比特币的BTC/USD与传统风险资产（尤其是低质量银行）的相关性增加是在当前市场环境中了解其价格轨迹的关键

宏分析师资本流量已经确定比特币的BTC/USD与传统风险资产（尤其是罗素指数中低质量的银行）的相关性增加是了解其在当前市场环境中其价格轨迹的关键。

Macro analyst Capital Flows has identified Bitcoin's BTC/USD increasing correlation with traditional risk assets, particularly low-quality banks in the Russell index, as key to understanding its price trajectory in the current market environment.

宏分析师资本流量已经确定比特币的BTC/USD与传统风险资产（尤其是罗素指数中低质量的银行）的相关性增加是了解其在当前市场环境中其价格轨迹的关键。

What Happened: "Bitcoin is having a greater convergence with traditional risk asset flows but remains at the far end of the risk curve, which explains why capital must move outward from less risky assets to reach Bitcoin in the current market phase," stated Capital Flows in a thread on X (formerly Twitter).

发生的事情是：“比特币与传统风险资产流有更大的融合，但仍处于风险曲线的尽头，这解释了为什么资本必须从较小的风险资产向外移动，以便在当前市场阶段到达比特币，” X线程（以前的Twitter）中的资本流量。

This positioning explains why Bitcoin has been "moving lockstep with all of the lowest quality banks in the Russell" – both are highly sensitive to changes in macro liquidity conditions.

这种定位解释了为什么比特币一直“与拉塞尔所有质量最低的银行一起移动锁” - 两者都对宏流动性条件的变化高度敏感。

The analyst described the current macro backdrop as "neutral," with interest rates having "come down marginally" but the carry trade continuing to create risk for assets while "the quantity of money in the system isn't expanding like it used to."

分析师将当前的宏观背景描述为“中立”，利率“略有下降”，但随身携带贸易继续造成资产的风险，而“系统中的货币数量并没有像以前那样扩大”。

Cross-currency basis swaps show no signs of a "massive injection of macro liquidity," and year-to-date ETF flows remain "only marginally positive."

跨货币基础掉期没有显示出“大量注入宏流动性”的迹象，而年初至今的ETF流仍然“仅略有积极”。

For Bitcoin to reach the $100,000 range, Capital Flows emphasized the need for a "durable change in macro liquidity which isn't taking place right now."

为了使比特币达到100,000美元的范围，Capital Flow强调了“目前尚未发生的宏流动性变化”的必要性。

Without such a shift, another equity market decline could push Bitcoin down to the "$72-75,000 range" as implied volatility premiums increase.

没有这样的转变，另一个股票市场下降可能会将比特币降低到“ 72-75,000美元范围”，因为隐含的波动溢价增加。

The analyst highlighted Strategy's MSTR continued Bitcoin purchases as a positive factor, describing the company as "continuing to hit the bid and take on more risk to buy massive amounts of Bitcoin."

这位分析师强调，战略的MSTR继续购买是一个积极的因素，称该公司“继续竞标并承担更多的风险购买大量比特币”。

Both Strategy and Coinbase COIN currently show an "implied volatility discount" after the recent market bounce, suggesting "upside is likely limited" from a positioning perspective.

在最近的市场反弹之后，战略和共插币硬币目前都显示出“隐含的波动折扣”，这表明从定位的角度来看，“上升空间可能是有限的”。

Also Read: Bitcoin Tumbles Below $85,000: Is The Bull Run Over?

另请阅读：比特币低于$ 85,000：公牛跑了吗？

What's Next: Despite these short-term concerns, Capital Flows noted Bitcoin's current 22% drawdown from all-time highs is "nowhere near as bad as it could be compared to historical parallels," reflecting Bitcoin's gradual integration "into the legacy financial system as a digital gold type of asset."

接下来是：尽管有这些短期问题，资本流动指出，比特币目前从历史高处的22％缩水“远不那么糟糕，这与历史相似之处差不多，这反映了比特币的逐步整合“作为数字黄金资产的遗产金融系统”。