美國大選前比特幣 (BTC) 價格預測飆升，市場分析師關注 8 萬美元目標

市場分析師和選擇權交易員越來越看好比特幣 (BTC)，許多人預測，無論誰入主白宮，其價格都可能飆升至 8 萬美元甚至更高。

As the US presidential election draws near, its potential impact on the cryptocurrency market is a subject of keen interest. While some anticipate a Bitcoin rally to $80,000 or higher, irrespective of the election outcome, others believe the results may influence Bitcoin's price trajectory. Here's a closer look at the recent market developments and analysts' perspectives:

隨著美國總統大選的臨近，其對加密貨幣市場的潛在影響備受關注。儘管有些人預計，無論選舉結果如何，比特幣都會上漲至 8 萬美元或更高，但其他人則認為，選舉結果可能會影響比特幣的價格軌跡。以下是對近期市場發展和分析師觀點的詳細了解：

Bitcoin's recent price performance has been impressive, with a 66% gain in 2024. This resilience is notable amidst scaled-back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased scrutiny of stablecoin Tether.

比特幣最近的價格表現令人印象深刻，2024 年上漲了 66%。

Anticipating a Potential Surge to $80,000:

預計價格可能飆升至 8 萬美元：

According to market analysts, Bitcoin's price movements are largely reflecting the anticipation surrounding the US election. Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Australia Pty, highlights that a sustained break above $70,000 could pave the way for a new all-time high, potentially exceeding March's record of $73,798.

市場分析師表示，比特幣的價格走勢很大程度上反映了對美國大選的預期。 IG Australia Pty 市場分析師 Tony Sycamore 強調，持續突破 7 萬美元可能為歷史新高鋪平道路，有可能超過 3 月創下的 73,798 美元紀錄。

Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick also anticipates a strong correlation between the election outcome and Bitcoin's price trajectory. His analysis, based on options data and betting odds, predicts that Bitcoin will reach $73,000 by election day, with a further surge past $80,000 shortly after.

渣打銀行的傑弗瑞·肯德里克也預期選舉結果與比特幣的價格軌跡之間存在著強烈的相關性。他根據選擇權數據和投注賠率進行分析，預測比特幣到選舉日將達到 73,000 美元，不久後將進一步飆升至 8 萬美元以上。

Options traders are also placing significant bets on a Bitcoin breakout, with a notable focus on call options at the $80,000 strike price for November and December expiry dates. This activity suggests a growing belief that Bitcoin will perform well regardless of the political outcome.

選擇權交易員也對比特幣的突破進行了大量押注，特別關注 11 月和 12 月到期日執行價格為 80,000 美元的看漲期權。這項活動表明，人們越來越相信，無論政治結果如何，比特幣都會表現良好。

David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, observes a "notable topside-heavy bias" in options activity surrounding the election. This indicates a collective belief that Bitcoin is poised to perform well irrespective of the political outcome.

FalconX 研究主管 David Lawant 觀察到，圍繞選舉的選擇權活動存在「明顯的上行偏重偏見」。這表明人們普遍相信，無論政治結果如何，比特幣都將表現良好。

Yev Feldman, co-founder of SwapGlobal, points to the decreasing put-to-call ratio as further evidence of bullish sentiment. He adds that a post-election surge is more likely than a collapse, given the limited downside potential.

SwapGlobal 聯合創始人 Yev Feldman 指出，看跌期權與看漲期權比率的下降進一步證明了看漲情緒。他補充說，鑑於下行潛力有限，大選後股市飆升的可能性比崩盤的可能性更大。

Several factors beyond the immediate impact of the election are also contributing to Bitcoin's positive momentum. These include its strong historical performance in the fourth quarter, especially in years following a halving event, and the growing institutional interest in the cryptocurrency.

除了選舉的直接影響之外，還有幾個因素也促進了比特幣的正面動能。其中包括第四季度強勁的歷史表現，尤其是在減半事件發生後的幾年裡，以及機構對加密貨幣日益增長的興趣。