交易员相信，比特币价格达到 10 万美元不再是梦想，但短期内将出现突破顶峰的警告

QCP 交易员预计未来几个月价格将上涨至 100,000 美元，比当前超过 93,000 美元的纪录高出近 10%，这些收益将流入山寨币，标志着普遍的“山寨币季节”。

Bitcoin (BTC) traders are now predicting a run to $100,000 as the new record high, up nearly 10% from the current all-time high of over $93,000, with those gains set to flow into altcoins, signaling the start of a broader "alt season."

比特币 (BTC) 交易员现在预测，比特币价格将升至 100,000 美元，创下新高，较当前超过 93,000 美元的历史高点上涨近 10%，这些收益将流入山寨币，标志着更广泛的“山寨币”的开始。季节。”

Bitcoin's new all-time high is now in sight as the asset continues to rally swiftly in the wake of the U.S. midterm elections, which saw Republicans largely victorious in the House and Senate. Those gains, coupled with the pro-crypto stance of several winning candidates, have fueled optimism in the crypto market.

比特币的历史新高现在已经在望，因为在美国中期选举之后，比特币继续迅速上涨，共和党在参众两院基本上取得了胜利。这些成果，加上几位获胜候选人支持加密货币的立场，加剧了加密货币市场的乐观情绪。

"Predictions of BTC at 100K aren't a pipedream anymore as the political and institutional stars start to align," traders at Singapore-based QCP Capital noted in a Telegram broadcast on Tuesday. "Despite having net ETF outflows last Thursday and Friday, BTC still looks relatively well supported and institutional adoption remains strong."

总部位于新加坡的 QCP Capital 交易员在周二的 Telegram 广播中指出：“随着政治和机构明星开始一致，比特币价格达到 10 万的预测不再是白日梦。” “尽管上周四和周五 ETF 出现净流出，但 BTC 看起来仍然得到相对良好的支持，机构采用率仍然强劲。”

The bull run saw major bitcoin (BTC) backer MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet both revealing fresh BTC purchases on Monday, with the former now holding 1.5% of the asset's total supply.

在牛市中，主要比特币 (BTC) 支持者 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 和 Metaplanet 周一均透露了新的 BTC 购买情况，前者目前持有该资产总供应量的 1.5%。

QCP traders expect a run to $100,000 — nearly 10% higher than the current record of over $93,000 — in the coming months, with those gains flowing into altcoins in a mark of a general "alt season."

QCP 交易员预计未来几个月价格将上涨至 100,000 美元，比当前超过 93,000 美元的纪录高出近 10%，这些收益将流入山寨币，标志着普遍的“山寨币季节”。

"BTC's dominance is around 60% now and will probably need to be under 58% to signal the start of altcoin season. We anticipate pro-crypto policies from the Trump administration and more rate cuts. We won't be surprised to see altcoin season in full swing in the coming months," QCP traders noted.

“比特币的主导地位目前约为 60%，可能需要低于 58% 才能预示山寨币季节的开始。我们预计特朗普政府将出台支持加密货币的政策，并进一步降息。看到山寨币季节到来，我们不会感到惊讶未来几个月将全面展开，”QCP 交易员指出。

Banks and traditional finance analysts have issued targets as high as $200,000 after Republican Donald Trump's victory in the November elections.

共和党人唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 在 11 月大选中获胜后，银行和传统金融分析师发布了高达 20 万美元的目标。

A retail sentiment gauge by U.S. bank JPMorgan rose to a record high of 4 earlier this week, suggesting renewed demand from smaller professional investors. The measure is designed to gauge the sentiment of retail investors toward cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin, based on the activity in the family of BTC products, including spot ETFs.

美国银行摩根大通的零售信心指数本周早些时候升至历史新高4，表明小型专业投资者的需求重新出现。该措施旨在根据包括现货 ETF 在内的 BTC 产品系列的活动来衡量散户投资者对加密货币（尤其是比特币）的情绪。

However, not all are optimistic, with some expressing concerns about a near-term market top.

然而，并非所有人都持乐观态度，一些人对近期市场见顶表示担忧。

"We feel that the 'easy' part of the rally has been done and the next stage will be much trickier with more price choppiness and potential for drawdowns," Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message. "Bitcoin dominance remains on a one-way trend higher reminiscent of the mega-cap dominance in SPX, and is not particularly desirable for this stage of the crypto ecosystem."

SOFA 的洞察主管 Augustine Fan 在 Telegram 消息中告诉 CoinDesk：“我们认为反弹的‘简单’部分已经完成，下一阶段将更加棘手，价格波动更大，并有可能出现回撤。” “比特币的主导地位仍然处于单向趋势，让人想起 SPX 的大型股主导地位，对于加密生态系统的现阶段来说并不是特别理想。”

"We'll be looking for a potential blow-off top in the near term with market sentiment at highly frothy levels," Fan added.

范补充道：“随着市场情绪处于高度泡沫化水平，我们将在短期内寻找潜在的爆发性顶部。”

A blow-off top is a chart pattern recognized in technical analysis that indicates a rapid and steep increase in the price of an asset, followed by an equally rapid decline.

爆炸顶是技术分析中认可的一种图表模式，表明资产价格快速急剧上涨，随后同样快速下跌。

In case of a blow off top, the former record high of around $69,000 could be tested again, with a classic bear market wick potentially extending up to lower $60,000, said CoinDesk's senior markets analyst Omkar Godbole.

CoinDesk 的高级市场分析师 Omkar Godbole 表示，如果价格跌破顶部，前纪录高点 69,000 美元左右可能会再次受到考验，经典的熊市烛线可能会延伸至 60,000 美元的下方。

Maksym Sakharov, co-founder of WeFi, mirrors the sentiment. "The upside volatility in the price of Bitcoin has slowed down since it crossed the $90,000 ATH range. The fact that the US Federal Reserve is no longer in a rush to cut interest rates moving forward has further forced investors to re-evaluate their bets on Bitcoin,” Sakharov said.

WeFi 联合创始人马克西姆·萨哈罗夫 (Maksym Sakharov) 也表达了同样的观点。 “自突破 90,000 美元区间以来，比特币价格的上行波动已经放缓。美联储不再急于降息的事实进一步迫使投资者重新评估他们的押注。比特币，”萨哈罗夫说。

"Should the Fed continue to adopt a mildly hawkish stance toward the rate, the attractiveness of Bitcoin may decrease,” Sakharov added.

萨哈罗夫补充道：“如果美联储继续对利率采取温和鹰派立场，比特币的吸引力可能会下降。”