比特币的链上活动未达到牛市峰值

在当前的牛市中，比特币总转账量已达到 1180 亿美元的峰值，尽管价格水平相当，但仍显着低于 2021 年市场高峰期间观察到的 7400 亿美元的高点。这种差异可能归因于比特币现货交易所交易基金（ETF）的使用增加，引入了在链外持有比特币且不积极参与链上交易的新投资者。

Bitcoin's On-Chain Activity Lags Behind 2021 Bull Run Peak

比特币的链上活动落后于 2021 年牛市高峰

Despite Bitcoin (BTC) reaching a new all-time high price recently, on-chain data reveals a stark contrast in the network's transfer volume compared to the 2021 bull run peak.

尽管比特币 (BTC) 最近创下了历史新高，但链上数据显示，与 2021 年牛市峰值相比，网络传输量形成了鲜明对比。

According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin's total transfer volume has only reached a high of $118 billion in the current bull run, a mere fraction of the $740 billion all-time high (ATH) set in November 2021.

CryptoQuant 分析师 Axel Adler Jr. 表示，在当前的牛市中，比特币的总转账量仅达到 1180 亿美元的高点，仅是 2021 年 11 月创下的 7400 亿美元历史高点 (ATH) 的一小部分。

The total transfer volume measures the total amount of BTC involved in transactions on the network daily, providing insights into the level of activity and demand. Historically, this metric has surged during bull markets, reflecting increased trading activity and network usage.

总传输量衡量每日网络交易中涉及的 BTC 总量，提供对活动和需求水平的洞察。从历史上看，该指标在牛市期间飙升，反映出交易活动和网络使用量的增加。

"This means that, at that point, the blockchain was processing the movement of capital worth $740 billion per day," Adler Jr. explains. "This peak is still the all-time high (ATH) for the metric."

“这意味着，当时区块链每天正在处理价值 7400 亿美元的资本流动，”Adler Jr. 解释道。 “这个峰值仍然是该指标的历史最高点（ATH）。”

However, despite BTC setting a new price ATH in its latest rally, the corresponding transfer volume has fallen significantly short. This indicates a notable divergence from previous bull runs, where volume typically surged alongside price increases.

然而，尽管BTC在最近的上涨中创下了新的价格ATH，但相应的转账量却大幅下降。这表明与之前的牛市明显不同，之前的牛市成交量通常随着价格上涨而激增。

"Why, then, is the current bull run different in this pattern?" Adler Jr. questions.

“那么，为什么当前的牛市与这种模式不同呢？”小阿德勒提问。

One potential explanation lies in the emergence of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have gained popularity among investors seeking indirect exposure to the cryptocurrency. Spot ETFs purchase and hold BTC, allowing their users to access the asset through a familiar and regulated platform.

一种可能的解释是比特币现货交易所交易基金（ETF）的出现，该基金在寻求间接投资加密货币的投资者中受到欢迎。现货 ETF 购买并持有 BTC，允许其用户通过熟悉且受监管的平台访问该资产。

While spot ETFs have undoubtedly brought significant demand to Bitcoin, their impact on on-chain activity is different from that of active crypto users who directly participate in the network. "The fresh demand through the spot ETFs is all 'off-chain,' so to speak, as the ones holding their coins are the funds themselves," Adler Jr. notes.

虽然现货 ETF 无疑给比特币带来了巨大的需求，但它们对链上活动的影响与直接参与网络的活跃加密用户的影响不同。 “可以这么说，通过现货 ETF 产生的新需求都是‘链外’的，因为持有代币的人就是基金本身，”小阿德勒指出。

This off-chain demand does not directly translate into increased on-chain transfer volume, as the ETFs act as intermediaries between investors and the network. As a result, while spot ETFs have boosted BTC's overall market demand, they have not had a proportional impact on the network's activity.

这种链下需求不会直接转化为链上转账量的增加，因为 ETF 充当投资者和网络之间的中介。因此，虽然现货 ETF 提振了 BTC 的整体市场需求，但它们并未对网络活动产生相应的影响。

BTC's price has experienced some volatility in recent days, recovering above $69,000 yesterday before retracing to around $66,600. Despite the high price levels, the subdued on-chain transfer volume suggests a divergence between price action and network activity.

BTC 的价格最近几天经历了一些波动，昨天回升至 69,000 美元以上，然后回落至 66,600 美元左右。尽管价格水平很高，但链上转账量低迷表明价格行为和网络活动之间存在分歧。

Overall, the contrast between Bitcoin's current bull run and the 2021 peak in terms of total transfer volume highlights the different dynamics at play in the market. While spot ETFs have introduced new investors, their off-chain nature has moderated the impact on network activity, leading to a divergence in the relationship between price and volume.

总体而言，比特币当前的牛市与 2021 年总转账量峰值之间的对比凸显了市场中不同的动态。虽然现货 ETF 引入了新的投资者，但其链外性质减轻了对网络活动的影响，导致价格和交易量之间的关系出现分歧。