数据显示，比特币（BTC）市场处于冷静阶段，而非逆转

比特币最近飙升至 108,000 美元上方，但随后面临价格调整。这引发了人们对市场未来的担忧。

Recent price action has seen Bitcoin (BTC) surging past $108,000 before facing a price correction, sparking contrasting views on the market’s future trajectory. While the majority still anticipate the bull market continuing, some now worry that the correction, which began in March, may continue to linger.

最近的价格走势使比特币 (BTC) 在面临价格调整之前飙升至 108,000 美元以上，引发了人们对市场未来轨迹的截然不同的看法。虽然大多数人仍然预计牛市将持续，但一些人现在担心三月份开始的调整可能会继续持续下去。

However, onchain data from CryptoQuant suggests that the market is not yet in full reversal but rather in a cooling-off phase. Several key indicators can be used to gauge this.

然而，CryptoQuant 的链上数据表明，市场尚未完全逆转，而是处于冷静阶段。可以使用几个关键指标来衡量这一点。

One important indicator is the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR). This metric filters out short-term noise by removing observations less than one hour and applies a seven-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Currently, the SOPR (7-SMA) is above 1 but declining. Historically, when Bitcoin’s SOPR drops below 1, the coin tends to bounce upward afterward as selling below the cost basis triggers a shift in market sentiment.

一项重要指标是调整后支出产出利润率（aSOPR）。该指标通过删除不到一小时的观察值来过滤短期噪音，并应用 7 天简单移动平均线 (SMA)。目前，SOPR (7-SMA) 高于 1，但正在下降。从历史上看，当比特币的 SOPR 跌破 1 时，比特币往往会随后向上反弹，因为低于成本基础的抛售会引发市场情绪的转变。

Miners are holding Bitcoin, suggesting a cooling-off in bull market

矿工持有比特币，表明牛市降温

Another key indicator is the Miner Position Index (MPI), which monitors Bitcoin sales and the level of miner activity. Halving events usually see miners selling BTC closer to or before the market peaks. As of now, the MPI is decreasing, and there haven’t been many Bitcoin transfers to exchanges, indicating that the miners are holding the Bitcoin and do not plan on selling it anytime soon. However, smaller sales for operational costs might still occur.

另一个关键指标是矿工头寸指数（MPI），它监控比特币销售和矿工活动水平。减半事件通常会导致矿工在接近市场顶峰或之前抛售比特币。截至目前，MPI正在下降，并且没有太多比特币转移到交易所，这表明矿工正在持有比特币，并且不打算很快出售它。然而，出于运营成本考虑，销售额可能仍会减少。

The total network fees also highlight the activity of on-chain transactions. The fees are already decreasing, suggesting a reduction in on-chain activity. This drop could be due to the lower trading activity in the market now. It serves as an indication that the market overheated earlier on, but now this heat is cooling off.

网络费用总额也凸显了链上交易的活跃程度。费用已经在下降，表明链上活动减少。这一下降可能是由于目前市场交易活动减少所致。这表明市场早些时候过热，但现在这种热度正在降温。

Furthermore, funding rates, which reflect market sentiment, have declined. Historically, periods of extreme drops in funding rates have ended poorly, except when the rates turn negative, in which case Bitcoin has performed its best. Another price recovery could be on the cards if this scenario plays out.

此外，反映市场情绪的融资利率也有所下降。从历史上看，融资利率极度下降的时期结局不佳，除非利率变为负值，在这种情况下，比特币表现最好。如果这种情况发生，价格可能会再次回升。

As the correction unfolds, onchain data signals that the bull market is still continuing, with the current phase being more akin to a cooling-off period rather than a closing period of the cycle. However, the market remains volatile in the short term, and investors are advised to zoom out and not chase quick gains.

随着调整的展开，链上数据表明牛市仍在继续，当前阶段更像是冷静期，而不是周期的结束期。但短期内市场仍处于震荡格局，建议投资者谨慎观望，不宜急功近利。