受 2024 年第四季度积极季节性影响，比特币 (BTC) 有望创造历史新高 (ATH)

在选举前后关键日期到期的期权的溢价更高，隐含波动率预计将在 11 月 8 日达到每日波动率 100 的峰值

Bitcoin (BTC) price action appears to be setting the stage for a new all-time high (ATH) in the coming weeks, fueled by positive seasonality and macroeconomic tailwinds.

在积极的季节性和宏观经济顺风的推动下，比特币（BTC）的价格走势似乎正在为未来几周创下新的历史高点（ATH）奠定基础。

After BTC surged past the $71,000 mark on October 28, it sparked anticipation for a new ATH, considering that the previous peak was at $73,737 in March this year. Despite crossing the $70,000 threshold several times since then, BTC has yet to set a new record high.

10 月 28 日 BTC 飙升至 71,000 美元大关后，考虑到今年 3 月份的峰值为 73,737 美元，引发了对新 ATH 的预期。尽管此后多次突破 70,000 美元大关，但 BTC 尚未创下新高。

However, according to a recent report by cryptocurrency trading platform Bitfinex, Bitcoin might be poised for a new ATH shortly after the US presidential election.

然而，根据加密货币交易平台 Bitfinex 最近的一份报告，比特币可能会在美国总统大选后不久创下新的 ATH。

Bitcoin has often been touted as a “Trump trade,” exhibiting a strong correlation with Donald Trump's election chances. For instance, after a 6% decline last week, BTC has recovered all losses, which coincides with Trump's rising election odds on Polymarket.

比特币经常被吹捧为“特朗普交易”，与唐纳德·特朗普的选举机会有很强的相关性。例如，在上周下跌 6% 后，BTC 已收复所有损失，这与 Polymarket 上特朗普的当选赔率不断上升相吻合。

At the time of writing, Trump leads with a 66.1% chance of winning, compared to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris at 33.9%. Nevertheless, opinion polls indicate a close race, making the election outcome uncertain.

截至撰写本文时，特朗普以 66.1% 的获胜几率领先，而民主党候选人卡马拉·哈里斯 (Kamala Harris) 的获胜几率为 33.9%。然而，民意调查显示，竞选结果势均力敌，导致选举结果存在不确定性。

A potential Trump victory is also driving up the options market premiums. The report highlights that while short-term volatility may increase closer to the election results, BTC's long-term bullish outlook remains intact. It states:

特朗普的潜在胜利也推高了期权市场溢价。该报告强调，虽然短期波动可能会在接近选举结果时加剧，但比特币的长期看涨前景仍然完好无损。它指出：

"Options expiring on key dates around the election are commanding higher premiums, with implied volatility set to peak at 100 daily vol on November 8th, just after Election Day – indicating that the market is bracing for potential turbulence."

“在选举前后的关键日期到期的期权需要更高的溢价，隐含波动率将在 11 月 8 日选举日之后达到峰值 100 日交易量，这表明市场正在为潜在的动荡做好准备。”

"Regardless of the election outcome, short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual though we remain confident in longer-term price appreciation."

“无论选举结果如何，尽管我们对长期价格升值仍然充满信心，但预计短期波动性将高于平常。”

It is important to note that BTC slipped as low as $52,756 in September; however, the flagship digital asset rallied nearly 30% in October, inspiring some confidence in the “Uptober” narrative.

值得注意的是，9 月份 BTC 跌至 52,756 美元；然而，这一旗舰数字资产 10 月份上涨了近 30%，激发了人们对“Uptober”叙述的信心。

Bitcoin benefits from favorable Q4 seasonality

比特币受益于第四季度有利的季节性

The report also emphasizes that BTC is positioned to benefit from "favorable Q4 seasonality."

该报告还强调，比特币有望受益于“有利的第四季度季节性”。

Historically, Q4 has been fruitful for BTC during halving years, yielding a median quarterly return of 31.34%.

从历史上看，BTC 在减半的第四季度一直是硕果累累的，季度回报率中位数为 31.34%。

Moreover, the buildup in call options expiring December 27 — particularly at the $80,000 strike price — also bolsters BTC's Q4 2024 bullish outlook. The report adds:

此外，12 月 27 日到期的看涨期权的增加——尤其是 80,000 美元的执行价格——也支撑了 BTC 2024 年第四季度的看涨前景。报告补充道：

"As options open interest climbs to new highs, the market is showing signs of positioning for a post-election surge, potentially propelling Bitcoin towards—and beyond—its all-time high of $73,666."

“随着期权未平仓合约攀升至新高，市场正显示出为大选后飙升做好准备的迹象，这可能推动比特币升至并超越 73,666 美元的历史高点。”

In related news earlier this month, crypto research firm K33 Research noted that the recent positive developments in the FTX fiasco are driving Bitcoin's bullish Q4 narrative.

在本月早些时候的相关新闻中，加密货币研究公司 K33 Research 指出，FTX 惨败的近期积极进展正在推动比特币第四季度的看涨叙述。

BTC is currently trading at $71,110, up 3.1% in the past 24 hours and around 3.5% away from its current ATH. Whether BTC will continue its upward trend through the rest of the quarter or face another rejection remains to be seen.

BTC 目前交易价格为 71,110 美元，过去 24 小时上涨 3.1%，较当前最高价上涨约 3.5%。比特币是否会在本季度剩余时间内继续保持上涨趋势，还是面临再次拒绝，还有待观察。