比特幣的交易不是基於基本面，而是基於供需

前一點是在最近的一篇專欄中提出的，旨在解釋最著名的加密貨幣概念的飆升價值。

Bitcoin investors are expecting the U.S. Securities And Exchange Commission (SEC) to issue a decision soon on whether to grant Bitcoin "exchange-traded fund" (ETF) approval, which would allow people to invest in Bitcoin without having to buy it on a crypto exchange like Coinbase or Binance.

比特幣投資者期待美國證券交易委員會（SEC）很快就是否批准比特幣「交易所交易基金」（ETF）做出決定，這將允許人們投資比特幣，而無需透過加密貨幣購買像Coinbase 或Binance這樣的交易所。

The price of Bitcoin has risen in anticipation of such approval. But why is the price of the most prominent cryptocurrency rising so much? According to one popular explanation, it's because the coin doesn't trade on fundamentals, but instead on supply and demand.

由於預期這種批准，比特幣的價格已經上漲。但為什麼最著名的加密貨幣的價格上漲如此之多？根據一種流行的解釋，這是因為代幣的交易不是基於基本面，而是基於供需。

One investor who's made millions on bitcoin was recently asked by a journalist why he put money into it, and his response was that “It’s the only commodity in history that doesn’t have a supply response to rising prices.”

一位透過比特幣賺了數百萬美元的投資者最近被記者問到為什麼要投資比特幣，他的回答是“這是歷史上唯一一種對價格上漲沒有供應反應的商品。”

But as Giedre Valaviciute points out in a recent column, this explanation doesn't square with the coin's price history, which has seen plenty of bear markets.

但正如 Giedre Valaviciute 在最近的一篇專欄中指出的那樣，這種解釋與該幣的價格歷史並不相符，該幣經歷了許多熊市。

If a limited supply is really what makes bitcoin such a great investment, then why all the stretches when the price of the coin was in decline?

如果有限的供應確實使比特幣成為一項偉大的投資，那麼為什麼當比特幣的價格下跌時會出現如此大的波動呢？

“Bitcoin doesn't trade on fundamentals. It trades on supply and demand. Period. Full stop. Don't overcomplicate it,” Valaviciute writes, summarizing the perspective of bitcoin investors.

「比特幣並非根據基本面進行交易。它根據供給和需求進行交易。時期。句號。不要把事情搞得太複雜，」Valaviciute 寫道，總結了比特幣投資者的觀點。

But if bitcoin doesn't trade on fundamentals, then what are those who own the coins speculating on?

但如果比特幣的交易不符合基本面，那麼那些擁有比特幣的人又在進行什麼投機呢？

There's nothing more to it than a speculation, which is all that bitcoin investors own. What do they think they own, exactly?

這只不過是一種投機，而這就是比特幣投資者所擁有的一切。他們認為自己到底擁有什麼？

Some will no doubt repeat once again that they own something that is finite in supply, and that the limit in supply means they own something that can only go up.

毫無疑問，有些人會再次重申，他們所擁有的東西的供應量是有限的，而供應量的限制意味著他們所擁有的東西只會上漲。

Ok, but if so, what do they really own? Think about it.

好吧，但如果是這樣，他們真正擁有什麼？想一想。

And in thinking about it, it should be said with certitude that those who feel fortunate enough to own bitcoin (and surely many feel this way) don't really own money or a coin.

考慮到這一點，應該肯定地說，那些覺得自己夠幸運擁有比特幣的人（當然很多人都有這種感覺）並沒有真正擁有金錢或硬幣。

Money's worth is in what it can buy, but bitcoin owners logically wouldn't use it to buy things.

金錢的價值在於它能買到什麼，但比特幣所有者從邏輯上講不會用它來購買東西。

Evidence supporting the above claim can be found in the stated belief by bitcoin owners and commentators that the so-called coin doesn't trade on fundamentals, but instead supply and demand such that it can only become more valuable.

