進入 2025 年，比特幣、美元和全球債券可能面臨重大定位風險

摩根大通利用其跨資產部位監控器，強調了市場適應不斷變化的流動性和需求動態時潛在的脆弱性。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) , the U.S. dollar, and global bonds are among the asset classes that could face significant positioning risks heading into 2025, JPMorgan analysts said in a note Friday.

摩根大通分析師週五在一份報告中表示，比特幣 (CRYPTO:BTC)、美元和全球債券等資產類別在 2025 年可能面臨重大定位風險。

Using their Cross Asset Positioning Monitor, JPMorgan highlighted potential vulnerabilities as markets adjust to shifting liquidity and demand dynamics.

摩根大通利用其跨資產部位監控工具，強調了市場適應不斷變化的流動性和需求動態時潛在的脆弱性。

Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar are flagged for positioning risks. The bank said it sees "elevated equity positions, modestly long duration positions, close to neutral credit positions, elevated long dollar positions, underweight positioning in commodities ex gold, elevated positions in bitcoin but more modest longs in gold."

比特幣和美元被標記為定位風險。該銀行表示，它認為「股票部位有所增加，久期頭寸適度，信貸頭寸接近中性，美元多頭頭寸增加，黃金以外的大宗商品頭寸減持，比特幣頭寸增加，但黃金多頭頭寸較為溫和。 」

"Thus from a positioning point of view the most vulnerable asset classes into 2025 are equities, the dollar and bitcoin and the least vulnerable are non-gold commodities," the bank added.

該銀行補充說：“因此，從定位的角度來看，到 2025 年最脆弱的資產類別是股票、美元和比特幣，最不脆弱的是非黃金大宗商品。”

On bonds, the global supply-demand balance is expected to deteriorate in 2025.

債券方面，預計 2025 年全球供需平衡將惡化。

JPMorgan projects a $0.9 trillion decline in global bond demand compared to 2024, alongside a relatively modest $100 billion reduction in net supply.

摩根大通預計，與 2024 年相比，全球債券需求將減少 9 兆美元，同時淨供應量將相對溫和地減少 1,000 億美元。

They explained that this imbalance could result in upward pressure on yields, with the Global Aggregate Bond Index yield potentially rising by 40 basis points.

他們解釋說，這種失衡可能會導致殖利率上行壓力，全球綜合債券指數殖利率可能會上漲 40 個基點。

Central banks will play a key role in these dynamics. While the Federal Reserve is expected to end balance sheet contraction in early 2024, it will continue shifting from mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to Treasury bills, JPMorgan noted.

央行將在這些動態中發揮關鍵作用。摩根大通指出，雖然聯準會預計將在 2024 年初結束資產負債表收縮，但它將繼續從抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS) 轉向國庫券。

They added that the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to fully stop reinvestments in its PEPP portfolio, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to accelerate net bond sales in 2025.

他們補充說，歐洲央行 (ECB) 將全面停止對其 PEPP 投資組合的再投資，日本央行 (BoJ) 可能會在 2025 年加速淨債券銷售。

Together, these actions contribute to modest improvements in central bank bond demand, but not enough to offset the broader decline in global demand, according to JPMorgan.

摩根大通表示，這些行動共同有助於央行債券需求的適度改善，但不足以抵消全球需求更廣泛的下降。