随着减半影响减弱，流动性困境持续，比特币回调迫在眉睫

• Bitcoin may face selling pressure in the second half of April as the supposedly bullish impact of halving is already well entrenched, Hayes said in a blog post.

  海耶斯在博客文章中表示，比特币可能在 4 月下半月面临抛售压力，因为减半的看涨影响已经根深蒂固。

• U.S. tax payments could suck dollar liquidity from the financial system, fueling risk aversion and a fire sale of risk assets, Hayes said.

  海耶斯表示，美国纳税可能会吸走金融体系的美元流动性，加剧风险规避和风险资产的抛售。

Gear up for some pain in the digital assets market.

做好应对数字资产市场的一些痛苦的准备。

Bitcoin {{BTC}}, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, will probably face selling pressure in the days before and after the mining-reward halving due April 20, a supposedly bullish event.

比特币 {{BTC}} 是市值领先的加密货币，在 4 月 20 日挖矿奖励减半（据称是一个看涨事件）前后几天可能会面临抛售压力。

That's the message from Arthur Hayes, a co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX and the chief investment officer at Maelstrom.

这是加密货币交易所 BitMEX 联合创始人兼前首席执行官、Maelstrom 首席投资官 Arthur Hayes 发出的信息。

In his latest blog post, "Heatwave," Hayes explained that the bullish halving narrative is "well entrenched," leaving the doors open for a so-called price correction. In crypto, a correction is considered a price drop of at least 10%.

海耶斯在他最新的博客文章“热浪”中解释说，看涨减半的说法“根深蒂固”，为所谓的价格调整敞开了大门。在加密货币中，调整被认为是价格至少下跌 10%。

The bullish narrative stems from data showing bitcoin tends to chalk out stellar multimonth rallies in the months after the halving, an event that reduces the pace of supply expansion rate by 50% every four years. This time the halving will cut the per-block issuance to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.

看涨的说法源于数据显示，比特币往往会在减半后的几个月内出现强劲的数月反弹，这一事件使供应扩张速度每四年降低 50%。这次减半将使每个区块的发行量从 6.25 BTC 减少到 3.125 BTC。

"The narrative of the halving being positive for crypto prices is well entrenched," Hayes wrote. "When most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually occurs. That is why I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving."

海耶斯写道：“减半对加密货币价格有利的说法是根深蒂固的。” “当大多数市场参与者就某个结果达成一致时，通常会发生相反的情况。这就是为什么我相信比特币和加密货币价格总体会在减半前后暴跌。”

Several analysts have argued that the supply slowdown is priced in and the market could correct following the event. Bitcoin has rallied over 65% this year, setting new records above $70,000 well before the halving.

一些分析师认为，供应放缓已被消化，市场可能会在事件发生后进行调整。比特币今年已上涨超过 65%，在减半前就创下了 70,000 美元以上的新纪录。

Tax payments to suck out liquidity

Hayes added that U.S. tax payments, due on April 15, coupled with the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) policies, could remove dollar liquidity from the market, leading to broad-based risk aversion and a fire sale of crypto assets around halving.

海耶斯补充说，美国将于 4 月 15 日缴纳的税款，加上美联储的量化紧缩（QT）政策，可能会消除市场上的美元流动性，导致广泛的避险情绪和加密货币的抛售资产减半左右。

"Given that the halving occurs at a time when dollar liquidity is tighter than usual, it will add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets. The timing of the halving adds further weight to my decision to abstain from trading until May," Hayes said.

“鉴于减半发生在美元流动性比平时更紧张的时候，这将为加密资产的疯狂抛售增添动力。减半的时机进一步增加了我在五月份之前放弃交易的决定，”海耶斯说道。

Tax payments typically remove liquidity from the financial system as individuals withdraw cash from bank deposits and market funds to pay their dues.

当个人从银行存款和市场基金中提取现金来支付会费时，纳税通常会消除金融体系的流动性。

When the dollar's liquidity dries up, it appreciates against other fiat currencies, and borrowers with dollar-denominated loans face higher interest expenses and scale-back exposure to risk assets like cryptocurrencies and technology stocks. The dollar's weakening has the opposite impact. The U.S. dollar, a global reserve currency, plays an outsized role in global trade, non-bank borrowing, and international debt.

当美元的流动性枯竭时，它兑其他法定货币就会升值，而拥有美元计价贷款的借款人将面临更高的利息支出，并减少对加密货币和科技股等风险资产的敞口。美元走弱会产生相反的影响。美元作为全球储备货币，在全球贸易、非银行借贷和国际债务中发挥着巨大作用。

Liquidity outflows due to impending tax payments could be sizeable, thanks to capital gains from the booming stock markets and interest income from elevated interest rates. In other words, the balance in the Treasury General Account (TGA) is set to rise sharply in the second half of April. The TGA is the government's operating account maintained at the Fed to collect tax revenue, customs duties, proceeds from securities sales and debt receipts and meet government expenses.

由于股市繁荣带来的资本收益和利率上升带来的利息收入，即将纳税导致的流动性外流可能会相当大。换句话说，财政部普通账户（TGA）余额将在4月下半月大幅上升。 TGA 是政府在美联储设立的运营账户，用于收取税收、关税、证券销售收益和债务收入，并满足政府开支。

"When the Treasury receives tax payments, the TGA balance rises. I expect the TGA balance to swell well above the current ~$750 billion level as tax payments are processed on April 15th. This is dollar liquidity negative," Hayes said. "The precarious period for risky assets is April 15th to May 1st."

“当财政部收到税款时，TGA 余额就会增加。我预计，随着 4 月 15 日处理税款，TGA 余额将远高于目前约 7500 亿美元的水平。这对美元流动性来说是负面的，”海斯说。 “风险资产的不稳定期是4月15日至5月1日。”

Hayes expects Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to run down the Treasury General Account after May 1, providing a bullish tailwind to risk assets in months leading up to the U.S. presidential election in November.

海耶斯预计，财政部长珍妮特·耶伦 (Janet Yellen) 将在 5 月 1 日后削减财政部普通账户，从而在 11 月美国总统大选前的几个月内为风险资产提供看涨动力。

"After May 1st, the pace of QT declines, and Yellen gets busy cashing checks to jack up asset prices. If you are a trader looking for an opportune time to put on a cheeky short position, the month of April is the perfect time to do so. After May 1st, it’s back to regular programming … asset inflation sponsored by Fed and U.S. Treasury financial shenanigans," Hayes wrote.

“5月1日之后，QT节奏放缓，耶伦忙着兑现支票来推高资产价格。如果你是一名交易者，正在寻找时机厚颜无耻地建立空头头寸，那么4月份就是最佳时机。这样做。5 月 1 日之后，一切又回到了常规计划……由美联储和美国财政部的金融恶作剧发起的资产通胀，”海耶斯写道。