支持上述說法的證據可以在比特幣所有者和評論員的聲明中找到，即所謂的硬幣並不根據基本面進行交易，而是根據供需關係進行交易，從而使其變得更有價值。

But if the value of the coin is only going up, then it's not money. Really, who would buy with a monetary medium that, once exchanged for fiat money, market goods or both, will soon enough be worth much more than it was when used to make the purchase of fiat money, market goods, or both?

但如果硬幣的價值只是上漲，那麼它就不是錢。確實，誰會使用一種貨幣媒介進行購買，這種貨幣媒介一旦兌換成法定貨幣、市場商品或兩者，很快就會比用於購買法定貨幣、市場商品或兩者時的價值高得多？

To which some might say that demand for that which is finite won't always remain constant such that there will be bitcoin bear markets too.

有些人可能會說，對有限事物的需求不會總是保持不變，因此也會出現比特幣熊市。

Ok, but isn't the point of bitcoin that it doesn't trade on fundamentals, but instead supply and demand?

好吧，但是比特幣的重點不就是它不是根據基本面進行交易，而是根據供需進行交易嗎？

Based on that, what are the “non-fundamentals” that would cause bitcoin to decline in value?

那麼，哪些「非基本面」會導致比特幣貶值呢？

And if a coin that doesn't trade on fundamentals is in decline, who might exchange money, market goods or both for that which is in slow or rapid decline?

如果一種不根據基本面進行交易的貨幣正在下跌，誰可能會用貨幣、市場商品或兩者來交換正在緩慢或快速下跌的貨幣？

It brings to mind the individual (no doubt one of many) who made millions on BTC, and his point that bitcoin is “the only commodity in history that doesn't have a supply response to rising prices.”

它讓人想起一個靠比特幣賺了數百萬美元的人（無疑是眾多人中的一個），他認為比特幣是「歷史上唯一對價格上漲沒有供應反應的商品」。

Well, that's true. But is there a supply response to falling prices?

嗯，確實如此。但供應是否會對價格下跌做出反應？

One guesses falling prices might attract sellers, but to be fair, falling prices would no doubt attract some buyers eager to get what's limited in supply at a lower price.

有人猜測，價格下跌可能會吸引賣家，但公平地說，價格下跌無疑會吸引一些渴望以較低價格獲得供應有限商品的買家。

Except that it remains unexplained what buyers are getting assuming they buy at falling prices.

但仍然無法解釋假設買家以下跌價格購買時會得到什麼。

Without fundamentals at work, and with limited supply supposedly what imbues bitcoin owners with gold-plated insurance against price declines (where have you heard that one before?), it seems buyers and owners are getting a speculation based on nothing, one that if it lives up to its billing will never be an exchange medium as much as it will remain a speculation that there will always be buyers of what's limited in supply.

在沒有基本面發揮作用的情況下，而且供應有限，據說比特幣所有者可以通過鍍金保險來應對價格下跌（你以前在哪裡聽說過這個保險嗎？），買家和所有者似乎都在進行毫無根據的猜測，如果名副其實的永遠不會成為一種交換媒介，因為它仍然是一種猜測，即總會有買家購買供應有限的東西。

Which is all well and good. Live and let live, as they say. Would it be that we'd all bought bitcoin in the early days, during a bear market, or both.

這一切都很好。正如他們所說，自己生活，也讓別人生活。我們是否會在早期、熊市期間或兩者兼而有之時都購買比特幣？

Still, it's worth pointing out that fundamentals are at work with bitcoin, and they're rooted in the hope that there will always be a market for something limited in supply, and that for being limited in supply, can't ever fulfill the purpose of money; money being money for what it commands in the marketplace.

儘管如此，值得指出的是，基本面與比特幣有關，它們植根於這樣的希望：供應有限的東西總是有市場，而供應有限，永遠無法實現目的金錢；貨幣是其在市場上所支配的貨幣。

The problem is that bitcoin isn't money, and we know it's not because its owners tell us it's not

問題是比特幣不是貨幣，我們知道它不是因為它的所有者告訴我們它不是