受 2024 年第四季積極季節性影響，比特幣 (BTC) 預計將創造歷史新高 (ATH)

在選舉前後關鍵日期到期的選擇權的溢價更高，隱含波動率預計將在 11 月 8 日達到每日波動率 100 的峰值

Bitcoin (BTC) price action appears to be setting the stage for a new all-time high (ATH) in the coming weeks, fueled by positive seasonality and macroeconomic tailwinds.

在積極的季節性和宏觀經濟順風的推動下，比特幣（BTC）的價格走勢似乎正在為未來幾週創下新的歷史高點（ATH）奠定基礎。

After BTC surged past the $71,000 mark on October 28, it sparked anticipation for a new ATH, considering that the previous peak was at $73,737 in March this year. Despite crossing the $70,000 threshold several times since then, BTC has yet to set a new record high.

10 月 28 日 BTC 飆升至 71,000 美元大關後，考慮到今年 3 月的峰值為 73,737 美元，引發了對新 ATH 的預期。儘管此後多次突破 7 萬美元大關，但 BTC 尚未創下新高。

However, according to a recent report by cryptocurrency trading platform Bitfinex, Bitcoin might be poised for a new ATH shortly after the US presidential election.

然而，根據加密貨幣交易平台 Bitfinex 最近的一份報告，比特幣可能會在美國總統大選後不久創下新的 ATH。

Bitcoin has often been touted as a “Trump trade,” exhibiting a strong correlation with Donald Trump's election chances. For instance, after a 6% decline last week, BTC has recovered all losses, which coincides with Trump's rising election odds on Polymarket.

比特幣經常被吹捧為“川普交易”，與唐納德·川普的選舉機會有很強的相關性。例如，在上週下跌 6% 後，BTC 已收復所有損失，這與 川普在 Polymarket 上的當選賠率不斷上升相吻合。

At the time of writing, Trump leads with a 66.1% chance of winning, compared to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris at 33.9%. Nevertheless, opinion polls indicate a close race, making the election outcome uncertain.

截至本文撰寫時，川普以 66.1% 的獲勝幾率領先，而民主黨候選人卡馬拉·哈里斯 (Kamala Harris) 的獲勝幾率為 33.9%。然而，民調顯示，競選結果勢均力敵，導致選舉結果存在不確定性。

A potential Trump victory is also driving up the options market premiums. The report highlights that while short-term volatility may increase closer to the election results, BTC's long-term bullish outlook remains intact. It states:

川普的潛在勝利也推高了選擇權市場溢價。報告強調，雖然短期波動可能在接近選舉結果時加劇，但比特幣的長期看漲前景仍然完好無損。它指出：

"Options expiring on key dates around the election are commanding higher premiums, with implied volatility set to peak at 100 daily vol on November 8th, just after Election Day – indicating that the market is bracing for potential turbulence."

「在選舉前後的關鍵日期到期的選擇權需要更高的溢價，隱含波動率將在 11 月 8 日選舉日之後達到峰值 100 日交易量，這表明市場正在為潛在的動盪做好準備。”

"Regardless of the election outcome, short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual though we remain confident in longer-term price appreciation."

“無論選舉結果如何，儘管我們對長期價格升值仍然充滿信心，但預計短期波動性將高於平常。”

It is important to note that BTC slipped as low as $52,756 in September; however, the flagship digital asset rallied nearly 30% in October, inspiring some confidence in the “Uptober” narrative.

值得注意的是，9 月 BTC 曾跌至 52,756 美元；然而，這項旗艦數位資產 10 月上漲了近 30%，激發了人們對「Uptober」敘事的一些信心。

Bitcoin benefits from favorable Q4 seasonality

比特幣受益於第四季有利的季節性

The report also emphasizes that BTC is positioned to benefit from "favorable Q4 seasonality."

該報告還強調，比特幣有望受益於「有利的第四季季節性」。

Historically, Q4 has been fruitful for BTC during halving years, yielding a median quarterly return of 31.34%.

從歷史上看，BTC 在減半的第四季一直是碩果累累的，季度回報率中位數為 31.34%。

Moreover, the buildup in call options expiring December 27 — particularly at the $80,000 strike price — also bolsters BTC's Q4 2024 bullish outlook. The report adds:

此外，12 月 27 日到期的看漲期權的增加——尤其是 80,000 美元的執行價格——也支撐了 BTC 2024 年第四季度的看漲前景。報告補充：

"As options open interest climbs to new highs, the market is showing signs of positioning for a post-election surge, potentially propelling Bitcoin towards—and beyond—its all-time high of $73,666."

“隨著期權未平倉合約攀升至新高，市場正顯示出為大選後飆升做好準備的跡象，這可能推動比特幣升至並超越 73,666 美元的歷史高點。”

In related news earlier this month, crypto research firm K33 Research noted that the recent positive developments in the FTX fiasco are driving Bitcoin's bullish Q4 narrative.

在本月稍早的相關新聞中，加密貨幣研究公司 K33 Research 指出，FTX 慘敗的近期積極進展正在推動比特幣第四季的看漲敘事。

BTC is currently trading at $71,110, up 3.1% in the past 24 hours and around 3.5% away from its current ATH. Whether BTC will continue its upward trend through the rest of the quarter or face another rejection remains to be seen.

BTC 目前交易價格為 71,110 美元，過去 24 小時上漲 3.1%，較目前最高價上漲約 3.5%。比特幣是否會在本季剩餘時間內繼續維持上漲趨勢，還是面臨再次拒絕，還有待觀察。