进入 2025 年，比特币、美元和全球债券可能面临重大定位风险

摩根大通利用其跨资产头寸监控器，强调了市场适应不断变化的流动性和需求动态时潜在的脆弱性。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) , the U.S. dollar, and global bonds are among the asset classes that could face significant positioning risks heading into 2025, JPMorgan analysts said in a note Friday.

摩根大通分析师周五在一份报告中表示，比特币 (CRYPTO:BTC)、美元和全球债券等资产类别在 2025 年可能面临重大定位风险。

Using their Cross Asset Positioning Monitor, JPMorgan highlighted potential vulnerabilities as markets adjust to shifting liquidity and demand dynamics.

摩根大通利用其跨资产头寸监控工具，强调了市场适应不断变化的流动性和需求动态时潜在的脆弱性。

Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar are flagged for positioning risks. The bank said it sees "elevated equity positions, modestly long duration positions, close to neutral credit positions, elevated long dollar positions, underweight positioning in commodities ex gold, elevated positions in bitcoin but more modest longs in gold."

比特币和美元被标记为定位风险。该银行表示，它认为“股票头寸有所增加，久期头寸适度，信贷头寸接近中性，美元多头头寸增加，黄金以外的大宗商品头寸减持，比特币头寸增加，但黄金多头头寸较为温和。”

"Thus from a positioning point of view the most vulnerable asset classes into 2025 are equities, the dollar and bitcoin and the least vulnerable are non-gold commodities," the bank added.

该银行补充道：“因此，从定位的角度来看，到 2025 年最脆弱的资产类别是股票、美元和比特币，最不脆弱的是非黄金大宗商品。”

On bonds, the global supply-demand balance is expected to deteriorate in 2025.

债券方面，预计 2025 年全球供需平衡将恶化。

JPMorgan projects a $0.9 trillion decline in global bond demand compared to 2024, alongside a relatively modest $100 billion reduction in net supply.

摩根大通预计，与 2024 年相比，全球债券需求将减少 9 万亿美元，同时净供应量将相对温和地减少 1000 亿美元。

They explained that this imbalance could result in upward pressure on yields, with the Global Aggregate Bond Index yield potentially rising by 40 basis points.

他们解释说，这种失衡可能会导致收益率上行压力，全球综合债券指数收益率可能上涨 40 个基点。

Central banks will play a key role in these dynamics. While the Federal Reserve is expected to end balance sheet contraction in early 2024, it will continue shifting from mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to Treasury bills, JPMorgan noted.

央行将在这些动态中发挥关键作用。摩根大通指出，虽然美联储预计将在 2024 年初结束资产负债表收缩，但它将继续从抵押贷款支持证券 (MBS) 转向国库券。

They added that the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to fully stop reinvestments in its PEPP portfolio, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to accelerate net bond sales in 2025.

他们补充说，欧洲央行 (ECB) 将全面停止对其 PEPP 投资组合的再投资，日本央行 (BoJ) 可能会在 2025 年加速净债券销售。

Together, these actions contribute to modest improvements in central bank bond demand, but not enough to offset the broader decline in global demand, according to JPMorgan.

摩根大通表示，这些行动共同有助于央行债券需求的适度改善，但不足以抵消全球需求更广泛的下降。