比特幣的鏈上活動未達牛市峰值

在目前的多頭市場中，比特幣總轉帳量已達到 1,180 億美元的峰值，儘管價格水平相當，但仍顯著低於 2021 年市場高峰期間觀察到的 7,400 億美元的高點。這種差異可能歸因於比特幣現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）的使用增加，引入了在鏈外持有比特幣且不積極參與鏈上交易的新投資者。

Bitcoin's On-Chain Activity Lags Behind 2021 Bull Run Peak

比特幣的鏈上活動落後於 2021 年多頭高峰

Despite Bitcoin (BTC) reaching a new all-time high price recently, on-chain data reveals a stark contrast in the network's transfer volume compared to the 2021 bull run peak.

儘管比特幣 (BTC) 最近創下了歷史新高，但鏈上數據顯示，與 2021 年牛市高峰相比，網路傳輸量形成了鮮明對比。

According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin's total transfer volume has only reached a high of $118 billion in the current bull run, a mere fraction of the $740 billion all-time high (ATH) set in November 2021.

CryptoQuant 分析師Axel Adler Jr. 表示，在目前的多頭市場中，比特幣的總轉帳量僅達到1,180 億美元的高點，僅是2021 年11 月創下的7,400 億美元歷史高點(ATH) 的一小部分。

The total transfer volume measures the total amount of BTC involved in transactions on the network daily, providing insights into the level of activity and demand. Historically, this metric has surged during bull markets, reflecting increased trading activity and network usage.

總傳輸量衡量每日網路交易中涉及的 BTC 總量，提供對活動和需求水準的洞察。從歷史上看，該指標在牛市期間飆升，反映出交易活動和網路使用量的增加。

"This means that, at that point, the blockchain was processing the movement of capital worth $740 billion per day," Adler Jr. explains. "This peak is still the all-time high (ATH) for the metric."

「這意味著，當時區塊鏈每天正在處理價值 7,400 億美元的資本流動，」Adler Jr. 解釋道。 「這個高峰仍然是該指標的歷史最高點（ATH）。”

However, despite BTC setting a new price ATH in its latest rally, the corresponding transfer volume has fallen significantly short. This indicates a notable divergence from previous bull runs, where volume typically surged alongside price increases.

然而，儘管BTC在最近的上漲中創下了新的價格ATH，但相應的轉帳量卻大幅下降。這表明與之前的牛市明顯不同，之前的牛市成交量通常隨著價格上漲而激增。

"Why, then, is the current bull run different in this pattern?" Adler Jr. questions.

“那麼，為什麼當前的牛市與這種模式不同？”小阿德勒提問。

One potential explanation lies in the emergence of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have gained popularity among investors seeking indirect exposure to the cryptocurrency. Spot ETFs purchase and hold BTC, allowing their users to access the asset through a familiar and regulated platform.

一個可能的解釋是比特幣現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）的出現，該基金在尋求間接投資加密貨幣的投資者中受到歡迎。現貨 ETF 購買並持有 BTC，允許其用戶透過熟悉且受監管的平台存取該資產。

While spot ETFs have undoubtedly brought significant demand to Bitcoin, their impact on on-chain activity is different from that of active crypto users who directly participate in the network. "The fresh demand through the spot ETFs is all 'off-chain,' so to speak, as the ones holding their coins are the funds themselves," Adler Jr. notes.

雖然現貨 ETF 無疑為比特幣帶來了巨大的需求，但它們對鏈上活動的影響與直接參與網路的活躍加密用戶的影響不同。 「可以這麼說，透過現貨 ETF 產生的新需求都是『鏈外』的，因為持有代幣的人就是基金本身，」小阿德勒指出。

This off-chain demand does not directly translate into increased on-chain transfer volume, as the ETFs act as intermediaries between investors and the network. As a result, while spot ETFs have boosted BTC's overall market demand, they have not had a proportional impact on the network's activity.

這種鏈下需求不會直接轉化為鏈上轉帳量的增加，因為 ETF 充當投資者和網路之間的中介。因此，雖然現貨 ETF 提振了 BTC 的整體市場需求，但它們並未對網路活動產生相應的影響。

BTC's price has experienced some volatility in recent days, recovering above $69,000 yesterday before retracing to around $66,600. Despite the high price levels, the subdued on-chain transfer volume suggests a divergence between price action and network activity.

BTC 的價格最近幾天經歷了一些波動，昨天回升至 69,000 美元以上，然後回落至 66,600 美元左右。儘管價格水平很高，但鏈上轉帳量低迷表明價格行為和網路活動之間存在分歧。

Overall, the contrast between Bitcoin's current bull run and the 2021 peak in terms of total transfer volume highlights the different dynamics at play in the market. While spot ETFs have introduced new investors, their off-chain nature has moderated the impact on network activity, leading to a divergence in the relationship between price and volume.

整體而言，比特幣目前的多頭市場與 2021 年總轉帳量高峰之間的對比凸顯了市場中不同的動態。雖然現貨 ETF 引入了新的投資者，但其鏈外性質減輕了對網路活動的影響，導致價格和交易量之間的關係出現分歧。