XRP 的 NVT 比率表明估值过高

尽管近期有所上涨，但 XRP 的网络价值与交易（NVT）比率凸显了潜在的高估风险。

XRP’s price has enjoyed a recent rally, but several metrics now point toward a potential risk of overvaluation.

XRP 的价格最近有所上涨，但现在有几个指标表明存在潜在的高估风险。

One key indicator is the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio, which highlights a concerning divergence. The metric compares an asset’s market capitalization to its transaction volume, offering insights into whether its price is sustainable.

一个关键指标是网络价值与交易（NVT）比率，它凸显了一个令人担忧的差异。该指标将资产的市值与其交易量进行比较，从而深入了解其价格是否可持续。

XRP’s NVT ratio has seen sharp fluctuations in December, indicating instability. The current spike in the ratio reflects a disconnect between XRP’s price and the underlying transaction activity on the network.

XRP的NVT比率在12月份出现了剧烈波动，表明不稳定。当前该比率的飙升反映出 XRP 的价格与网络上的基础交易活动之间的脱节。

While the price sits at $2.23, the high NVT ratio signals that market cap growth is outpacing network utility, a bearish sign. Unless transaction volumes catch up, XRP may face heightened correction risks, challenging the bullish momentum observed in recent weeks.

虽然价格为 2.23 美元，但较高的 NVT 比率表明市值增长速度超过了网络公用事业，这是一个看跌信号。除非交易量赶上，否则 XRP 可能面临更大的调整风险，挑战最近几周观察到的看涨势头。

Another metric raising concerns is the Price-Daily Active Addresses (DAA) divergence, which reveals a concerning trend for XRP’s rally. This metric assesses whether price movements align with user engagement on the network.

另一个引起担忧的指标是价格与每日活跃地址（DAA）的背离，这揭示了 XRP 上涨的令人担忧的趋势。该指标评估价格变动是否与网络上的用户参与度一致。

As XRP’s price surged to $2.23, the DAA divergence has plummeted by 326.13%. This stark decline indicates a drop in the number of active XRP wallets interacting with the token.

随着 XRP 价格飙升至 2.23 美元，DAA 背离大幅下降 326.13%。这种明显下降表明与该代币交互的活跃 XRP 钱包数量有所下降。

Such a sharp divergence suggests that the recent price spike is not being supported by robust on-chain activity.

如此巨大的差异表明，最近的价格飙升并没有得到强劲的链上活动的支持。

If user engagement remains low, it could undermine XRP’s bullish momentum and increase the risk of a significant price correction, putting its current rally under pressure.

如果用户参与度仍然较低，可能会削弱 XRP 的看涨势头，并增加价格大幅调整的风险，使其当前的涨势面临压力。

Finally, a glance at the 4-hour chart reveals XRP remaining under bearish pressure. The price attempted to reach $2.40 but faced resistance at $2.35, causing a pullback to $2.31. The MACD indicator shows that the 12- and 26-period EMAs are in the negative region, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

最后，4 小时图显示 XRP 仍处于看跌压力之下。价格试图达到 2.40 美元，但在 2.35 美元处遇到阻力，导致回调至 2.31 美元。 MACD 指标显示 12 期和 26 期 EMA 处于负值区域，强化了看跌情绪。

With declining momentum, XRP risks further drops to $2.05 and potentially $1.90 in a strongly bearish scenario. However, renewed buying interest could push the price back to $2.73.

随着势头下降，XRP 风险进一步跌至 2.05 美元，在强烈看跌的情况下可能跌至 1.90 美元。然而，新的购买兴趣可能会将价格推回 2.73 美元。

As the token consolidates around $2.24, traders should watch for either a breakout above $2.35 or a continued downtrend.

随着该代币在 2.24 美元附近盘整，交易者应该关注突破 2.35 美元或持续下跌趋势。

The MACD’s position highlights caution for bullish expectations in the short term

MACD 的立场凸显了对短期看涨预期的谨慎态度