到 2050 年，比特币储备将如何改变美国债务管理

VanEck 的分析支持这一战略，并预测到 2049 年，此类投资可将国家负债减少约 42 万亿美元。

Asset management giant VanEck has recently projected that the United States could significantly cut its national debt by as much as 36% by 2050 through adopting a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

资产管理巨头 VanEck 最近预测，通过采用战略比特币储备，美国到 2050 年可以将其国债大幅削减多达 36%。

This initiative aligns with Senator Cynthia Lummis’s Bitcoin Act, which advocates for the US to amass 1 million bitcoins within the next five years. The lawmaker argues that such a reserve could place future generations on a more stable financial footing, free from debts they did not accrue or benefit from.

这一举措与参议员 Cynthia Lummis 的比特币法案相一致，该法案主张美国在未来五年内积累 100 万枚比特币。这位立法者认为，这样的储备可以使子孙后代拥有更稳定的财务基础，免受他们没有积累或受益的债务的困扰。

How a Bitcoin Reserve Could Transform US Debt Management by 2050

到 2050 年，比特币储备将如何改变美国债务管理

VanEck’s analysis supports this strategy, predicting that such an investment could cut national liabilities by an estimated $42 trillion by 2049. This projection assumes a consistent debt growth rate of 5% and an annual bitcoin appreciation rate of 25%.

VanEck 的分析支持这一策略，预测此类投资到 2049 年可将国家债务减少约 42 万亿美元。该预测假设债务增长率持续为 5%，比特币年升值率为 25%。

In this scenario, Bitcoin’s value would skyrocket to over $42 million, making it a substantial player in the global financial arena by 2049.

在这种情况下，比特币的价值将飙升至 4200 万美元以上，到 2049 年将成为全球金融领域的重要参与者。

“Assuming today’s $900 trillion of total global financial assets compound at 7.0% from 2025 – 2049, Bitcoin would represent 18% of global financial assets in this scenario,” the firm added.

该公司补充道：“假设目前全球金融资产总额为 900 万亿美元，从 2025 年到 2049 年复合增长率为 7.0%，在这种情况下，比特币将占全球金融资产的 18%。”

Mathew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, highlighted Bitcoin’s potential role in reshaping the global financial landscape. He suggested that Bitcoin might become the leading settlement currency in global trade – presenting an alternative to the US dollar – especially for countries seeking to sidestep US sanctions.

VanEck 研究主管 Mathew Sigel 强调了比特币在重塑全球金融格局方面的潜在作用。他表示，比特币可能成为全球贸易中主要的结算货币——提供美元的替代品——特别是对于寻求规避美国制裁的国家而言。

“It’s very possible bitcoin will be widely used as a settlement currency for global trade by countries who wanted to avoid the parabolic increase in USD sanctions that have been imposed,” Sigel wrote.

西格尔写道：“比特币很可能会被那些希望避免美元制裁呈抛物线式增长的国家广泛用作全球贸易的结算货币。”

To kickstart this ambitious project, VanEck recommends several preliminary measures, including stopping the sale of Bitcoin from US asset forfeiture reserves.

为了启动这个雄心勃勃的项目，VanEck 建议采取几项初步措施，包括停止从美国资产没收储备中出售比特币。

Furthermore, they suggest that adjustments could be made under President Donald Trump’s incoming administration, such as revaluing gold certificates to their current market prices and using the Exchange Stabilization Fund to make initial Bitcoin purchases.

此外，他们建议在唐纳德·特朗普总统即将上任的政府领导下进行调整，例如将黄金证书重新估价至当前市场价格，并使用外汇稳定基金进行初始比特币购买。

Indeed, these steps could help establish the reserve quickly without waiting for extensive legislative approval.

事实上，这些步骤可以帮助快速建立储备金，而无需等待广泛的立法批准。

However, the proposal has met with some skepticism. Venture Capitalist Nic Carter has questioned whether a Bitcoin reserve would genuinely bolster the US dollar. Meanwhile, Peter Schiff proposes an alternative of the creation of a new digital currency called the USAcoin.

然而，该提议遭到了一些质疑。风险投资家尼克卡特质疑比特币储备是否能真正提振美元。与此同时，Peter Schiff 提出了另一种选择，即创建一种名为 USAcoin 的新数字货币。

“The US could save a lot of money by creating USAcoin. Just like Bitcoin, the supply can be capped at 21 million, but with an upgraded blockchain to make USAcoin actually viable for use in payments,” Schiff suggested.

“美国可以通过创建 USAcoin 来节省大量资金。就像比特币一样，供应量上限为 2100 万个，但升级后的区块链使 USAcoin 实际上可以用于支付，”Schiff 表示。