隨著減半影響減弱，流動性困境持續，比特幣回檔迫在眉睫

• Bitcoin may face selling pressure in the second half of April as the supposedly bullish impact of halving is already well entrenched, Hayes said in a blog post.

  海耶斯在部落格文章中表示，比特幣可能在 4 月下半月面臨拋售壓力，因為減半的看漲影響已經根深蒂固。

• U.S. tax payments could suck dollar liquidity from the financial system, fueling risk aversion and a fire sale of risk assets, Hayes said.

  海耶斯表示，美國納稅可能會吸走金融體系的美元流動性，加劇風險規避和風險資產的拋售。

Gear up for some pain in the digital assets market.

做好應對數位資產市場的一些痛苦的準備。

Bitcoin {{BTC}}, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, will probably face selling pressure in the days before and after the mining-reward halving due April 20, a supposedly bullish event.

比特幣 {{BTC}} 是市值領先的加密貨幣，在 4 月 20 日挖礦獎勵減半（據稱是一個看漲事件）前後幾天可能會面臨拋售壓力。

That's the message from Arthur Hayes, a co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX and the chief investment officer at Maelstrom.

這是加密貨幣交易所 BitMEX 聯合創始人兼前執行長、Maelstrom 首席投資長 Arthur Hayes 發出的訊息。

In his latest blog post, "Heatwave," Hayes explained that the bullish halving narrative is "well entrenched," leaving the doors open for a so-called price correction. In crypto, a correction is considered a price drop of at least 10%.

海耶斯在他最新的部落格文章“熱浪”中解釋說，看漲減半的說法“根深蒂固”，為所謂的價格調整敞開了大門。在加密貨幣中，調整被認為是價格至少下跌 10%。

The bullish narrative stems from data showing bitcoin tends to chalk out stellar multimonth rallies in the months after the halving, an event that reduces the pace of supply expansion rate by 50% every four years. This time the halving will cut the per-block issuance to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.

看漲的說法源自於數據顯示，比特幣往往在減半後的幾個月內出現強勁的數月反彈，這一事件使供應擴張速度每四年降低 50%。這次減半將使每個區塊的發行量從 6.25 BTC 減少到 3.125 BTC。

"The narrative of the halving being positive for crypto prices is well entrenched," Hayes wrote. "When most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually occurs. That is why I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving."

海耶斯寫道：“減半對加密貨幣價格有利的說法是根深蒂固的。” “當大多數市場參與者就某個結果達成一致時，通常會發生相反的情況。這就是為什麼我相信比特幣和加密貨幣價格總體會在減半前後暴跌。”

Several analysts have argued that the supply slowdown is priced in and the market could correct following the event. Bitcoin has rallied over 65% this year, setting new records above $70,000 well before the halving.

一些分析師認為，供應放緩已被消化，市場可能會在事件發生後進行調整。比特幣今年已上漲超過 65%，在減半前就創下了 7 萬美元以上的新紀錄。

Tax payments to suck out liquidity

Hayes added that U.S. tax payments, due on April 15, coupled with the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) policies, could remove dollar liquidity from the market, leading to broad-based risk aversion and a fire sale of crypto assets around halving.

海耶斯補充說，美國將於 4 月 15 日繳納的稅款，加上聯準會的量化緊縮（QT）政策，可能會消除市場上的美元流動性，導致廣泛的避險情緒和加密貨幣的拋售資產減半左右。

"Given that the halving occurs at a time when dollar liquidity is tighter than usual, it will add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets. The timing of the halving adds further weight to my decision to abstain from trading until May," Hayes said.

「鑑於減半發生在美元流動性比平時更緊張的時候，這將為加密資產的瘋狂拋售增添動力。減半的時機進一步增加了我在五月份之前放棄交易的決定，」海耶斯說。

Tax payments typically remove liquidity from the financial system as individuals withdraw cash from bank deposits and market funds to pay their dues.

當個人從銀行存款和市場基金提取現金來支付會費時，納稅通常會消除金融體系的流動性。

When the dollar's liquidity dries up, it appreciates against other fiat currencies, and borrowers with dollar-denominated loans face higher interest expenses and scale-back exposure to risk assets like cryptocurrencies and technology stocks. The dollar's weakening has the opposite impact. The U.S. dollar, a global reserve currency, plays an outsized role in global trade, non-bank borrowing, and international debt.

當美元的流動性枯竭時，它兌其他法定貨幣就會升值，而擁有美元計價貸款的借款人將面臨更高的利息支出，並減少對加密貨幣和科技股等風險資產的敞口。美元走弱會產生相反的影響。美元作為全球儲備貨幣，在全球貿易、非銀行借貸和國際債務中發揮巨大作用。

Liquidity outflows due to impending tax payments could be sizeable, thanks to capital gains from the booming stock markets and interest income from elevated interest rates. In other words, the balance in the Treasury General Account (TGA) is set to rise sharply in the second half of April. The TGA is the government's operating account maintained at the Fed to collect tax revenue, customs duties, proceeds from securities sales and debt receipts and meet government expenses.

由於股市繁榮帶來的資本利得和利率上升所帶來的利息收入，即將納稅導致的流動性外流可能會相當大。換句話說，財政部普通帳戶（TGA）餘額將在4月下半月大幅上升。 TGA 是政府在聯準會設立的營運帳戶，用於收取稅金、關稅、證券銷售收益和債務收入，並滿足政府開支。

"When the Treasury receives tax payments, the TGA balance rises. I expect the TGA balance to swell well above the current ~$750 billion level as tax payments are processed on April 15th. This is dollar liquidity negative," Hayes said. "The precarious period for risky assets is April 15th to May 1st."

「當財政部收到稅款時，TGA 餘額就會增加。我預計，隨著4 月15 日處理稅款，TGA 餘額將遠高於目前約7500 億美元的水平。這對美元流動性來說是負面的，」海斯說。 “風險資產的不穩定期是4月15日至5月1日。”

Hayes expects Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to run down the Treasury General Account after May 1, providing a bullish tailwind to risk assets in months leading up to the U.S. presidential election in November.

海耶斯預計，財政部長珍妮特耶倫 (Janet Yellen) 將在 5 月 1 日後削減財政部普通帳戶，從而在 11 月美國總統大選前的幾個月內為風險資產提供看漲動力。

"After May 1st, the pace of QT declines, and Yellen gets busy cashing checks to jack up asset prices. If you are a trader looking for an opportune time to put on a cheeky short position, the month of April is the perfect time to do so. After May 1st, it’s back to regular programming … asset inflation sponsored by Fed and U.S. Treasury financial shenanigans," Hayes wrote.

「5月1日之後，QT節奏放緩，耶倫忙著兌現支票來推高資產價格。如果你是一名交易者，正在尋找時機厚顏無恥地建立空頭頭寸，那麼4月份就是最佳時機。這樣做。5 月1 日之後，一切又回到了常規計劃……由美聯儲和美國財政部的金融惡作劇發起的資產通脹，」海耶斯寫道。