Bitwise 資訊長 Matt Hougan 表示，在美元不崩盤的情況下，比特幣可能達到 20 萬美元

馬特·霍根表示，比特幣的價值來自於兩種獨立的力量。比特幣作為數位價值儲存手段的作用以及法定貨幣的通貨膨脹壓力。

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) believes that the flagship cryptocurrency could go as high as $200,000 without the dollar collapsing.

Bitwise 首席投資長 (CIO) 認為，在美元不崩盤的情況下，旗艦加密貨幣的價格可能高達 20 萬美元。

Hougan stated that Bitcoin draws its value from two independent forces. These forces are Bitcoin’s role as a digital store of value and inflationary pressure on Fiat currencies. He went on to state that most times analysts neglect Bitcoin’s broader potential while assuming that its growth depends on a weakening dollar.

霍根表示，比特幣的價值來自兩種獨立的力量。這些力量是比特幣作為數位價值儲存手段的作用以及法定貨幣的通膨壓力。他接著表示，大多數時候分析師都會忽略比特幣的更廣泛潛力，同時假設其成長取決於美元疲軟。

According to Hougan, the first driver of Bitcoin’s astronomical growth is the asset’s position as a digital equivalent to gold. Despite Bitcoin representing only 7% of gold’s estimated $18 trillion market, Bitcoin market cap has the potential to grow significantly as it gains acceptance among investors.

霍根表示，比特幣天文數字成長的首要推動力是該資產作為黃金等價物的地位。儘管比特幣僅佔黃金估計 18 兆美元市場的 7%，但隨著投資者的接受，比特幣的市值有可能大幅成長。

The Bitwise CIO argued that Bitcoin’s price could rise even if it captured just 25% of gold’s market pushing it well past $200,000.

Bitwise CIO 認為，即使比特幣僅佔黃金市場 25% 的份額，使其遠遠超過 20 萬美元，其價格也可能上漲。

The second force that will drive Bitcoins expansive growth according to Hougan stems from the possible debasement of fiat currencies, particularly the dollar, which could drive more investors toward assets like Bitcoin as a hedge. Assets like Bitcoin are increasingly seen as a hedge against inflation.

Hougan 認為，推動比特幣大幅成長的第二股力量來自法定貨幣（尤其是美元）可能貶值，這可能會促使更多投資者轉向比特幣等資產作為對沖工具。比特幣等資產越來越被視為對沖通貨膨脹的工具。

With the US federal debt sitting at $36 trillion, Hougan sees growing fiscal pressures forcing investors to seek an alternative store of values benefitting assets like Bitcoin.

由於美國聯邦債務高達 36 兆美元，Hougan 認為日益增長的財政壓力迫使投資者尋求有利於比特幣等資產的替代價值存儲方式。

Matt Hougan expanded his thought process with an X thread to his community relaying a conversation he had with a financial advisor as regards the subject topic.

馬特·霍根 (Matt Hougan) 透過 X 線索擴展了他的思維過程，向他的社區轉發了他與財務顧問就該主題進行的對話。

“ 1/ A financial advisor asked me a great question over dinner last week: Does the U.S. dollar need to collapse for bitcoin to hit $200,000?

「 1/ 上週晚餐時，一位財務顧問問了我一個很好的問題：美元是否需要崩潰，比特幣才能達到 20 萬美元？

The answer is “no.”

答案是「否」。

Here’s why…

這就是為什麼…

2/ When you invest in Bitcoin, you’re making two bets at once:

2/ 當您投資比特幣時，您同時進行兩項投注：

i) Bitcoin will succeed in establishing itself as a new “store of value” asset

i) 比特幣將成功地將自己打造成一種新的「價值儲存」資產

ii) Governments will abuse fiat currencies and increase demand for “store of value” assets.

ii) 政府將濫用法定貨幣並增加對「價值儲存」資產的需求。

3/ The two arguments are separate.

3/ 這兩個論點是不同的。

Argument 1: Bitcoin is ~7% of gold’s $18tr market cap today. If it “matures” and becomes 50% the size of gold, every bitcoin is worth >$400k.

論點 1：比特幣約佔目前黃金 18tr 市值的 7%。如果它「成熟」並達到黃金大小的 50%，那麼每個比特幣的價值將超過 40 萬美元。

Argument 2: The “store of value” market is growing because governments are abusing their currencies.

論點 2：「價值儲存」市場正在成長，因為政府濫用其貨幣。

4/ Importantly, these arguments compound. If bitcoin matures and the store of value market doubles, you quickly get to seven figures.

4/ 重要的是，這些論點是複合的。如果比特幣成熟且價值儲存市場翻倍，你很快就會達到七位數。

FWIW, I think this is the most likely scenario eventually.

FWIW，我認為這最終是最有可能的情況。

5/ So, no, the dollar doesn’t need to collapse for bitcoin to hit $200k. All you need is Bitcoin to continue on its current path of maturing as an institutional asset.

5/ 所以，不，美元不需要崩潰，比特幣就能達到 20 萬美元。你所需要的只是比特幣繼續走目前作為機構資產的成熟之路。

But it’s increasingly looking like both parts of the argument will come true.

但越來越多的證據表明，這兩個論點都將成為現實。

That’s why Bitcoin is surging toward all-time highs “Matt Hougan tweeted

這就是比特幣飆升至歷史新高的原因」Matt Hougan 發推文

Besides Matt Horgan’s fundamental analysis of Bitcoin’s Price surge, other prediction models support the intrinsic growth of Bitcoin over time.

除了馬特·霍根對比特幣價格飆升的基本面分析之外，其他預測模型也支持比特幣隨著時間的推移的內在增長。

Andrey Ignatenko’s Math Bitcoin price prediction predicts the growth of Bitcoin using Mathematics as its sole methodology. It Predicts the price of Bitcoin up to 2030,2040 and 2050 with Bitcoin predicted to hit six figures before the year 2030.

Andrey Ignatenko 的數學比特幣價格預測使用數學作為唯一方法來預測比特幣的成長。它預測比特幣的價格到 2030 年、2040 年和 2050 年，比特幣預計在 2030 年之前將達到六位數。