Bitcoin (BTC) Primed to Create a New All-Time High (ATH), Charged by Positive Q4 2024 Seasonality

Options expiring on key dates around the election are commanding higher premiums, with implied volatility expected to peak at 100 daily vol on November 8th

Bitcoin (BTC) price action appears to be setting the stage for a new all-time high (ATH) in the coming weeks, fueled by positive seasonality and macroeconomic tailwinds.

After BTC surged past the $71,000 mark on October 28, it sparked anticipation for a new ATH, considering that the previous peak was at $73,737 in March this year. Despite crossing the $70,000 threshold several times since then, BTC has yet to set a new record high.

However, according to a recent report by cryptocurrency trading platform Bitfinex, Bitcoin might be poised for a new ATH shortly after the US presidential election.

Bitcoin has often been touted as a “Trump trade,” exhibiting a strong correlation with Donald Trump's election chances. For instance, after a 6% decline last week, BTC has recovered all losses, which coincides with Trump's rising election odds on Polymarket.

At the time of writing, Trump leads with a 66.1% chance of winning, compared to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris at 33.9%. Nevertheless, opinion polls indicate a close race, making the election outcome uncertain.

A potential Trump victory is also driving up the options market premiums. The report highlights that while short-term volatility may increase closer to the election results, BTC's long-term bullish outlook remains intact. It states:

"Options expiring on key dates around the election are commanding higher premiums, with implied volatility set to peak at 100 daily vol on November 8th, just after Election Day – indicating that the market is bracing for potential turbulence."

"Regardless of the election outcome, short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual though we remain confident in longer-term price appreciation."

It is important to note that BTC slipped as low as $52,756 in September; however, the flagship digital asset rallied nearly 30% in October, inspiring some confidence in the “Uptober” narrative.

Bitcoin benefits from favorable Q4 seasonality

The report also emphasizes that BTC is positioned to benefit from "favorable Q4 seasonality."

Historically, Q4 has been fruitful for BTC during halving years, yielding a median quarterly return of 31.34%.

Moreover, the buildup in call options expiring December 27 — particularly at the $80,000 strike price — also bolsters BTC's Q4 2024 bullish outlook. The report adds:

"As options open interest climbs to new highs, the market is showing signs of positioning for a post-election surge, potentially propelling Bitcoin towards—and beyond—its all-time high of $73,666."

In related news earlier this month, crypto research firm K33 Research noted that the recent positive developments in the FTX fiasco are driving Bitcoin's bullish Q4 narrative.

BTC is currently trading at $71,110, up 3.1% in the past 24 hours and around 3.5% away from its current ATH. Whether BTC will continue its upward trend through the rest of the quarter or face another rejection remains to be seen.