Bitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 表示，在美元不崩盘的情况下，比特币可能会达到 20 万美元

马特·霍根表示，比特币的价值来自于两种独立的力量。比特币作为数字价值储存手段的作用以及法定货币的通胀压力。

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) believes that the flagship cryptocurrency could go as high as $200,000 without the dollar collapsing.

Bitwise 首席投资官 (CIO) 认为，在美元不崩盘的情况下，旗舰加密货币的价格可能会高达 20 万美元。

Hougan stated that Bitcoin draws its value from two independent forces. These forces are Bitcoin’s role as a digital store of value and inflationary pressure on Fiat currencies. He went on to state that most times analysts neglect Bitcoin’s broader potential while assuming that its growth depends on a weakening dollar.

霍根表示，比特币的价值来自两种独立的力量。这些力量是比特币作为数字价值储存手段的作用以及法定货币的通胀压力。他接着表示，大多数时候分析师都会忽视比特币的更广泛潜力，同时假设其增长取决于美元疲软。

According to Hougan, the first driver of Bitcoin’s astronomical growth is the asset’s position as a digital equivalent to gold. Despite Bitcoin representing only 7% of gold’s estimated $18 trillion market, Bitcoin market cap has the potential to grow significantly as it gains acceptance among investors.

霍根表示，比特币天文数字增长的首要推动力是该资产作为黄金等价物的地位。尽管比特币仅占黄金估计 18 万亿美元市场的 7%，但随着投资者的接受，比特币的市值有可能大幅增长。

The Bitwise CIO argued that Bitcoin’s price could rise even if it captured just 25% of gold’s market pushing it well past $200,000.

Bitwise CIO 认为，即使比特币仅占据黄金市场 25% 的份额，使其远远超过 20 万美元，其价格也可能上涨。

The second force that will drive Bitcoins expansive growth according to Hougan stems from the possible debasement of fiat currencies, particularly the dollar, which could drive more investors toward assets like Bitcoin as a hedge. Assets like Bitcoin are increasingly seen as a hedge against inflation.

Hougan 认为，推动比特币大幅增长的第二股力量来自法定货币（尤其是美元）可能贬值，这可能会促使更多投资者转向比特币等资产作为对冲工具。比特币等资产越来越被视为对冲通胀的工具。

With the US federal debt sitting at $36 trillion, Hougan sees growing fiscal pressures forcing investors to seek an alternative store of values benefitting assets like Bitcoin.

由于美国联邦债务高达 36 万亿美元，Hougan 认为日益增长的财政压力迫使投资者寻求有利于比特币等资产的替代价值存储方式。

Matt Hougan expanded his thought process with an X thread to his community relaying a conversation he had with a financial advisor as regards the subject topic.

马特·霍根 (Matt Hougan) 通过 X 线索扩展了他的思维过程，向他的社区转发了他与财务顾问就该主题进行的对话。

“ 1/ A financial advisor asked me a great question over dinner last week: Does the U.S. dollar need to collapse for bitcoin to hit $200,000?

“ 1/ 上周晚餐时，一位财务顾问问了我一个很好的问题：美元是否需要崩溃，比特币才能达到 20 万美元？

The answer is “no.”

答案是“不”。

Here’s why…

这就是为什么……

2/ When you invest in Bitcoin, you’re making two bets at once:

2/ 当您投资比特币时，您同时进行两项投注：

i) Bitcoin will succeed in establishing itself as a new “store of value” asset

i) 比特币将成功地将自己打造成一种新的“价值储存”资产

ii) Governments will abuse fiat currencies and increase demand for “store of value” assets.

ii) 政府将滥用法定货币并增加对“价值储存”资产的需求。

3/ The two arguments are separate.

3/ 这两个论点是不同的。

Argument 1: Bitcoin is ~7% of gold’s $18tr market cap today. If it “matures” and becomes 50% the size of gold, every bitcoin is worth >$400k.

论点 1：比特币约占目前黄金 18tr 市值的 7%。如果它“成熟”并达到黄金大小的 50%，那么每个比特币的价值将超过 40 万美元。

Argument 2: The “store of value” market is growing because governments are abusing their currencies.

论点 2：“价值储存”市场正在增长，因为政府滥用其货币。

4/ Importantly, these arguments compound. If bitcoin matures and the store of value market doubles, you quickly get to seven figures.

4/ 重要的是，这些论点是复合的。如果比特币成熟并且价值储存市场翻倍，你很快就会达到七位数。

FWIW, I think this is the most likely scenario eventually.

FWIW，我认为这最终是最有可能的情况。

5/ So, no, the dollar doesn’t need to collapse for bitcoin to hit $200k. All you need is Bitcoin to continue on its current path of maturing as an institutional asset.

5/ 所以，不，美元不需要崩溃，比特币就能达到 20 万美元。你所需要的只是比特币继续走目前作为机构资产的成熟之路。

But it’s increasingly looking like both parts of the argument will come true.

但越来越多的证据表明，这两个论点都将成为现实。

That’s why Bitcoin is surging toward all-time highs “Matt Hougan tweeted

这就是比特币飙升至历史新高的原因”Matt Hougan 发推文

Besides Matt Horgan’s fundamental analysis of Bitcoin’s Price surge, other prediction models support the intrinsic growth of Bitcoin over time.

除了马特·霍根对比特币价格飙升的基本面分析之外，其他预测模型也支持比特币随着时间的推移的内在增长。

Andrey Ignatenko’s Math Bitcoin price prediction predicts the growth of Bitcoin using Mathematics as its sole methodology. It Predicts the price of Bitcoin up to 2030,2040 and 2050 with Bitcoin predicted to hit six figures before the year 2030.

Andrey Ignatenko 的数学比特币价格预测使用数学作为唯一方法来预测比特币的增长。它预测比特币的价格到 2030 年、2040 年和 2050 年，比特币预计在 2030 年之前将达到六位数。