比特幣的BTC/USD與傳統風險資產（尤其是低質量銀行）的相關性增加是在當前市場環境中了解其價格軌蹟的關鍵

宏分析師資本流量已經確定比特幣的BTC/USD與傳統風險資產（尤其是羅素指數中低質量的銀行）的相關性增加是了解其在當前市場環境中其價格軌蹟的關鍵。

Macro analyst Capital Flows has identified Bitcoin's BTC/USD increasing correlation with traditional risk assets, particularly low-quality banks in the Russell index, as key to understanding its price trajectory in the current market environment.

宏分析師資本流量已經確定比特幣的BTC/USD與傳統風險資產（尤其是羅素指數中低質量的銀行）的相關性增加是了解其在當前市場環境中其價格軌蹟的關鍵。

What Happened: "Bitcoin is having a greater convergence with traditional risk asset flows but remains at the far end of the risk curve, which explains why capital must move outward from less risky assets to reach Bitcoin in the current market phase," stated Capital Flows in a thread on X (formerly Twitter).

發生的事情是：“比特幣與傳統風險資產流有更大的融合，但仍處於風險曲線的盡頭，這解釋了為什麼資本必須從較小的風險資產向外移動，以便在當前市場階段到達比特幣，” X線程（以前的Twitter）中的資本流量。

This positioning explains why Bitcoin has been "moving lockstep with all of the lowest quality banks in the Russell" – both are highly sensitive to changes in macro liquidity conditions.

這種定位解釋了為什麼比特幣一直“與拉塞爾所有質量最低的銀行一起移動鎖” - 兩者都對宏流動性條件的變化高度敏感。

The analyst described the current macro backdrop as "neutral," with interest rates having "come down marginally" but the carry trade continuing to create risk for assets while "the quantity of money in the system isn't expanding like it used to."

分析師將當前的宏觀背景描述為“中立”，利率“略有下降”，但隨身攜帶貿易繼續造成資產的風險，而“系統中的貨幣數量並沒有像以前那樣擴大”。

Cross-currency basis swaps show no signs of a "massive injection of macro liquidity," and year-to-date ETF flows remain "only marginally positive."

跨貨幣基礎掉期沒有顯示出“大量注入宏流動性”的跡象，而年初至今的ETF流仍然“僅略有積極”。

For Bitcoin to reach the $100,000 range, Capital Flows emphasized the need for a "durable change in macro liquidity which isn't taking place right now."

為了使比特幣達到100,000美元的範圍，Capital Flow強調了“目前尚未發生的宏流動性變化”的必要性。

Without such a shift, another equity market decline could push Bitcoin down to the "$72-75,000 range" as implied volatility premiums increase.

沒有這樣的轉變，另一個股票市場下降可能會將比特幣降低到“ 72-75,000美元範圍”，因為隱含的波動溢價增加。

The analyst highlighted Strategy's MSTR continued Bitcoin purchases as a positive factor, describing the company as "continuing to hit the bid and take on more risk to buy massive amounts of Bitcoin."

這位分析師強調，戰略的MSTR繼續購買是一個積極的因素，稱該公司“繼續競標並承擔更多的風險購買大量比特幣”。

Both Strategy and Coinbase COIN currently show an "implied volatility discount" after the recent market bounce, suggesting "upside is likely limited" from a positioning perspective.

在最近的市場反彈之後，戰略和共插幣硬幣目前都顯示出“隱含的波動折扣”，這表明從定位的角度來看，“上升空間可能是有限的”。

Also Read: Bitcoin Tumbles Below $85,000: Is The Bull Run Over?

另請閱讀：比特幣低於$ 85,000：公牛跑了嗎？

What's Next: Despite these short-term concerns, Capital Flows noted Bitcoin's current 22% drawdown from all-time highs is "nowhere near as bad as it could be compared to historical parallels," reflecting Bitcoin's gradual integration "into the legacy financial system as a digital gold type of asset."

接下來是：儘管有這些短期問題，資本流動指出，比特幣目前從歷史高處的22％縮水“遠不那麼糟糕，這與歷史相似之處差不多，這反映了比特幣的逐步整合“作為數字黃金資產的遺產金融系統”。