比特币的交易不是基于基本面，而是基于供需

前一点是在最近的一篇专栏中提出的，旨在解释最著名的加密概念的飙升价值。

Bitcoin investors are expecting the U.S. Securities And Exchange Commission (SEC) to issue a decision soon on whether to grant Bitcoin "exchange-traded fund" (ETF) approval, which would allow people to invest in Bitcoin without having to buy it on a crypto exchange like Coinbase or Binance.

比特币投资者期待美国证券交易委员会（SEC）很快就是否批准比特币“交易所交易基金”（ETF）做出决定，这将允许人们投资比特币，而无需通过加密货币购买像 Coinbase 或 Binance 这样的交易所。

The price of Bitcoin has risen in anticipation of such approval. But why is the price of the most prominent cryptocurrency rising so much? According to one popular explanation, it's because the coin doesn't trade on fundamentals, but instead on supply and demand.

由于预期这种批准，比特币的价格已经上涨。但为什么最著名的加密货币的价格上涨如此之多？根据一种流行的解释，这是因为代币的交易不是基于基本面，而是基于供需。

One investor who's made millions on bitcoin was recently asked by a journalist why he put money into it, and his response was that “It’s the only commodity in history that doesn’t have a supply response to rising prices.”

一位通过比特币赚了数百万美元的投资者最近被记者问到为什么要投资比特币，他的回答是“这是历史上唯一一种对价格上涨没有供应反应的商品。”

But as Giedre Valaviciute points out in a recent column, this explanation doesn't square with the coin's price history, which has seen plenty of bear markets.

但正如 Giedre Valaviciute 在最近的一篇专栏中指出的那样，这种解释与该货币的价格历史并不相符，该货币经历了很多熊市。

If a limited supply is really what makes bitcoin such a great investment, then why all the stretches when the price of the coin was in decline?

如果有限的供应确实使比特币成为一项伟大的投资，那么为什么当比特币的价格下跌时却会出现如此大的波动呢？

“Bitcoin doesn't trade on fundamentals. It trades on supply and demand. Period. Full stop. Don't overcomplicate it,” Valaviciute writes, summarizing the perspective of bitcoin investors.

“比特币并不根据基本面进行交易。它根据供给和需求进行交易。时期。句号。不要把事情搞得太复杂”，Valaviciute 总结了比特币投资者的观点。

But if bitcoin doesn't trade on fundamentals, then what are those who own the coins speculating on?

但如果比特币的交易不符合基本面，那么那些拥有比特币的人又在进行什么投机呢？

There's nothing more to it than a speculation, which is all that bitcoin investors own. What do they think they own, exactly?

这只不过是一种投机，而这就是比特币投资者所拥有的一切。他们认为自己到底拥有什么？

Some will no doubt repeat once again that they own something that is finite in supply, and that the limit in supply means they own something that can only go up.

毫无疑问，有些人会再次重申，他们所拥有的东西的供应量是有限的，而供应量的限制意味着他们所拥有的东西只会上涨。

Ok, but if so, what do they really own? Think about it.

好吧，但如果是这样，他们真正拥有什么？想一想。

And in thinking about it, it should be said with certitude that those who feel fortunate enough to own bitcoin (and surely many feel this way) don't really own money or a coin.

考虑到这一点，应该肯定地说，那些觉得自己足够幸运拥有比特币的人（当然很多人都有这种感觉）并不真正拥有金钱或硬币。

Money's worth is in what it can buy, but bitcoin owners logically wouldn't use it to buy things.

金钱的价值在于它能买到什么，但比特币所有者从逻辑上讲不会用它来买东西。

Evidence supporting the above claim can be found in the stated belief by bitcoin owners and commentators that the so-called coin doesn't trade on fundamentals, but instead supply and demand such that it can only become more valuable.

支持上述说法的证据可以在比特币所有者和评论员的声明中找到，即所谓的硬币并不根据基本面进行交易，而是根据供求关系进行交易，从而使其变得更有价值。

But if the value of the coin is only going up, then it's not money. Really, who would buy with a monetary medium that, once exchanged for fiat money, market goods or both, will soon enough be worth much more than it was when used to make the purchase of fiat money, market goods, or both?

但如果硬币的价值只是上涨，那么它就不是钱。确实，谁会使用一种货币媒介进行购买，这种货币媒介一旦兑换成法定货币、市场商品或两者，很快就会比用于购买法定货币、市场商品或两者时的价值高得多？

To which some might say that demand for that which is finite won't always remain constant such that there will be bitcoin bear markets too.

有些人可能会说，对有限事物的需求不会总是保持不变，因此也会出现比特币熊市。

Ok, but isn't the point of bitcoin that it doesn't trade on fundamentals, but instead supply and demand?

好吧，但是比特币的重点不就是它不根据基本面进行交易，而是根据供需进行交易吗？

Based on that, what are the “non-fundamentals” that would cause bitcoin to decline in value?

那么，哪些“非基本面”会导致比特币贬值呢？

And if a coin that doesn't trade on fundamentals is in decline, who might exchange money, market goods or both for that which is in slow or rapid decline?

如果一种不根据基本面进行交易的货币正在下跌，谁可能会用货币、市场商品或两者来交换正在缓慢或快速下跌的货币？

It brings to mind the individual (no doubt one of many) who made millions on BTC, and his point that bitcoin is “the only commodity in history that doesn't have a supply response to rising prices.”

它让人想起通过比特币赚了数百万美元的个人（无疑是众多人中的一个），他认为比特币是“历史上唯一对价格上涨没有供应反应的商品”。

Well, that's true. But is there a supply response to falling prices?

嗯，确实如此。但供应是否会对价格下跌做出反应？

One guesses falling prices might attract sellers, but to be fair, falling prices would no doubt attract some buyers eager to get what's limited in supply at a lower price.

有人猜测，价格下跌可能会吸引卖家，但公平地说，价格下跌无疑会吸引一些渴望以较低价格获得供应有限商品的买家。

Except that it remains unexplained what buyers are getting assuming they buy at falling prices.

但仍然无法解释假设买家以下跌价格购买时会得到什么。

Without fundamentals at work, and with limited supply supposedly what imbues bitcoin owners with gold-plated insurance against price declines (where have you heard that one before?), it seems buyers and owners are getting a speculation based on nothing, one that if it lives up to its billing will never be an exchange medium as much as it will remain a speculation that there will always be buyers of what's limited in supply.

在没有基本面发挥作用的情况下，而且供应有限，据说比特币所有者可以通过镀金保险来应对价格下跌（你以前在哪里听说过这个保险吗？），买家和所有者似乎都在进行毫无根据的猜测，如果名副其实的永远不会成为一种交换媒介，因为它仍然是一种猜测，即总会有买家购买供应有限的东西。

Which is all well and good. Live and let live, as they say. Would it be that we'd all bought bitcoin in the early days, during a bear market, or both.

这一切都很好。正如他们所说，自己生活，也让别人生活。我们是否会在早期、熊市期间或两者兼而有之时都购买比特币？

Still, it's worth pointing out that fundamentals are at work with bitcoin, and they're rooted in the hope that there will always be a market for something limited in supply, and that for being limited in supply, can't ever fulfill the purpose of money; money being money for what it commands in the marketplace.

尽管如此，值得指出的是，基本面与比特币有关，它们植根于这样的希望：供应有限的东西总是有市场，而供应有限，永远无法实现目的金钱；货币是其在市场上所支配的货币。

The problem is that bitcoin isn't money, and we know it's not because its owners tell us it's not

问题是比特币不是货币，我们知道它不是因为它的所有者告诉我们它不是