濟受到明顯威脅，金價就會上漲。然而，近年來，比特幣被吹捧為對抗通貨膨脹和金融崩潰的對沖工具。

Source:X

來源：X

However, Ju notes that as long as the U.S. dollar continues to be a global safe-haven asset, Bitcoin's potential use as a strategic reserve asset will remain limited.

然而，Ju指出，只要美元仍然是全球避險資產，比特幣作為戰略儲備資產的潛在用途將仍然有限。

He adds: “In emerging markets where local currencies are rapidly losing value, people still prefer U.S. dollars over Bitcoin or gold.”

他補充說：“在當地貨幣迅速貶值的新興市場，人們仍然更喜歡美元而不是比特幣或黃金。”

The Political Discourse Behind Pro-Bitcoin Policies

支持比特幣政策背後的政治話語

Trump's campaign included promises to adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve as a way to modernize U.S. monetary policy. But analysts like Ju believe that these promises may be more about politics than genuine conviction.

川普的競選活動包括承諾採用比特幣作為戰略儲備，作為實現美國貨幣政策現代化的一種方式。但朱等分析家認為，這些承諾可能更多是出於政治目的，而不是真正的信念。

After all, Trump's rhetoric seemed to place a strong emphasis on U.S. economic dominance, which could potentially clash with the promotion of a decentralized asset that is widely seen as threatening the dollar's primacy.

畢竟，川普的言論似乎非常強調美國的經濟主導地位，這可能會與人們普遍認為威脅美元霸主地位的去中心化資產的推廣發生衝突。

Ju believes that it would be easier for Trump to change his mind and ultimately reverse his pro-Bitcoin agenda if it were to pose a threat to U.S. leverage. “If the administration decides to prioritize shoring up dollar dominance, then we may see Bitcoin-friendly policies taking a backseat.”

Ju認為，如果川普對美國的影響力構成威脅，那麼川普會更容易改變主意並最終扭轉他支持比特幣的議程。 “如果政府決定優先考慮鞏固美元主導地位，那麼我們可能會看到對比特幣友好的政策退居次要地位。”

Stablecoins: Expanding Dollar Dominance

穩定幣：擴大美元主導地位

While Bitcoin may encounter resistance, dollar-pegged stablecoins are becoming increasingly prominent as a bridge between traditional finance and blockchain technology. Recently, Paxos CEO Charles Cascarilla highlighted the role of stablecoins in maintaining the usefulness of the U.S. dollar. At a global conference, Cascarilla stated, “Stablecoins essentially bring the speed and connectivity of the internet to fiat currencies, making them indispensable in the blockchain economy.”

雖然比特幣可能會遇到阻力，但與美元掛鉤的穩定幣作為傳統金融和區塊鏈技術之間的橋樑變得越來越重要。最近，Paxos 執行長 Charles Cascarilla 強調了穩定幣在維持美元有用性方面的作用。卡斯卡里拉在全球會議上表示，“穩定幣本質上為法定貨幣帶來了互聯網的速度和連接性，使它們在區塊鏈經濟中不可或缺。”

The Dollar Strength Index (DXY) showcases the steady rise of the U.S. dollar since October 2024. Source:TradingView

美元強弱指數（DXY）展示了自2024年10月以來美元的穩定上漲。

Stablecoins are especially in demand in countries that are experiencing hyperinflation, such as Turkey, where the inflation rate for the lira reached 67% in March 2024. According to Chainalysis, over half of the digital assets traded in Latin America were stablecoins, reflecting the increasing participation in global financial ecosystems.

穩定幣在經歷惡性通貨膨脹的國家尤其受歡迎，例如土耳其，2024 年3 月里拉的通貨膨脹率達到67%。幣的成長。

Uncertain Prospects for Bitcoin Policies

比特幣政策前景不確定

Although Trump's pro-Bitcoin statements have resonated with crypto proponents, experts caution against excessive optimism. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, noted that while the U.S. government may explore reserve strategies related to Bitcoin, it is unlikely to engage in large-scale acquisitions.

儘管川普支持比特幣的聲明引起了加密貨幣支持者的共鳴，但專家警告不要過度樂觀。 Galaxy Digital研究主管Alex Thorn指出，雖然美國政府可能會探索與比特幣相關的儲備策略，但不太可能進行大規模收購。

Ju concludes that unless the U.S. perceives a critical threat to its economic dominance, Bitcoin will likely remain on the periphery of national monetary policy. “Trump's bold statements at the National Bitcoin Conference might be better understood as a political maneuver rather than a definitive policy direction,” he observes.

Ju 的結論是，除非美國意識到其經濟主導地位受到嚴重威脅，否則比特幣可能仍處於國家貨幣政策的邊緣。 「川普在全國比特幣會議上的大膽聲明可能更好地理解為一種政治策略，而不是明確的政策方向，」他評論道。

As the world continues to witness the interplay between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar, the question remains: Can Bitcoin coexist with—or challenge—the dollar's supremacy under Trump's administration? For now, the answer is closely tied to the evolving dynamics of global finance.

隨著世界繼續見證比特幣和美元之間的相互作用，問題仍然存在：比特幣能否與川普政府領導下的美元霸主地位共存或挑戰？目前，答案與全球金融的動態變化密切相關。