交易員相信，比特幣價格達到 10 萬美元不再是夢想，但短期內將出現突破頂峰的警告

QCP 交易員預計未來幾個月價格將上漲至 100,000 美元，比目前超過 93,000 美元的紀錄高出近 10%，這些收益將流入山寨幣，標誌著普遍的「山寨幣季節」。

Bitcoin (BTC) traders are now predicting a run to $100,000 as the new record high, up nearly 10% from the current all-time high of over $93,000, with those gains set to flow into altcoins, signaling the start of a broader "alt season."

比特幣(BTC) 交易員現在預測，比特幣價格將升至100,000 美元，創下新高，較目前超過93,000 美元的歷史高點上漲近10%，這些收益將流入山寨幣，標誌著更廣泛的「山寨幣”的開始。季節。”

Bitcoin's new all-time high is now in sight as the asset continues to rally swiftly in the wake of the U.S. midterm elections, which saw Republicans largely victorious in the House and Senate. Those gains, coupled with the pro-crypto stance of several winning candidates, have fueled optimism in the crypto market.

比特幣的歷史新高現在已經在望，因為在美國中期選舉之後，比特幣繼續迅速上漲，共和黨在參眾兩院基本上取得了勝利。這些成果，加上幾位獲勝候選人支持加密貨幣的立場，加劇了加密貨幣市場的樂觀情緒。

"Predictions of BTC at 100K aren't a pipedream anymore as the political and institutional stars start to align," traders at Singapore-based QCP Capital noted in a Telegram broadcast on Tuesday. "Despite having net ETF outflows last Thursday and Friday, BTC still looks relatively well supported and institutional adoption remains strong."

總部位於新加坡的 QCP Capital 交易員在周二的 Telegram 廣播中指出：“隨著政治和機構明星開始一致，比特幣價格達到 10 萬的預測不再是白日夢。” “儘管上週四和週五 ETF 出現淨流出，但 BTC 看起來仍然得到相對良好的支持，機構採用率仍然強勁。”

The bull run saw major bitcoin (BTC) backer MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet both revealing fresh BTC purchases on Monday, with the former now holding 1.5% of the asset's total supply.

在多頭市場中，主要比特幣 (BTC) 支持者 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 和 Metaplanet 週一均透露了新的 BTC 購買情況，前者目前持有該資產總供應量的 1.5%。

QCP traders expect a run to $100,000 — nearly 10% higher than the current record of over $93,000 — in the coming months, with those gains flowing into altcoins in a mark of a general "alt season."

QCP 交易員預計未來幾個月價格將上漲至 100,000 美元，比目前超過 93,000 美元的紀錄高出近 10%，這些收益將流入山寨幣，標誌著普遍的「山寨幣季節」。

"BTC's dominance is around 60% now and will probably need to be under 58% to signal the start of altcoin season. We anticipate pro-crypto policies from the Trump administration and more rate cuts. We won't be surprised to see altcoin season in full swing in the coming months," QCP traders noted.

「比特幣的主導地位目前約為60%，可能需要低於58% 才能預示山寨幣季節的開始。我們預計川普政府將推出支持加密貨幣的政策，並進一步降息。看到山寨幣季節到來，我們不會感到驚訝未來幾個月將全面展開，」QCP 交易員指出。

Banks and traditional finance analysts have issued targets as high as $200,000 after Republican Donald Trump's victory in the November elections.

共和黨人唐納德·川普 (Donald Trump) 在 11 月大選中獲勝後，銀行和傳統金融分析師發布了高達 20 萬美元的目標。

A retail sentiment gauge by U.S. bank JPMorgan rose to a record high of 4 earlier this week, suggesting renewed demand from smaller professional investors. The measure is designed to gauge the sentiment of retail investors toward cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin, based on the activity in the family of BTC products, including spot ETFs.

美國銀行摩根大通的零售信心指數本週稍早升至歷史新高4，顯示小型專業投資者的需求重新出現。該措施旨在根據包括現貨 ETF 在內的 BTC 產品系列的活動來衡量散戶投資者對加密貨幣（尤其是比特幣）的情緒。

However, not all are optimistic, with some expressing concerns about a near-term market top.

然而，並非所有人都持樂觀態度，有些人對近期市場見頂表示擔憂。

"We feel that the 'easy' part of the rally has been done and the next stage will be much trickier with more price choppiness and potential for drawdowns," Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message. "Bitcoin dominance remains on a one-way trend higher reminiscent of the mega-cap dominance in SPX, and is not particularly desirable for this stage of the crypto ecosystem."

SOFA 的洞察主管 Augustine Fan 在 Telegram 訊息中告訴 CoinDesk：“我們認為反彈的‘簡單’部分已經完成，下一階段將更加棘手，價格波動更大，並有可能出現回撤。” “比特幣的主導地位仍然處於單向趨勢，讓人想起 SPX 的大型股主導地位，對於加密生態系統的現階段來說並不是特別理想。”

"We'll be looking for a potential blow-off top in the near term with market sentiment at highly frothy levels," Fan added.

範補充說：“隨著市場情緒處於高度泡沫化水平，我們將在短期內尋找潛在的爆發性頂部。”

A blow-off top is a chart pattern recognized in technical analysis that indicates a rapid and steep increase in the price of an asset, followed by an equally rapid decline.

爆炸頂是技術分析中認可的圖表模式，顯示資產價格快速急劇上漲，隨後同樣快速下跌。

In case of a blow off top, the former record high of around $69,000 could be tested again, with a classic bear market wick potentially extending up to lower $60,000, said CoinDesk's senior markets analyst Omkar Godbole.

CoinDesk 的高級市場分析師 Omkar Godbole 表示，如果價格跌破頂部，前紀錄高點 69,000 美元左右可能會再次受到考驗，經典的熊市燭線可能會延伸至 60,000 美元的下方。

Maksym Sakharov, co-founder of WeFi, mirrors the sentiment. "The upside volatility in the price of Bitcoin has slowed down since it crossed the $90,000 ATH range. The fact that the US Federal Reserve is no longer in a rush to cut interest rates moving forward has further forced investors to re-evaluate their bets on Bitcoin,” Sakharov said.

WeFi 聯合創始人馬克西姆·薩哈羅夫 (Maksym Sakharov) 也表達了同樣的觀點。 「自從突破 9 萬美元區間以來，比特幣價格的上行波動已經放緩。聯準會不再急於降息的事實進一步迫使投資者重新評估他們的押注。比特幣，」薩哈羅夫說。

"Should the Fed continue to adopt a mildly hawkish stance toward the rate, the attractiveness of Bitcoin may decrease,” Sakharov added.

薩哈羅夫補充道：“如果聯準會繼續對利率採取溫和鷹派立場，比特幣的吸引力可能會下降。”